Hey guys. I've been following the cafe since I found it this spring, and it has offered a lot of helpful insight. After reading through this huge "who deserves AL Cy Young" thread, I had to register just so I could respond
Santana is the AL Cy Young right now, unless he gets his teeth kicked in over the next few weeks and Schilling throws a couple masterpieces. Santana leads in virtually all pitching categories other than wins. Although I can't find the stats right now, I would strongly suspect Schilling has seen a lot more runs to work with than Santana. Boston has scored almost 150 more runs than Minnesota, 853-708. So if we can assume Santana would have 2 more wins with Boston's offense, the 2 win difference is negligible.
Looking closer at their seasons', of course it jumps out that Santana started very slow due to recovery from surgury, tipping his pitches, whatever it was. Schilling was fairly consistent from April until now. But does a slow start, vs. a consistent year, matter? If 2 pitchers give you 20-ish wins in 220+ innings, I don't think it matters whether they were the tortoise or the hare. They gave you a dominating year.
For you guys who think Schilling should/could win the Cy Young....no mention of the interleague schedule? Santana had 4 starts against the Mets, Expos, and Brewers twice, while Schilling drew the Padres, Phillies, Braves, and Rockies in Colorado. Quite a difference, huh? Won't be factored into the voting, but interesting...
Schilling vs. NYY so far : 11.2 IP, 6.17 ERA, 1.89 WHIP vs. OAK 12.1 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .351 BAA
Those numbers don't help his case. If anything, some of his struggles have come at bad times against Boston's biggest rivals. Of course, you could say Santana has had fewer "big" games because Minnestoa is a playoff lock...but still...a Cy Young should be at his best when it counts the most, no?
Voters always have a soft spot for the wins, no matter what the other numbers are. Schilling will have more wins, but it won't matter...Santana can still win 20 too, and along with all his statistical advantages is the easy pick. The only times a starting pitcher who is dominating the pitching categories like Santana doesn't win the Cy Young is when his team is a non-contender and he is deemed "less valuable" because of it. Since the Twins are going to the playoffs....thats obviously not the case here.
Great year for both, but the Cy Young is Santana's to lose.
Here's a question (now that my rant is over
Since Santana isn't a playoff-tested veteran like Schilling....who'd you rather have starting a decisive game 7?