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Forming a Moneyball league next year... need input

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Postby LBJackal » Wed Sep 22, 2004 6:50 pm

A single seems to be better than a walk in lots of situations. First of all, if there's a man on 2nd or 3rd you'll probably drive somebody in, if not 2 men. If there's a man on first you can advance him to third (sac fly territory) and also keep the force off of 3B. Definately seems to be more beneficial than a walk 8% of the time :-? But I don't know for sure, it just seems logical.
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Postby DK » Wed Sep 22, 2004 7:27 pm

LBJackal wrote:A single seems to be better than a walk in lots of situations. First of all, if there's a man on 2nd or 3rd you'll probably drive somebody in, if not 2 men. If there's a man on first you can advance him to third (sac fly territory) and also keep the force off of 3B. Definately seems to be more beneficial than a walk 8% of the time :-? But I don't know for sure, it just seems logical.


Well, it does seem logical, but when you think about it, much of the time a player isn't in those situations; as a matter of fact, roughly 8 or 9 percent of the time a player is. Most of the time it's none on, man on first, men on 1st and second, etc.

Even when you're in a situation with a man on second, a single might not even get you the run. Charles Johnson on second, he's not going unless it's Bernie Williams throwing it in.

When you factor in all the situations, it's about 8% better, like you said.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Sep 22, 2004 7:32 pm

It just doesn't seem right that 92% of the time, when you get a single, there's either nobody on, or a slow guy on 1B that won't advance to third. Are ya sure? :-B
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Postby Tavish » Wed Sep 22, 2004 7:38 pm

The value of a single over a walk is quite abit more than 8%. It's much closer to 30% more valuable than a walk. The *only* time a walk and a single are of the exact same value is when the bases are empty. Walks are still valuable in other situations, just not as valuable as a hit.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Sep 22, 2004 7:44 pm

30% seems better. 8% seems so insignificant......

so I guess HBP/BB should be worth 2 and singles worth 3 :-D
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Postby Tavish » Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:08 pm

If you are going to do a point system, the easiest and most tested system would be to simply institute the linear weights values.

+ Singles * .46
+ Doubles * .8
+ Triples * 1.02
+ HR * 1.4
+ Walks * .33
+ SB * .3
- CS * .6
- Outs * .25
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:07 pm

According to that, a guy with 600 PA's and 600 BB's is more valuable than a guy with 200 HR's and the rest outs (.333 BA) in the same amount of PA's.

There Mad, convinced? Even a guy with 200 HR's wouldn't be as valuable as a guy who walks every time up. It might not be 100% accurate, but when was the last time somebody hit 200 HR's anyway? Would you still take a slugger with 50 HR over a guy with 600 BB's?
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Postby DK » Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:20 pm

Ah... Of course.

I also had a feeling I was off, I re-checked my analysis and realized I made a basic math error. It's more like 30%, Tavish is right...

Apologies. I know you will never be able to forgive me, I'll go sit in eternal FB damnation. }:-) :-b
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:47 pm

DK wrote:Ah... Of course.

I also had a feeling I was off, I re-checked my analysis and realized I made a basic math error. It's more like 30%, Tavish is right...

Apologies. I know you will never be able to forgive me, I'll go sit in eternal FB damnation. }:-) :-b


We won't burn you at the stake :-b

Trade me Ben Sheets in your auction league and I'll even be your friend :-D
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Postby Registered_Guest » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:50 am

"Loaiza Lookout 2K4 :: 9-6, 5.07 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 94 K's "

I think you need to update: 10-7 5.45 ERA 1.53 WHIP 110 K's

The ERA nor WHIP do justice on how truly awful Loaiza was been.
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