MLB PLayoff Pick'em for league title - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

MLB PLayoff Pick'em for league title

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

MLB PLayoff Pick'em for league title

Postby baseball7freak8 » Sun Oct 03, 2004 10:42 pm

hey everyone, I am in a league that has both an AL and NL. So to determine the winner between the leagues we have a Playoff Pick'em format. My team is in the AL so I have the option of the first pick or choosing to have the NL representative make the first pick. The draft style is snake, so if he picks first I get the next 2 and so on until all 8 teams are gone.

The 8 playoff teams are of course

Yankees
Twins
Angles
Red Sox
Astros
Cardinals
Braves
Dodgers

I am leaning towards opting to have the 2nd pick and take either the Yankees, Red Sox, or Cards back to back. I feel there are 3 top teams in this thing and I'll get 2 out of 3 of them.

Here is the scoring break down to determine the winner of the whole league. I get these points based on the 4 teams I pick.


Division Series

Lost-N-3 0 points
Lost-N-4 1 point
Lost-N-5 2 points
Lost-N-6 n/a
Lost N-7 n/a
Won-N-7 n/a
Won-N-6 n/a
Won-N-5 4 points
Won-N-4 5 points
Won-N-3 6 points

Championship Series

Lost-N-3 n/a
Lost-N-4 0 points
Lost-N-5 3 points
Lost-N-6 6 points
Lost N-7 9 points
Won-N-7 13 points
Won-N-6 16 points
Won-N-5 19 points
Won-N-4 22 points
Won-N-3 n/a

World Series

Lost-N-3 n/a
Lost-N-4 0 points
Lost-N-5 8 points
Lost-N-6 16 points
Lost N-7 24 points
Won-N-7 40 points
Won-N-6 48 points
Won-N-5 56 points
Won-N-4 64 points
Won-N-3 0 points

Now, don't you think it would be advantageous to have 2 teams from the AL and 2 from the NL so that it would be more likely that I have BOTH the teams in the world series which would pretty much cripple my opponent?

This is very very complicated and I am not an expert at math. Can anyone tell me what they would do here?
Save Ferris
baseball7freak8
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor

User avatar

Posts: 27
Joined: 28 Oct 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Tavish » Sun Oct 03, 2004 11:41 pm

Now, don't you think it would be advantageous to have 2 teams from the AL and 2 from the NL so that it would be more likely that I have BOTH the teams in the world series which would pretty much cripple my opponent?

This is very very complicated and I am not an expert at math. Can anyone tell me what they would do here?


If it is a H2H matchup then there is ZERO mathematical advantage you can gain. Your opponent will have exactly the same split. Just go for the teams you think will win the Series and don't worry about any of the other scoring.
Image

Bury me a Royal.
Tavish
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterWeb Supporter
Posts: 11068
(Past Year: 26)
Joined: 3 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby LBJackal » Mon Oct 04, 2004 12:17 am

Well, I think there is a mathematical advantage...... overall they'll both have the same amount of AL/NL teams, but if his first 2 picks (2 and 3 overall) are in different leagues he'll have a better chance of having 2 teams go all the way. But I don't think there are clear winners anyway. I can see anybody but Anaheim, LA, or Atlanta going to the WS.

Anyway, here are my favourites to win the WS:

1. Houston
2. Boston
3. St. Louis
4. Minnesota
5. NYY
6. Atlanta
7. Anaheim
8. LA

Also, if you pick NYY does he automatically get the Twins? Or can you pick both teams from the same series? If it's the latter, I'd use the first pick so I only end up with one of ATL, ANA, or LA.
Image

"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"

"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
LBJackal
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 9196
Joined: 1 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Hotel Yorba

Postby Tavish » Mon Oct 04, 2004 12:39 am

LBJackal wrote:Well, I think there is a mathematical advantage...... overall they'll both have the same amount of AL/NL teams, but if his first 2 picks (2 and 3 overall) are in different leagues he'll have a better chance of having 2 teams go all the way.


There is no mathematical difference either way. The only mathematical influence you can have is to effect the probability that either player picks the World Series winner. And every pick you make changes the odds the exactly the same for both players. Other than that its completely based on opinion/skill/luck/whatever you want to call it.
Image

Bury me a Royal.
Tavish
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterWeb Supporter
Posts: 11068
(Past Year: 26)
Joined: 3 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby LBJackal » Mon Oct 04, 2004 2:23 am

Yes but making your top 2 picks in different divisions spreads out your talent. Would you rather have the chance of 2 teams going to the WS or a max of 1 team? If NYY and MIN were the two favourites... that wouldn't mean you should take them both. Because you're guaranteed to lose one of them. Sure you're guaranteed one advancing, but that's all you're guaranteed.

