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Any doubt on AL Cy Young?

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Postby RayD » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:40 am

Jester wrote:I'm confused with this argument. Are those who are saying K's shouldn't matter also saying Santana should not get the Cy Young, or are they completely unrelated? Also, has anyone else noticed the only pitchers being considered for this years Cy Young are all K pitchers??? I find it hard to believe that’s just a coincidence.

Now you will probably say that non-k pitchers “should” get more consideration, but its so rare that that would happen, that I think this argument is a mute point.


Well, Mark Mulder (not only is he not a strikeout pitcher, he walks more guys than he probably should, too) was getting a lot of consideration this year until reality started catching up with his ERA+.

I'm sort of on the fence as to whether you should exclusively use stats that have predictive value to determine end-of-season award winners. I mean, yeah, by all means use predictive stats (K/BB/HR against for pitchers) to figure out who to draft in your fantasy league next year. But I'm not sure we should totally disregard backward-looking stats (pure ERA, for example) when we're determining award winners.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:50 am

DK wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:Strikeouts are much more useful at predicting the future than ERA. Year to year ERA flucuates much more the Ks. The point is that in terms of who is the better pitcher this year (Cy Young Award), Ks are overrated. It doesn't matter how the pitcher recorded the out. If I want to know who to draft next year I will look at Ks, but in the context of success during the season Ks aren't useful as WHIP and ERA.


Well, knowing how lucky a pitcher was in a season certainly means something to me. Would you rather have the luckiest pitcher of all time win the Cy Young Award, or someone who truly deserved it?

Someone who allows many fewer hits per balls in play may be considered a trickster- for one year. He'll regress back to normal very soon.
Luck is going to be a factor no matter how many strike outs a pitcher gets. Fact is a pitcher's job is to stop teams from scoring. I don't care if they strike out the side or get three pop ups. For the Cy Young Award, I want to know who is the most effective not luckiest pitcher and ERA and WHIP do a much better job of that than strikeouts.
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Postby Jester » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:14 am

Just an aside, cause I think this is very important to this debat:

Recent previous NL CY Award winners

1991 - Tom Glavine - 2.55 ERA

1992-1995 - Greg Maddox
92 - 2.18 ERA
93 - 2.36 ERA
93 - 1.56 ERA (My God)
94 - 1.63 ERA

I would say ERA is a major factor in deciding Cy Young, but when you don't have freaks of nature like these (non-k) pitchers, you have to fall back on other things...and k's simply have to be considered in showing pitcher dominance.


Just for the record - Johan Santana 2.76 ERA
Curt Shilling - 3.35 ERA
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Postby RayD » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:28 am

DK wrote:Here, I found one (and, it was directed at you, who never responded, LBJ)

DK wrote:Because the pitcher with a higher K rate has a much better chance of future success, and I mean MUCH better. Example: Ryan Franklin 2003 and 2004.

Every stat is flawed. ERA+ with park adjustments is a good stat. QS is incredibly flawed. 4.50 ERA and every start is considered "quality"? Come on.

You predict the future by judging past results. That's why people draft Randy Johnson ahead of Brian Anderson. You favor the pitcher with a lot of K's because he put less strain on his fielders. A K eliminates the chance of luck, or the chance that a fielder makes a bad play/error.

I'll use Ryan Franklin again, in comparison to Brad Radke in 2003.

Player ERA HA K IP HRA BB
Radke 4.49 242 120 212 32 28
Franklin 3.57 199 99 212.1 34 61

Almost identical IP, but very different in other #'s. Radke gave up 30 more hits than innings, while Franklin gave up ~13 hits less than innings. Now, Radke had more K (and, obviously, a higher K/9). Radke also had a much better K/BB rate, and gave up less HR (although it's about even, so HR can pretty much be canceled out). Despite all that, Franklin had a 3.57 ERA. Why?

Because he got lucky. As a matter of fact, that has to be one of the luckiest years ever (because Franklin gave up a high amount of HR in a pitcher's park), and I would not be surprised if it was in the top 10 of lucky years (although I don't have the stats with me). Now, if my theory (that a pitcher can control HR allowed, K, and BB; and cannot control the H/BIP, therefore making that stat useless in evaluating a pitcher), Franklin's ERA should go up and Radke's should go down (or, at least much less than Franklin's ERA).

2004:

Player ERA HA K IP HRA BB
Radke 3.77 160 97 148 18 12
Franklin5.12 150 67 130 18 39

Sho' nuff.

You want more examples, I'll give them to you- from nearly every era in baseball (pitcher's era, hitter's era, etc.). It works out (nearly) every time. I would say, roughly 99% of the time when the pitchers are this different.


That's all well and good, but Ryan Franklin threw a two hit shutout last night. I guess your whole argument just went out the window.









