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The most lame piece of "conventional baseball wisdom"?

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Postby Lofunzo » Fri Oct 15, 2004 1:02 am

Just to further my point, the #1 guy in IP this season was Livan Hernandez. Taking the IP list from 20 years ago (1984), he would have ranked 9th. And while he pitched well this season, I bet that he would have pitched less innings if Montreal had anyone in the bullpen. 20 years earlier (1964), those same 255 IP would have ranked 13th. Also, Livan's league leading 9 CG this season would have tied him for 20th in 1984. In 1964, that wouldn't even have him sniffing the top 20. See a trend?? :-?
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Postby wrveres » Fri Oct 15, 2004 6:05 am

LCBOY wrote:Another pet peeve:


There will ENVER be another 300 game winner.



How about 15 plus wins in 17 straight seasons ... ??
I can't see that being broken for a long time. Heck he is actually set up very nicely, to make it 18 in a row.

As for a 300 game winner, sure it will happen again. I think because of the nature of today’s game, is why we will see it too. With rising free agent costs and expansion, many teams are forced to bring up players earlier and earlier. Add in state of the art medical and training staffs, and there is no reason why today’s players, especially the ones with enough talent to threaten 300 wins, won't be able to have longer careers making 300 attainable
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Postby ukrneal » Fri Oct 15, 2004 9:19 am

AS long as there is a 5-man rotation, which Clemens and Maddux have mostly been a part of, then I don't see why there won't be more 300 game winners in the future.

Right now, Pedro, Glavine, and RJ (to name a few) have a shot at it, depending on their future success. After them, it's really a crapshoot. Mike Mussina would have to maintian his average win total of 17 for the next five years to have a shot. The A's Zito, Hudson, and Mulder could do it since they started young enough, but it's way too early to know. If Santana (and Prior, Peavy, etc...) continue to do what they did either in 2003 or 2004, they COULD have a shot.

It's always been difficult - for example, it requires 20 seasons of 15 wins or 15 seasons of 20 wins. These are difficult to achieve even if you have 60 starts a year, simply because it requires you to be good (and consitent) for so long. Look at RJ and his last 5-10 years. Some would argue that in there are some of the best years ever. Yet, it's doubtful that he will reach 300 wins. It's really an amazing feat.
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Postby LCBOY » Fri Oct 15, 2004 10:18 am

Lofunzo wrote:Well, depending on where you look, a form of free agency either started in 1931 or after the 1969 season (Flood). It would seem quite obvious that there would be less player movement without free agency. Do you really think that I wouldn't be able to find a list of players from an older generation to match your current list??


I guess we'd need to study rosters from say 1950 and today and see how many teams a player has played for. However this isn't really my point. The question is whether players today are more or less "loyal" to their teams. Just becasue because Joe Blow superstar from 1950 played 20 years with one team, does that make him loyal? I say no becasue he had no choice. There was no free agency. Only when a player has a choice can he express his loyalty to his team by staying. Just in the past few years players like Cal Rpiken and Tony Gwynn retired playing for one team. Plus the guys I listed above
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Postby LCBOY » Fri Oct 15, 2004 10:39 am

Lofunzo wrote:Just to further my point, the #1 guy in IP this season was Livan Hernandez. Taking the IP list from 20 years ago (1984), he would have ranked 9th. And while he pitched well this season, I bet that he would have pitched less innings if Montreal had anyone in the bullpen. 20 years earlier (1964), those same 255 IP would have ranked 13th. Also, Livan's league leading 9 CG this season would have tied him for 20th in 1984. In 1964, that wouldn't even have him sniffing the top 20. See a trend?? :-?


Yes starters in general are pitching less innings but what does this mean? In a previous post I compared the Cy Young Winners of the 1970s vs all the post 1990 Cy Young winners.

This is what I wrote before:
OK, so I checked it out. I checked out all the CY Young winners from the 1970s and compared them with all the Cy Young winners from 1990-2003. I've excluded relievers who won the award.


1970 Bob Gibson (23-7), Jim Perry (24-12)
1971 F. Jenkins (24-13), V. Blue (24-8)
1972 S. Carlton (27-10), G Perry (24-16)
1973 T. Seaver (19-10), Jim Palmer (22-9)
1974 Catfish Hunter (25-12)
1975 T. Seaver (22-9), Jim Palmer (23-11)
1976 Randy Jones (22-14), J. Palmer (22-13)
1977 S. Carlton (23-10)
1978 G. Perry (21-6), Ron Guidry (25-3)
1979 Mike Flanagan (23-9)
1980 Carlton (24-9), S. Stone (25-7)

Now, since 1990...