Say NYY and MIN both have a probability of 0.50 to win the AL (the winner of that ALDS is guaranteed to win the ALCS basically). StL has a probability of 0.45 to win the NL, and Houston also has a probability of 0.45 to win the NL. Given 2 picks, going by odds, you'd take NYY and MIN. You're guaranteed to win the AL and enter the WS. Taking StL and HOU you have a 90% chance of going to the WS, but you also probably have 2 NLDS to get points from, instead of one in the AL. If the points were distributed such that all series were worth the same, wouldn't you take the 90% chance of having the bundle StL/HOU then the 100% chance of having the bundle NYY/MIN? And of course I'm assuming that all teams are picked, and it isn't one guy picks NYY, the other guy automatically gets MIN.

But still, if it was that way and NYY had a probability of 0.40 of winning the WS, BOS had a probability of 0.35 of winning the WS, and StL had a probability of 0.25 of winning the WS, would you take NYY/BOS or NYY/StL? You know it's gonna be one of those 3 teams, but if you take NYY/BOS you're guaranteed only one team in the WS. If you take NYY/StL you're guaranteed 1 team with a .53 (.40 / .75) chance of having 2 teams. Maybe I'm doing something wrong (I havn't taken Finite in 2 years :*) ) But to me, I can see a situation where it isn't the best decision to take the two favourite teams if they're in the same league. But like I said.... I could be doing something wrong. Maybe I should be calculating who has the best odds of GETTING to the WS :-? In that case it's NYY with 0.40 and StL with 1.00. But you were referring to their being no mathematical advantage when looking at odds of who will be the WS winner. In which case I think I'm right...... definately maybe.
Image

"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"

"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
LBJackal
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 9196
Joined: 1 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Hotel Yorba

Postby BigBlue » Mon Oct 04, 2004 2:32 am

Here's my choices:

Houston(I dont see anyone playing like them or pitching like them right now)
Boston
St. Louis
Aneheim
Minnesota
Atlanta
New York
LA
BigBlue
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2151
(Past Year: 17)
Joined: 31 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Look behind you!

Postby Tavish » Mon Oct 04, 2004 8:33 am

LBJ,
The problem is that all the teams have the same probability of making the World Series. Any changes you make to those odds are simply based on opinion and isn't a mathematical edge you are gaining.
Image

Bury me a Royal.
Tavish
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterWeb Supporter
Posts: 11068
(Past Year: 26)
Joined: 3 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby LBJackal » Mon Oct 04, 2004 2:11 pm

They don't all have the same odds realistically, which is what he's basing his picks on. Would you say Boston and LA have the same odds of winning the WS? How about StL and Anaheim? Would you bet more on Boston/StL than on LA/ANA with the same odds? No, that would be stupid. My point is the odds are different. Sure the possibilities are still there and it wouldn't be as clear cut as only 3 teams having a chance, but that's an example to show it is beneficial in some cases to consider the league/division the teams are in. The example I gave is extreme but there must be a threshold at some point where it becomes beneficial to take a team with worse odds of winning it all if they are in a different division.

The problem is you have to come up with the odds somehow. I won't do it because I have no idea how, but I'm sure people in Las Vegas have odds that are different than 50/50 for all teams advancing to the next round.
Image

"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"

"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
LBJackal
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 9196
Joined: 1 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Hotel Yorba

Postby Tavish » Mon Oct 04, 2004 4:27 pm

The problem is you have to come up with the odds somehow. I won't do it because I have no idea how, but I'm sure people in Las Vegas have odds that are different than 50/50 for all teams advancing to the next round.


Odds are highly influenced by public opinion. They for sure are quite different than 50/50, but that doesn't change the chance each team has to win. You could pick all four favorites and you would still have the exact same chances (mathematically) to pick the World Series winner as the guy who had all four underdogs.

I'll go back to what I said in my first post. There is no reason to pick a team to try and get a mathematical advantage, because there is no way to do so in this type of setup. Just pick the teams you think have the best shot at winning. If you think the favorites are going to win, pick the favorites. If you think the underdogs will win, pick them.
Image

Bury me a Royal.
Tavish
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterWeb Supporter
Posts: 11068
(Past Year: 26)
Joined: 3 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby baseball7freak8 » Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:28 pm

thanks you guys, you have given my some insight into this whole thing. (although now it seems more complicated ;-)

I'll fill you in on who the draft works.
Save Ferris
baseball7freak8
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor

User avatar

Posts: 27
Joined: 28 Oct 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: scarnicease and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Monday, Sep. 1
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Philadelphia at Atlanta
(1:10 pm)
NY Mets at Miami
(1:10 pm)
indoors
Boston at Tampa Bay
(1:10 pm)
indoors
Minnesota at Baltimore
(1:35 pm)
Pittsburgh at St. Louis
(2:15 pm)
Milwaukee at Chi Cubs
(2:20 pm)
Seattle at Oakland
(4:05 pm)
Detroit at Cleveland
(4:05 pm)
San Francisco at Colorado
(4:10 pm)
Arizona at San Diego
(4:10 pm)
Texas at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Washington at LA Dodgers
(8:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact