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A-Rod regressing ???

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A-Rod regressing ???

Postby thetongueofire » Fri Sep 24, 2004 2:03 pm

ops since 2000

00- 1.026
01- 1.021
02- 1.015
03- 0.996
04- 0.902*

*Yankees have six more games left.

this year hes on pace for

- 37 HR's, lowest since 97, his second full season in the majors.
- 63 XBH's, the lowest of any full season in his career.
- 133 SO's, career high.
- .292 BA, lowest since 99. second straight year he'll fail to hit .300
- both slug and ops 50 points below career 162-game average.

i'm thinkin that next year, he wont steal as many as this year. and Yankee stadium will continue to limit his HR total. that combined with the loss of SS eligibility (even though hes still the best SS in the majors) and single sligibility at 3B, a very deep position , kinda pulls his fantasy value down for next year.

or will he rebound real strong ?
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Postby Madison » Fri Sep 24, 2004 2:28 pm

The home run total was expected to be down a tad. From The Ballpark to Yankee stadium is a bit of a difference. ;-)

Whole different world in New York and Arlington. Lifestyles, fans, expectations, etc, were all different this year. Call it a transition year and expect a better year next season. B-)
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Postby LCBOY » Fri Sep 24, 2004 2:48 pm

It's quite possible that we've seen the best of A-Rod already. Eddie Mathews is a classic example. He had monster seasons in his early 20s. He did have many HoF seasons later in his career but never quite at he same level as his early 20s. A-Rod will be 30 years old next season. Most players have their best seasons before age 30...
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Postby pokerplaya » Fri Sep 24, 2004 3:04 pm

I selected him with first overall pick in my dynasty keeper league this year. Hopefully it wasn't an ill advised pick as I was going back and forth between Pujols and A-Rod...due to his SS eligibility this year I felt that he was still the right 1st pick.

I haven't been that dissapointed as his SB's have helped me win many a matchup...however...

My question is, trade him now while his value is at it's relative peak, or hold onto him and enjoy many HOF season from here on out...
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Expect a return to form

Postby nettles3Ball-star » Fri Sep 24, 2004 3:10 pm

As a die-hard Pinstripers fan I can understand the cause for concern. We were thinking we got what Sheff has turned out to be.

But, I think you've gotta look at how A-Rod is finishing out the season. Yeah, still chasing sliders out of the zone for strike 3 ala Soriano, but also starting to hit better with runners on. And coming through with clutch hits now.

My guess is he'll be back in the MVP balloting next year.
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Postby Bud Light » Fri Sep 24, 2004 3:45 pm

Didn't Giambi have a poor first season with the Yanks and then come back to have a good 2nd year? I expect Arod to do the same, but also I would take Pujols over Arod for the #1 pick next year now that he will lose his SS eligibility.
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Postby josebach » Fri Sep 24, 2004 4:26 pm

Bud Light wrote:Didn't Giambi have a poor first season with the Yanks and then come back to have a good 2nd year? I expect Arod to do the same, but also I would take Pujols over Arod for the #1 pick next year now that he will lose his SS eligibility.


Actually, no. He had a very good first year with the Yankees. His second year (last year) is where he started dropping off. His first year as a Yankee he really slumped the first month of the season, though. That's probably what you're thinking of.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:06 pm

I don't think this year should really be considered since he's in a new city, new team, new expectations and the like. I know that OPS doesn't tell the whole story, but it's hard to argue with those numbers there. I'm not going to say he's peaked yet, but I don't know if the HR's will be there like in the past. He should get more RBI's and runs since a better team is around him of course. I'll be very interested to see how he performs in the next few years though. :-?
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Postby hybrid » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:49 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:He should get more RBI's and runs since a better team is around him of course.


Well he is on a better team overall, but the Rangers offense compared to the Yanks isn't that far off at all. So I doubt he will have any big type of added RBI's or runs cause he is a Yank now.
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