1990 D. Drabek (22-7), Welch (27-6)
1991 Glavine (20-11), Clemens (18-10)
1992 Maddux (20-11)
1993 Maddux (20-10), McDowell (22-10)
1994 Maddux (16-6), Cone (16-5)
1995 Maddux (19-2), R. Johnson (18-2)
1996 Smoltz (24-8), Hentgen (20-10)
1997 Martinez (17-8), Clemens (21-7)
1998 Glavine (20-6), Clenens (20-6)
1999 Johnson (17-9), Martinez (23-4)
2000 Johnson (19-7), Martinez (18-6)
2001 Johnson (21-6), Clemens (20-3)
2002 Johnson (24-5), Zito (23-5)
2003 Halladay (22-7)

The 1970s guys averaged a 23-10 record while the post 1990s guys averaged a 20-7 record. There are some circumstances that lowers the 1990s winners. The strike shortened season of 1994 ended on Agust 12th. It is highly likely that both Maddux and Cone would have easily won over 20 games. The 1995 season was also short, only 144 games long. Again Maddux and Johnson would have cleared 20 wins. So the 1990s guys stack up well. Another "circumstance" is Pedro Martinez. He was so dominant that he beat 20-game winners for the Cy Young. In 2000 he beat out two 20-game winners for the award. In 1997, he beat out a 20-game winner and THREE 19-game winners for the award.

What's interersting is that the people who believe that 300 game winners will disappear use the following "arguments"

1) The 5-man rotation gives pitchers fewer starts and thus less chance of wins.

The 5-man rotation has been used since the early 1970s. Both Clemens and Maddux have pitched their entire careers in the 5-man rotation and still managed to win 300 games. It's seems strange that one would use this argument given that Clemens and Maddux have already reached 300 wins.

2) Pitchers today don't pitch late into games as before. Take a look at the Cy Young winners from the 1970s. What do you notice? They have more losses than the 1990s winners. No 1990s winner had more that 11 losses. Seven of the 1970s winners exceeded that total. So today managers are less likely to stick with their starter if they are behind. But why would a manager pull his starter early if he is ahead? Again this argument doesn't hold water when looking at the facts.

Winning 300 games has always been difficult. It will continue to be so, but unless there is a DRASTIC change in the game I don't see how one can conclude that there will never another 300 game winner.



Of course this is just a theory of mine. I would have to study the issue more indepth to see if it is true. :-D
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Postby Lofunzo » Fri Oct 15, 2004 12:28 pm

LCBOY wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:Well, depending on where you look, a form of free agency either started in 1931 or after the 1969 season (Flood). It would seem quite obvious that there would be less player movement without free agency. Do you really think that I wouldn't be able to find a list of players from an older generation to match your current list??


I guess we'd need to study rosters from say 1950 and today and see how many teams a player has played for. However this isn't really my point. The question is whether players today are more or less "loyal" to their teams. Just becasue because Joe Blow superstar from 1950 played 20 years with one team, does that make him loyal? I say no becasue he had no choice. There was no free agency. Only when a player has a choice can he express his loyalty to his team by staying. Just in the past few years players like Cal Rpiken and Tony Gwynn retired playing for one team. Plus the guys I listed above


That's a fair point. You can't always just assume that they were loyal. That said, you also can't just assume that they weren't. :-?
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Postby Amazinz » Fri Oct 15, 2004 12:45 pm

Just a correction concerning 5-man rotations. They weren't really in use since the start of the 70s. I think the Dodgers and another team I can't remember started using them. But it wasn't until the late 70s that they were common. I believe in 1980 the Baltimore Orioles were still using a 4-man rotation. Even in the early 80s you would see teams switch to 4-man rotations due to injury whereas nowadays they'd rather bring up some unprepared kid out of the minors.
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Postby LCBOY » Fri Oct 15, 2004 2:08 pm

Lofunzo wrote:
LCBOY wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:Well, depending on where you look, a form of free agency either started in 1931 or after the 1969 season (Flood). It would seem quite obvious that there would be less player movement without free agency. Do you really think that I wouldn't be able to find a list of players from an older generation to match your current list??


I guess we'd need to study rosters from say 1950 and today and see how many teams a player has played for. However this isn't really my point. The question is whether players today are more or less "loyal" to their teams. Just because Joe Blow superstar from 1950 played 20 years with one team, does that make him loyal? I say no becasue he had no choice. There was no free agency. Only when a player has a choice can he express his loyalty to his team by staying. Just in the past few years players like Cal Rpiken and Tony Gwynn retired playing for one team. Plus the guys I listed above


That's a fair point. You can't always just assume that they were loyal. That said, you also can't just assume that they weren't. :-?


Very true. Since we don't know about the loyalty of the players from the past then we cannot state for certain that today's players are less "loyal".
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Postby Melo255 » Fri Oct 15, 2004 4:13 pm

Not to get back to the original subject or anything but Tim Wakefield just finished his 10th regular season with the Red Sox.
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Postby LCBOY » Fri Oct 15, 2004 4:23 pm

Melo255 wrote:Not to get back to the original subject or anything but Tim Wakefield just finished his 10th regular season with the Red Sox.


Didn't Wakefield begin his major league career with the Pirates?
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