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This season's greatest individual achievement

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Postby pgbridge2000 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:26 pm

^ Kind of Off topic???? ^

My fun with numbers!!!

Anyway in my opinion, Bonds' feat isn't incredible because if he is getting walked so much to take his bat out of the game, then he has to figure out a way to help his team win anyway, perhaps a sparkling catch in the outfield or start stealing some more bases so that instead of snow up with bonds on first he has him on second (in which a single can score him or a pair of groundouts.

The true measure of an MVP is who helps his team win right (ala. Arod missing it so often) so if Bonds isn't helping his team win more than say Pujols, who has about the same HR, more hits, more Rbi, more Runs Scored. Than he isn't the MVP right? Simple logic.

Bonds manufactured so far: 100 rbi+123 runs-44 HR(rbi included in the runs scored)=179 runs manufactured
Tejada= 138 rbi+102 runs-31 HR= 209
V. Castillo = 128 Rbi + 90 runs - 33 HR = 185
Guerrero = 115 Rbi + 114 runs - 33 HR = 198 runs Manufactured

As you can see (from just 3 players I chose who had good numbers this year Bonds doesn't actually help his team as much as others, (and you'll say that that's because he doesn't get the Rbi but...)

Beltran comes in 1 ahead thanks to 40 steals making scoring him easier,
Pujols comes in 18 ahead
Abreu 6 ahead thanks to 39 steals which helped him score


Still not convinced?
Bonds had 58 singles, 27 2b and 44 HR, 7 steals
Beltran has 78 singles, 35 2b and 38 HR, 40 steals
so that means bonds had the equivalent of 34 2bs and he would have 49 2bs if he had as many at bats as Beltran
Beltran had the equivalent of 75 2bs....
Now SF had a RISP average of: .272 including Bonds "superior hitting"
The Astros (which i'll use because their better) had a RISP average of .271, pretty equal right
that means even if Bonds was on the astros, and beltran was on the giants Beltran would still score more runs simply because he's in scoring position more.

I'm not saying that Beltran doesn't have some advantage but Beltran beats bonds' manufactured runs stats even if you try to equalize their stats based on the teams their on.

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Postby pgbridge2000 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:27 pm

wow looks like my post is a little out of date seeing as about 12 posts have been made since i started getting all the data for my post
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Postby LBJackal » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:43 pm

Well most of your data isn't relevant either. RBI and R are team dependant stats. Bonds makes far less outs than anybody else in baseball, which is a very big part of helping your team win and can't be measured by looking at R and RBI. Beltran certainly helps his team with the SB's, but he's only been in the NL for part of the season, and even then, his OBA is only .371 - which is pretty good, but Bonds' OBA is .611! He set the All-Time record for OBA and is near the best ever in SLG. Since OPS is considered one of the best simple measures of a hitter, Bonds is obviously head, shoulders, waist, and knees above everybody else in OPS. He could have stopped playing in August and won the MVP.
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Postby pgbridge2000 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:47 pm

if you read the bottom you'd realize my point is that even if you switched their teams, Beltran (just a player chosen exempla gratia) would still be producing more runs for his team.
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Postby LBJackal » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:49 pm

Yeah Beltran himself might have the same amount of RBI/R. But he is nowhere enar as valuable as Bonds. Not even close. RBI and R are terrible measures to judge players by, especially when they're on different teams in different parks.
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Postby Tavish » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:47 pm

pgbridge2000 wrote:if you read the bottom you'd realize my point is that even if you switched their teams, Beltran (just a player chosen exempla gratia) would still be producing more runs for his team.


As LBJ has already stated, using RBI/R outside of the context of Outs is an extremely misleading metric on runs produced.
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Postby thetongueofire » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:34 pm

i agree with jackal and tavish. production in context of the number of outs made is one of the best ways to judge a hitter. ;-D
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