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Official Ichiro countdown to Sisler's record.

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Postby LBJackal » Mon Sep 27, 2004 1:51 am

Well how do you know it hasn't won a championship yet? Virtually all team's are using their own version of Moneyball nowadays. Guys that Moneyball values highly because they come cheaply (Hatteberg, Bellhorn, etc) no longer come cheaply, because the true value of a hitter is more or less common knowledge now, mostly due to Moneyball. If you mean that the A's have to win a championship, that isn't likely to happen. Not because it's a bad method of winning, but because there are 29 other teams, and the odds are very much against them. If you mean a team that uses every aspect of Moneyball has to win before you're convinced, I don't know that the odds are any better for that happeneing, because it's pretty much just the A' and the cursed Red Sox - and the reason the Red Sox won't win has nothing to do with Moneyball :-D
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Postby Lofunzo » Mon Sep 27, 2004 1:57 am

LBJackal wrote:Well how do you know it hasn't won a championship yet? Virtually all team's are using their own version of Moneyball nowadays. Guys that Moneyball values highly because they come cheaply (Hatteberg, Bellhorn, etc) no longer come cheaply, because the true value of a hitter is more or less common knowledge now, mostly due to Moneyball. If you mean that the A's have to win a championship, that isn't likely to happen. Not because it's a bad method of winning, but because there are 29 other teams, and the odds are very much against them. If you mean a team that uses every aspect of Moneyball has to win before you're convinced, I don't know that the odds are any better for that happeneing, because it's pretty much just the A' and the cursed Red Sox - and the reason the Red Sox won't win has nothing to do with Moneyball :-D


Some might use a slight variation but I am talking about the guys who worship James, use sabermetrics at every opportunity, and have a puppet in the dugout.
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Postby pbeall100281 » Mon Sep 27, 2004 2:05 am

If he gets it I think his record should certainly carry an asterisk with the games played difference.
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Postby Madison » Mon Sep 27, 2004 2:13 am

LBJackal wrote:If you mean that the A's have to win a championship, that isn't likely to happen. Not because it's a bad method of winning, but because there are 29 other teams, and the odds are very much against them.


It's not the other 29 teams that is a problem. It's the fact that the A's Moneyball bats do not contribute enough runs. The A's are 9th out of the 15 AL teams in runs scored. That's the bottom half. The only reason the A's have a shot each year is their starting pitching. Once Hudson, Mulder, Zito, etc, move on, the A's will be in a world of hurt.

Think about that......in the bottom half of the league in runs scored, yet they are still in the race. It has nothing to do with Moneyball and everything to do with starting pitching. Even their bullpen has stunk it up this year.

I give credit where credit is due, the A's starting pitching is doing the job and winning games. The bullpen has not done their job (lead the AL in blown saves), and the offense is pathetic. Moneyball offense did not work this year.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Sep 27, 2004 2:57 am

Seems to work for Boston :-?

But of course, they have popular hitters so that doesn't count. It has to be a horrible offense that leads the majors in runs scored before it's a successful strategy ;-7

The fact is, the A's have enough hitting to be competitive. I'm sure if their pitching was worse they'd acquire more hitters, so that they could stay competitive. The idea is to be competitive as best as possible within your budget. Honestly, who do they have other than Chavez, who missed significant time? Nobody. And they're still successful (leading the division - which includes all your Texas sluggers, and Vlad, GA, and formerly Guillen in Anaheim).
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Postby Madison » Mon Sep 27, 2004 4:11 am

Jackal, what you are missing is that all they preach is Moneyball. Get on base, don't make outs, draw walks, don't steal, OBP is the way to win, we don't need a closer, yadda, yadda, yadda. If that is the way to play baseball, then why don't they have more runs scored? I mean they are in the bottom half of the league for crying out loud. Even the Tigers have outscored them. Where's the production? I'd put my 6 year old on the mound against them. It's really that pathetic of a lineup.

Their success has absolutely nothing to do with Moneyball. It's all starting pitching and I credit them for that. They have done a great job on the pitching side and even Harden looks like he's going to work out well too. ;-D

As to bringing Boston into the equation, they have the second highest payroll in the majors. I would expect results for paying that many high profile players. That's not exactly the Moneyball way of thinking.
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Postby Lofunzo » Mon Sep 27, 2004 8:15 am

LBJackal wrote:Seems to work for Boston :-?

