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Major League Equivalency

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Postby Mookie4ever » Mon Oct 18, 2004 5:53 pm

Statistically he may be right but there is so much more to it than mere numbers. This is the statement that I have a problem with:

Each successful steal adds about .3 runs to a team's total -- far less than in generally believed. SBR estimates the impact of base-stealers, which, other than the elite base-stealers, rarely amounts to more than a few runs per year.


You can't say that it only adds .3 runs to a team's total - that is an incredible leap in logic. What about:

-the pitcher's performance when he doesn't use the wind up.
-a successful steal keeping you out of a double play
-how the man at the plate hits knowing that he is more likely to get a fastball
-the fact that many CS are botched hit and runs - does that mean you should also count the successful hit and run as another SB because the man on first made it to third?

In short what I am saying is that station to station baseball is good for certain teams but teams with speed have an extra weapon that a manager can advantage of if he is a good tactician. Saying that a SB is merely .3 runs is the equivalent of saying that ERic Gagne only gets you 3 outs a game so he is not that valuable - that's not so because it does not take into account which three outs he gets for you.
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Postby wrveres » Mon Oct 18, 2004 6:02 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:This is what I've got for you:

http://www.bigbadbaseball.com/articles/ ... 00822.html

Bill James' aggregate translation factor (82% of AA or AAA stats) makes for an exact projection of the Major League Equivalency (MLE) for every hitter.


and

http://www.funet.fi/pub/sports/FAQ/baseball.faq.5

Major League Equivalency - The major league performance that is
equivalent to a given performance in the minor leagues. Bill James
discovered that by making appropriate adjustments for league and park,
you could figure an MLE for a player's minor league performance that
is as good for predicting future performance as prior major league
data.


So it looks like he takes AAA stats and multiplies by 82% then adjusts for the league and the park. It is much more complicated than that but :

http://www.stathead.com/bbeng/woolner/statglossary.htm

The method for MLE's has never been fully published, though James describes a precursor to the current approach in his 1985 Baseball Abstract.


he's a very secretive kind of guy.


thanks Mookie ... I thought it was somewhere around 80%. Its also my understanding that it didn't work so well with AA stats though.

As for Stolen Bases, I have run that exact formula before and didn't find it beneficial at all. Mostly because our game is more a "total" of stolen bases vs a percentage, and there are way to many variables, like you said.

when dealing with stolen bases, I find it easier to focus on the manager and the players batting order ...
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Postby Tavish » Mon Oct 18, 2004 6:31 pm

Weeee so much fun....


wreves wrote:this is what I keep coming across, and its driving me nuts. Does anybody ...

A) Know the formula or
B) Know some mathematical formula similar, so that I can look at a AAA players stats, and equate it to MLB. It would need to take into account park effects I guess, but I can deal with that later...


A) Its already been mentioned, but the actual MLE formula is a "secret" forumla much like the projection formulas used by the big sites. There is abit more information about Clay Davenport's EqA minor league translation out there though.
B) Park and league effects are probably the *biggest* factor to consider when looking at minor league stats. There is such a major difference from league to league that factoring in park and league effects is probably the most important (and difficult) part of the conversion.

LBJackal wrote:I don't think anybody other than James knows the formula. Maybe Tavish or HOOTIE... or maybe Tavish or HOOTIE is Bill James

HOOTIE can be James, I would much rather be Palmer. ;-D

stumpak wrote:I guess I am saying that SBs are almost always tactical--the decision-making on whether to steal or not can be marginally informed by aggregations (i.e., err on the conservative side of stealing according to James) but statistical aggregations in reality are never the fundamental driver of tactical decisions.
Why do teams IWalk Bonds with the game on the line? Why do teams IWalk the 8 hitter to get to the pitcher? How about the infield shift or left handed relief specialists? A great deal of baseball's tactical decisions are based almost completely on aggregate historical statistics.

Baseball's unwritten rules. wrote:#14 Don't go against the percentages.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Oct 23, 2004 2:22 pm

Baseball Prospectus provides major league translations for mino rleague players on their site.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... amin2.html

On James' formulae, of course they define what happens in the aggregate. Knowing that, and knowing what the averages are, you can know whether the strategy has a higher oe lower value in your particular situation. In fact, there's increasing data on situational stats that can be applied.

And, there's even research on the effects of things like the runner disturbing the pitcher (not a lot of evidence that runners cause problems; in fact, they appear to disturb the batter's concentration more than they disturb the pitcher).

So, it's just silly to suggest that James' work is crap. It summarizes the overall effect of the SB. And, it laid the foundation for even more sophisticated analyses which reveal many fo the things Mookie wants to know.
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