;-)
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Postby DK » Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:39 am

RayD wrote:
DK wrote:Here, I found one (and, it was directed at you, who never responded, LBJ)

DK wrote:Because the pitcher with a higher K rate has a much better chance of future success, and I mean MUCH better. Example: Ryan Franklin 2003 and 2004.

Every stat is flawed. ERA+ with park adjustments is a good stat. QS is incredibly flawed. 4.50 ERA and every start is considered "quality"? Come on.

You predict the future by judging past results. That's why people draft Randy Johnson ahead of Brian Anderson. You favor the pitcher with a lot of K's because he put less strain on his fielders. A K eliminates the chance of luck, or the chance that a fielder makes a bad play/error.

I'll use Ryan Franklin again, in comparison to Brad Radke in 2003.

Player ERA HA K IP HRA BB
Radke 4.49 242 120 212 32 28
Franklin 3.57 199 99 212.1 34 61

Almost identical IP, but very different in other #'s. Radke gave up 30 more hits than innings, while Franklin gave up ~13 hits less than innings. Now, Radke had more K (and, obviously, a higher K/9). Radke also had a much better K/BB rate, and gave up less HR (although it's about even, so HR can pretty much be canceled out). Despite all that, Franklin had a 3.57 ERA. Why?

Because he got lucky. As a matter of fact, that has to be one of the luckiest years ever (because Franklin gave up a high amount of HR in a pitcher's park), and I would not be surprised if it was in the top 10 of lucky years (although I don't have the stats with me). Now, if my theory (that a pitcher can control HR allowed, K, and BB; and cannot control the H/BIP, therefore making that stat useless in evaluating a pitcher), Franklin's ERA should go up and Radke's should go down (or, at least much less than Franklin's ERA).

2004:

Player ERA HA K IP HRA BB
Radke 3.77 160 97 148 18 12
Franklin5.12 150 67 130 18 39

Sho' nuff.

You want more examples, I'll give them to you- from nearly every era in baseball (pitcher's era, hitter's era, etc.). It works out (nearly) every time. I would say, roughly 99% of the time when the pitchers are this different.


That's all well and good, but Ryan Franklin threw a two hit shutout last night. I guess your whole argument just went out the window.









;-)


Lucky bastard. :D
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Postby Tavish » Thu Sep 16, 2004 1:18 pm

RayD wrote:I'm sort of on the fence as to whether you should exclusively use stats that have predictive value to determine end-of-season award winners. I mean, yeah, by all means use predictive stats (K/BB/HR against for pitchers) to figure out who to draft in your fantasy league next year. But I'm not sure we should totally disregard backward-looking stats (pure ERA, for example) when we're determining award winners.


I don't think anyone is saying that K's/Walks/HRA should be the exclusive criteria. Actually I don't think anyone has said those stats are more important than ERA for determining who should win the award. Only that you should not ignore them, they can give you more information on how well a pitcher performed.

Jester wrote:1992-1995 - Greg Maddox
92 - 2.18 ERA
93 - 2.36 ERA
93 - 1.56 ERA (My God)
94 - 1.63 ERA

I would say ERA is a major factor in deciding Cy Young, but when you don't have freaks of nature like these (non-k) pitchers, you have to fall back on other things...and k's simply have to be considered in showing pitcher dominance.


Maddux had amazing seasons those years, but just FYI. Maddux ranked 3rd in K's every one of his Cy Young years, he wasn't exactly a pushover. Glavine was in the same postition the year he won the award.
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Postby Jester » Thu Sep 16, 2004 1:27 pm

Wow, really, well I'm officially sold...k's are a KEY factor in deciding a CY Young.
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Postby DK » Thu Sep 16, 2004 1:40 pm

Jester wrote:Wow, really, well I'm officially sold...k's are a KEY factor in deciding a CY Young.


We've got another one. :D
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Postby thetongueofire » Thu Sep 16, 2004 1:45 pm

lol welcome to the club Jester. :-D
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Postby Tavish » Thu Sep 16, 2004 1:57 pm

Jester wrote:Wow, really, well I'm officially sold...k's are a KEY factor in deciding a CY Young.


Truthfully Maddux would have won those awards with or without the K's most likely all four years (most definitely in 94-95). I was just pointing it out since it seems he is always used as the poster-boy for great non-K pitchers (not you specifically).

There was an interesting study done a couple of years ago to try and figure out what the voters looked at to determine the Cy Young award. They took each of the main pitching categories and determined the percentage of the votes the league leader in that category received.

<pre>Year W Diff IP W W PCT ERA WHIP K K : BB
Avg 41.76% 24.63% 45.47% 32.15% 29.53% 25.93% 23.91% 18.91%
Since 70.69% 45.64% 69.20% 56.37% 63.53% 47.08% 50.13% 33.27%
1990
</pre>

Voters have started taking K's more into consideration over the last 15 years, but Wins (and the various win derived stats) are still what the voters look for. The ERA leader gets more credit than the K leader, which is how it should be.
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