But of course, they have popular hitters so that doesn't count. It has to be a horrible offense that leads the majors in runs scored before it's a successful strategy ;-7

The fact is, the A's have enough hitting to be competitive. I'm sure if their pitching was worse they'd acquire more hitters, so that they could stay competitive. The idea is to be competitive as best as possible within your budget. Honestly, who do they have other than Chavez, who missed significant time? Nobody. And they're still successful (leading the division - which includes all your Texas sluggers, and Vlad, GA, and formerly Guillen in Anaheim).


You cannot consider Boston a complete Moneyball team because of how they put their team together. They are also able to go out and sign FA's basically at will. Because of $$, they can take chances that the A's can't.

I repeat that I don't think that it's a complete failure. I just fail to see how there are some people who read a passage from that book before they go to sleep. ;-7 People always say that it is successful but I would love to know how A's fans feel knowing that every year, their best season is probably going to be a 1st round playoff exit. After a while, you need to tweak the system if it ain't letting you take the next step. :-?
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Postby Dr.DooM » Mon Sep 27, 2004 2:14 pm

Countdowns didn't seem to jinx McGuire or Bonds but we'll see what happens to Ichiro. It should be close. I won't be surprised if pitchers start to walk him to avoid being associated with his record.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Sep 27, 2004 4:46 pm

Madison wrote:Jackal, what you are missing is that all they preach is Moneyball. Get on base, don't make outs, draw walks, don't steal, OBP is the way to win, we don't need a closer, yadda, yadda, yadda. If that is the way to play baseball, then why don't they have more runs scored? I mean they are in the bottom half of the league for crying out loud. Even the Tigers have outscored them. Where's the production? I'd put my 6 year old on the mound against them. It's really that pathetic of a lineup.

Their success has absolutely nothing to do with Moneyball. It's all starting pitching and I credit them for that. They have done a great job on the pitching side and even Harden looks like he's going to work out well too. ;-D

As to bringing Boston into the equation, they have the second highest payroll in the majors. I would expect results for paying that many high profile players. That's not exactly the Moneyball way of thinking.


Boston DOES use the Moneyball way of thinking. It wasn't in the book, but statistical ananlysis of defense is also a big thing that Oakland/Boston do. Who are Boston's recent acquisitions? Ortiz, Cabrera, Minky, Bellhorn, Millar. These are all players who fir into the "Defense and OBA are under-rated" category. They got them cheaper than they should have come because the way the contribute was under-rated - that's Moneyball. With Boston, they spend a lot of money, but they are in a market that allows for that. Still Moneyball, just on a larger scale.

As for Oakland, they bought the offense that they require to win games; Hatteberg, Kotsay, Kielty, drafted Swisher. Why overpay for an even better offense when they can win the division with the offense they currently have? I think it's agreed that the 2 big Moneyball teams are Boston and Oakland - both are currently in the playoffs if the season ended today - but still people say Moneyball doesn't work. I think that says that they've been doing something right, and if spensing next to nothing on offense because you have good enough pitching is it, then it's still working.
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Postby Madison » Mon Sep 27, 2004 4:57 pm

LBJackal wrote:As for Oakland, they bought the offense that they require to win games; Hatteberg, Kotsay, Kielty, drafted Swisher. Why overpay for an even better offense when they can win the division with the offense they currently have? I think it's agreed that the 2 big Moneyball teams are Boston and Oakland - both are currently in the playoffs if the season ended today - but still people say Moneyball doesn't work. I think that says that they've been doing something right, and if spensing next to nothing on offense because you have good enough pitching is it, then it's still working.


Only one game up on the Angels and two games up on the Rangers coming down the strectch. With any resonable hitting team, the A's are out in front by a significant margin instead of making the division a nail biter and possibly missing the playoffs entirely. Maybe that's what it's going to take to get them to wake up and actually sign a bat. Then again, once the big 3 move on, it won't matter anyway.

On another note, I'm actually surprised that Melhuse didn't get thrown off the team for what he did last Thursday against the Rangers. 3 balls, zero strikes, and he hits a home run 8-o ? I would think at least a fine or something would be expected for that disregard for the Moneyball philosophy by him actually hitting the ball instead of working a walk. ;-7

Lol. :-b
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