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Don't believe the hype... Pedro's not that bad after 100

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Don't believe the hype... Pedro's not that bad after 100

Postby DK » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:35 pm

I always thought that (from what I'd heard) after 100 pitches, Pedro's arm up and flies away like a balloon. Everyone else thinks that too, after all, the same thing happened Game 7 last year. So, Right?

Wrong.

As it turns out, Pedro is no worse from pitches 90-120 (Couldn't find 100+ stats, but it's good enough) than he is the rest of the game. In the 2004 season:

Code: Select all
Pitches AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
1-15    105 11 35 3  2 9  18   5 1   23 0 0 .333 .360 .657 1.017
16-30   116 19 17 4  1 2  7    8 3   45 2 0 .147 .220 .250 .470
31-45   108 12 28 7  1 1  12  10 5   33 6 0 .259 .344 .370 .714
46-60   115 16 29 4  1 3  16   9 2   26 3 2 .252 .313 .383 .695
61-75   120 15 29 8  1 4  10  10 2   32 4 2 .242 .308 .425 .733
76-90   116 12 28 7  2 4  10  10 1   31 3 0 .241 .305 .440 .744
91-105   91 12 17 3  0 2  12   7 2   26 0 0 .187 .248 .286 .533
106-120  41  2 10 1  0 1  5    2 0   11 1 1 .244 .279 .341 .621


He doesn't get worse; he gets better. His OPS for 90+ pitches is better than any other span, save 16-30.

2003 looks like it was a statistical anamoly for Pedro. In 2003, his 106-120 shot up to .370 average against, but in 2002 it was a mere .231. Also, from 90-105, the average against was a minscule .138, and the OPS was .471.

I am getting more and more convinced that the magic 100 number is not what it seems.

Pedro just got unlucky.
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Postby bleach168 » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:37 pm

Wow, nice find, DK.
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Postby Amazinz » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:38 pm

Interesting stuff. I always thought it was true too but I guess that's what you get for listening to the talking heads. :-)
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:44 pm

Fox had a stat about pre-100 and post-100 and the average and ERA were much worse.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:55 pm

Lofunzo wrote:Fox had a stat about pre-100 and post-100 and the average and ERA were much worse.


Yeah me too. But then I looked up the stats like DK did and saw that it -- like most of the stuff from the Fox talking heads -- is completely wrong, or misinterpreted. I'm sure that there is a point of diminishing return, but it doesn't appear to be right at 100 as some think. That's the funny thing about statistics, you can make them say anything you want, or think they say something completely different if you're not careful. :-°
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Postby DK » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:11 pm

Lofunzo wrote:Fox had a stat about pre-100 and post-100 and the average and ERA were much worse.


I saw that too. It said only for the postseason, and I'm not even sure if it was all postseason stats or just for 2004.

I'll go check it out.
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Postby kentx12 » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:13 pm

That is an intresting find. After all the talk I thought as stated above his arm just left after 100 pitches.
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Postby NZF » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:33 pm

There is no doubt it has been blown out of proportion because of his poor 2003 numbers in that area.

I would say though that his pitch count from 106-120 in 2004 on that table is a very small sample size. I do believe he does struggle these days to be truly effective against decent offenses when his pitch count gets high.
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Postby DK » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:41 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:There is no doubt it has been blown out of proportion because of his poor 2003 numbers in that area.

I would say though that his pitch count from 106-120 in 2004 on that table is a very small sample size. I do believe he does struggle these days to be truly effective against decent offenses when his pitch count gets high.


While you make a good point, I respectfully disagree. His career totals from 106-120:

Code: Select all
IP    H   R  ER HR BB  K  ERA  WHIP  BAA
135.2 116 43 42 7  32 162 2.79 1.09 .228


Although this is over a career (and therefore goes over his peak years, which he arguably has passed) it still seems to indicate that he can handle effective teams. Now, powerhouses like the Yankees may be another story. But I'm just going with the evidence.
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:44 pm

I got this off of Yahoo. Looks like the WHIP really suffers after a lot of pitches:

Code: Select all
             G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA   
Pitch 1-15   388 0 0 0 0 0 0 324.1 262 127 120 32 71 334 3.33 1.03 .222   
Pitch 16-30   375 0 0 0 0 0 0 340.0 242 131 116 30 104 432 3.07 1.02 .197   
Pitch 31-45   341 0 0 0 0 0 0 315.1 242 95 86 17 84 372 2.45 1.03 .211   
Pitch 46-60   323 0 0 0 0 0 0 306.1 224 89 82 20 91 344 2.41 1.03 .203   
Pitch 61-75   313 0 0 0 0 0 0 301.2 225 92 83 19 79 397 2.48 1.01 .205   
Pitch 76-90   305 0 0 0 0 0 0 292.1 227 103 86 26 70 275 2.65 1.02 .212   
Pitch 91-105   270 0 0 0 0 0 0 236.2 170 74 66 21 65 286 2.51 0.99 .198   
Pitch 106-20   195 0 0 0 0 0 0 135.2 116 43 42 7 32 162 2.79 1.09 .228   
Pitch 121-35   74 0 0 0 0 0 0 40.2 37 11 9 3 16 45 1.99 1.30 .237   
Pitch 136-50   8 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.0 1 1 1 0 3 6 3.00 1.33 .111
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