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Don't believe the hype... Pedro's not that bad after 100

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Postby NZF » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:51 pm

DK wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:There is no doubt it has been blown out of proportion because of his poor 2003 numbers in that area.

I would say though that his pitch count from 106-120 in 2004 on that table is a very small sample size. I do believe he does struggle these days to be truly effective against decent offenses when his pitch count gets high.


While you make a good point, I respectfully disagree. His career totals from 106-120:

Code: Select all
IP    H   R  ER HR BB  K  ERA  WHIP  BAA
135.2 116 43 42 7  32 162 2.79 1.09 .228


Although this is over a career (and therefore goes over his peak years, which he arguably has passed) it still seems to indicate that he can handle effective teams. Now, powerhouses like the Yankees may be another story. But I'm just going with the evidence.


My point is I believe he struggles now. Prior to 2002 is irrelevant. No way Pedro is the same pitcher as he was in 2002 and before.
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:58 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
DK wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:There is no doubt it has been blown out of proportion because of his poor 2003 numbers in that area.

I would say though that his pitch count from 106-120 in 2004 on that table is a very small sample size. I do believe he does struggle these days to be truly effective against decent offenses when his pitch count gets high.


While you make a good point, I respectfully disagree. His career totals from 106-120:

Code: Select all
IP    H   R  ER HR BB  K  ERA  WHIP  BAA
135.2 116 43 42 7  32 162 2.79 1.09 .228


Although this is over a career (and therefore goes over his peak years, which he arguably has passed) it still seems to indicate that he can handle effective teams. Now, powerhouses like the Yankees may be another story. But I'm just going with the evidence.


My point is I believe he struggles now. Prior to 2002 is irrelevant. No way Pedro is the same pitcher as he was in 2002 and before.


I agree. ;-D
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Postby Amazinz » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:58 pm

Lofunzo wrote:I got this off of Yahoo. Looks like the WHIP really suffers after a lot of pitches

Without looking at the numbers, I imagine you'd see this trend in all pitchers due to control issues as their arms tire.
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Postby Rico The Retard » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:59 pm

nice post DK, that was interesting
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:10 pm

Amazinz wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:I got this off of Yahoo. Looks like the WHIP really suffers after a lot of pitches

Without looking at the numbers, I imagine you'd see this trend in all pitchers due to control issues as their arms tire.


I'm sure that's the case for the most point but this thread was about disspelling the hype. :-?
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:11 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
DK wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:There is no doubt it has been blown out of proportion because of his poor 2003 numbers in that area.

I would say though that his pitch count from 106-120 in 2004 on that table is a very small sample size. I do believe he does struggle these days to be truly effective against decent offenses when his pitch count gets high.


While you make a good point, I respectfully disagree. His career totals from 106-120:

Code: Select all
IP    H   R  ER HR BB  K  ERA  WHIP  BAA
135.2 116 43 42 7  32 162 2.79 1.09 .228


Although this is over a career (and therefore goes over his peak years, which he arguably has passed) it still seems to indicate that he can handle effective teams. Now, powerhouses like the Yankees may be another story. But I'm just going with the evidence.


My point is I believe he struggles now. Prior to 2002 is irrelevant. No way Pedro is the same pitcher as he was in 2002 and before.


Agreed. He was horrible this year, it's by far the worst season he's had. He hasn't had an ERA above 2.40 since 1998. This year it jumped to 3.90 8-o

Also, just because his OPS against is the lowest after 90+ pitches, doens't mean he is better after 90+ pitches. Most of the games that he bombs in, he doesn't make it that far presumably. So his bad games affect mostly all pitches below 90, but after 90 he's usually been effective enough to stay in that long.

That's why you have to take stats like that with a grain of salt, and look at the cause of the effect, instead of the effect alone. For instance, players in the top third of the batting order probably have the best league aggregate OBAs. Players in the bottom third of the lineup probably have the wrost league aggregate OBAs. Does that mean batting in the bottom third of the order is conducive to a lower OBA? No, in fact I'd argue that the reverse is true in many cases. The reason for high OBAs at the top of the lineup is because that's where good hitters are put. It seems simple for an example like the one I gave, but it's the same cause and effect idea.

Basically what I'm saying is Pedro DOES get worse as the game wears on and he throws more pitches. Not for the reasons that Fox gave, because they pretty much skew stats to "prove" their beliefs. God, McCarver is horrible.....
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Postby raiders_umpire » Wed Oct 20, 2004 9:37 am

Lofunzo wrote:I got this off of Yahoo. Looks like the WHIP really suffers after a lot of pitches:

Code: Select all
             G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA   
Pitch 1-15   388 0 0 0 0 0 0 324.1 262 127 120 32 71 334 3.33 1.03 .222   
Pitch 16-30   375 0 0 0 0 0 0 340.0 242 131 116 30 104 432 3.07 1.02 .197   
Pitch 31-45   341 0 0 0 0 0 0 315.1 242 95 86 17 84 372 2.45 1.03 .211   
Pitch 46-60   323 0 0 0 0 0 0 306.1 224 89 82 20 91 344 2.41 1.03 .203   
Pitch 61-75   313 0 0 0 0 0 0 301.2 225 92 83 19 79 397 2.48 1.01 .205   
Pitch 76-90   305 0 0 0 0 0 0 292.1 227 103 86 26 70 275 2.65 1.02 .212   
Pitch 91-105   270 0 0 0 0 0 0 236.2 170 74 66 21 65 286 2.51 0.99 .198   
Pitch 106-20   195 0 0 0 0 0 0 135.2 116 43 42 7 32 162 2.79 1.09 .228   
Pitch 121-35   74 0 0 0 0 0 0 40.2 37 11 9 3 16 45 1.99 1.30 .237   
Pitch 136-50   8 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.0 1 1 1 0 3 6 3.00 1.33 .111




true his whip does suffer after about 121 pitches thrown, but if you also note that this only includes 43.2 innings pitched out of 2296.1 innings.....so even though the whip is higher the proportion of innings pitched is not there either....one innings after pitch 121 where he gave up 3 or 4 runs could definitely skew 43 innings pitched.......



LBJackal wrote:God, McCarver is horrible.....



please lets not even go there....especially with his comment last night of a walk being equal to a homerun........fox please get rid of him quickly........
Last edited by raiders_umpire on Wed Oct 20, 2004 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:14 am

raiders_umpire wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:God, McCarver is horrible.....



please lets not even go there....especially with his comment last night of a walk being equal to a homerun........fox please get rid of him quickly........


Actually, that was me who said it, not NZF. I'm sure we all feel the same way though. I loved that "walk is equal to a HR" comment. Because it's so easy to turn a double play after a guy hits a HR ;-7

Can you believe this guy played in the majors for 22 years? He started his career when he was 17 years old, no wonder he's so dumb. He didn't get to finish High School :-D
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Postby raiders_umpire » Wed Oct 20, 2004 11:50 am

oops my bad newzealand fan....i changed it.....
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:21 pm

When will you guys learn to turn down the TV and just listen to the radio? The delay really isn't that bad once you get used to it, I actually kinda like it. :-D
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