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Postby LCBOY » Mon Sep 27, 2004 10:05 pm

Tavish wrote:
DK wrote:LCBOY... I also just had an idea.

I've got one of those baseball video games that is nearly exactly like a simulator. It literally plays out a season, and compiles stats exactly how the player would have achieved them (Give or take for park effects).

Wait, it gets better...

I can take one season from anywhere within a player's prime and put it into the game. I can make every park Neutral, and play out a season with every team made like it is. That way, it's much more real than fantasy.

The only problem I would have is neutralizing players. It'd take a ton of work, but with a little help from you guys I might be able to do it. If my idea isn't well perceived by you guys, it's all good, I'm open to a ton of options.

Thoughts?


Thats basically what I do with my simulator. It takes a player's peak seasons ( I use the top 4 seasons but it would be easy to change it to whatever) adjusts them to the league conditions and places them into the current run scoring enviornment (again, would be easy to change if we wanted to play in the dead-ball era or whenever). For straight seasons (no era conversion) it is pretty accurate. The few times we have used it across eras it ran pretty well, although saying its accurate is pretty impossible. No one has an exact idea how well Honus would be in the current enviornment, but his stats seemed to be within reason.


What kind of numbers did Wagner and some of the other Dead Ball era stars get? For instance did Wagner get any 40-50 HR seasons in your simulation?

Also can it work for Negro League and Japanese League players? Since we have access to complete Japanese players stats I think it could work.
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Postby Tavish » Tue Sep 28, 2004 6:02 pm

LCBOY wrote:What kind of numbers did Wagner and some of the other Dead Ball era stars get? For instance did Wagner get any 40-50 HR seasons in your simulation?


No, the dead ball players didn't get that great of an increase in HRs. I couldn't find our original league statistics so I just ran a quick 50 year simulation and the highest he topped out was at 23.

It took me awhile to decide on how to handle the extreme era normalization and after a long discussion on the SABR-L mailing list I went with the common wisdom that it was a better assumption to keep the players more in line with their actual production than to change the kind of player that they were. I figured if it was good enough logic for the simulators that people like Jarvis and James use, then it was good enough me.

I do remember that in the 5 years that we ran the league, dead ball era players won 2 of the MVP awards (Hornsby and Cobb).

Also can it work for Negro League and Japanese League players? Since we have access to complete Japanese players stats I think it could work.


It could work, I would have to do some research to try and find a good method to normalize the stats (or see if there were enough available stats from the Negro Leagues). I am pretty sure there are some discussions about this on SABR-L so I can look into it if people really wanted to use the players.
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Postby Arlo » Tue Sep 28, 2004 7:42 pm

LCBOY wrote:So far we have 8 teams. Hopefully more will join! Arlo, Madison, DK, are you guys up for this?

Yep. :-)
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Postby LCBOY » Tue Sep 28, 2004 9:10 pm

Tavish wrote:
LCBOY wrote:What kind of numbers did Wagner and some of the other Dead Ball era stars get? For instance did Wagner get any 40-50 HR seasons in your simulation?


No, the dead ball players didn't get that great of an increase in HRs. I couldn't find our original league statistics so I just ran a quick 50 year simulation and the highest he topped out was at 23.

It took me awhile to decide on how to handle the extreme era normalization and after a long discussion on the SABR-L mailing list I went with the common wisdom that it was a better assumption to keep the players more in line with their actual production than to change the kind of player that they were. I figured if it was good enough logic for the simulators that people like Jarvis and James use, then it was good enough me.

I do remember that in the 5 years that we ran the league, dead ball era players won 2 of the MVP awards (Hornsby and Cobb).

Also can it work for Negro League and Japanese League players? Since we have access to complete Japanese players stats I think it could work.


It could work, I would have to do some research to try and find a good method to normalize the stats (or see if there were enough available stats from the Negro Leagues). I am pretty sure there are some discussions about this on SABR-L so I can look into it if people really wanted to use the players.


So did the numbers of Ruth Foxx, Gerhig drop in your simulations?
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Postby Tavish » Tue Sep 28, 2004 10:53 pm

So did the numbers of Ruth Foxx, Gerhig drop in your simulations?


Not really. Pretty much every hitter's stats dropped slightly, but that was more due to the fact that every team had *much* better overall pitching. When a team can throw Pedro, Hubbell, Palmer, Glavine, Saberhagen* its not too surprsing that teams didn't explode offensively. Pitcher's stats tended to inflate some due to the overall talent of the hitters, hitters stats tended to decrease some due to the overall strength of the pitchers.

I'll run a few seasons and transfer the stats over to HTML so those interested can see what they look like when all is said and done.

*That was my starting rotation the final season and there were a few that were much stronger.
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Postby LCBOY » Wed Sep 29, 2004 12:14 am

Tavish wrote:
So did the numbers of Ruth Foxx, Gerhig drop in your simulations?


Not really. Pretty much every hitter's stats dropped slightly, but that was more due to the fact that every team had *much* better overall pitching. When a team can throw Pedro, Hubbell, Palmer, Glavine, Saberhagen* its not too surprsing that teams didn't explode offensively. Pitcher's stats tended to inflate some due to the overall talent of the hitters, hitters stats tended to decrease some due to the overall strength of the pitchers.

I'll run a few seasons and transfer the stats over to HTML so those interested can see what they look like when all is said and done.

*That was my starting rotation the final season and there were a few that were much stronger.


This all sounds interesting. ;-D My only "concern" is for the Dead Ball stars. As DK well knows ( :-D ) I'm a huge Wagner fan. I STRONGLY believe that had Wagner been born 20 years later he and Ruth would have been chasing 700 home runs. Wagner was an incredically strong and powerful athlete. He was hitting 450 foot HRs with the "dead" ball. I look forward to to seeing the stats that your simualtions have generated. ;-D
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Postby LCBOY » Wed Sep 29, 2004 12:41 am

Arlo wrote:
LCBOY wrote:So far we have 8 teams. Hopefully more will join! Arlo, Madison, DK, are you guys up for this?

Yep. :-)


That's cool!

01 - LCBOY
02 - so0perspam
03 - kimchi_chigae
04 - Bigblue
05 - hybrid
06 - Pogotheostrich
07 - raiders_umpire
08 - warrick95
09 - DK
10- Arlo
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Postby LCBOY » Fri Oct 01, 2004 4:00 pm

Ok, we need at least six more managers. Anyone else interested in joining? :-)
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Postby LCBOY » Fri Oct 01, 2004 7:20 pm

tavish, Madison, you guys interested?
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Postby Madison » Fri Oct 01, 2004 8:25 pm

Sorry LCBoy, but I'm going to take a pass. I appreciate the offer though. :-)
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