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a word to moneyball purists about Beltran

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Postby LBJackal » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:47 pm

Carlos is a switch hitter so he usually bats lefthanded. MM Park is a great HR park because righties have that short porch. I don't think it helps him as much as most people. I don't have the home/road splits after the trade, but for the year he's been MUCH better on the roada than at home. His OPS is 300 points higher, he has 23 HR on the road (15 at home), and he also has stolen way more bases on the road (he's on base much less often, so it affects SB's too). I don't think Yankee Stadium will make it any worse (assuming he goes to the Yanks). I also think that he'd have the green light a LOT more often with Torre as his manager. Look at A-Rod this year, he has the green light all the time. Imagine if they had the best base-stealer of all time? Beltran might actually get the 60 SB's I thought he would this year :-D As for HR's..... KC was terrible (worst HR park in the majors) and Houston is about on par with Yankee Stadium for HR's. Seeing as though Houston benefits righties and NY benefits lefties, I think his HR totals will go up if he plays for the Yanks. 50/50? Maybe. #1 fantasy player? No doubt in my mind ;-D
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Postby godallahstar » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:47 pm

rlee wrote:Bef ore I say anything else, I think Beltran may be the #1 Fantasy player this year. I had him for about 2/3 of the season and traded him and Vidro for Helton and Loretta. But anyway ...

Assuming he does sign with the Yankees, a few questions to ponder:
1. His batting average is about 25 points lower than normal. What affect will Yankee Stadium have on that?

2. Same question with HRs (look at A-Rod's decrease this year) because he's going from Minute Maid, a hitter's park to the cavernous Home That Ruth Built.

3. What will playing for the Yankees do for his steals? With Torre managing, that probably not be affected. But it is something to think about.

Just food for thought for you deep thinkers :-D


Yeah, Plus the fact that since yankee stadium reopened in 76, no one has ever hit 40 HR's while playing for them.
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Postby Tavish » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:53 pm

godallahstar wrote:Yeah, Plus the fact that since yankee stadium reopened in 76, no one has ever hit 40 HR's while playing for them.


Giambi - 41 in 2003 and 2002
Tino Martinez 44 in 1997
Reggie 41 in 1980
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:54 pm

I'm a "moneyball guy", and I don't think there is any problem with guys like Beltran stealing bases in most situations, because it is almost automatic. I like guys who steal bases, as long as they are in the 80-90% success range.

You're sort of missing the point in fantasy.

In fantasy leagues, the stat is always just the raw number of steals. So then you can take guys who get tossed out half the time, but attempt 80 times per season. In real life, they would hurt your team greatly. That's why I think SB% should ALWAYS be used if SB is a catagory.
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


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Postby godallahstar » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:54 pm

Tavish wrote:
godallahstar wrote:Yeah, Plus the fact that since yankee stadium reopened in 76, no one has ever hit 40 HR's while playing for them.


Giambi - 41 in 2003 and 2002
Tino Mrtinez 44 in 1997
Reggie 41 in 1980


shrug. i just remembered that.

i dunno, i heard some weird stat about 40 HR people at yankee stadium on baseball tonight at the start of the year. guess we'll never know what it was
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Postby thetongueofire » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:56 pm

no righty has ever hit 40 for the Yankees since Mickey Mantle's 54 HR season in 61.
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:57 pm

What do you mean no Yankees have hit 40 HR since 1976? Giambi has done it each of the past 2 seasons. Sheff and A-Rod might do it this year. Reggie Jackson did it in 1980. Tino Martinez did it in 1997. Do you mean all 40 in Yankee Stadium? I don't think anyone's done that in any park.
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Postby Tavish » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:57 pm

Chances are that they were talking about right handed hitters.
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Sep 24, 2004 6:01 pm

Maybe that's because they havn't had any right-handed sluggers :-? Beltran is a switch hitter anyway so he bats left most of the time.
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Postby jsmith378 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:30 pm

i dont know if any1 has mentioned this yet, but Carlos actually proved that some guys CAN develop much better plate discipline. Carlos is a very toolsy guy and he was pretty raw when KC called him up in the late 90's. Now he really has developed a great eye for the strike zone and he walks as much as he strikes out.

That doesnt have anything to do with stolen bases but I'd figure i'd mention it since it kinda went against moneyball logic.
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