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Any doubt on AL Cy Young?

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Postby Ender » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:44 pm

Schilling 20W, 3.28 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

Santana 19W, 2.65 ERA, 0.92 WHIP


Right now Santana has the edge but its not a huge edge at all. Things could change with the last few starts. Schilling has been pitching great but Santana has been perfect lately so my guess is Santana wins it.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Sep 22, 2004 6:14 pm

It's actually a pretty big edge. One that can't be overcome even if Schilling has 2 more of his previous outings before the season is over. Santana would have to give up about 20 ER in his remaining 2 starts for their ERA's to be equal. The one extra win isn't a great accomplishment considering Schilling has the best offense in baseball. I'd say 20 ER is a pretty big difference anyway even if Santana had 5 less wins.
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Postby davus » Wed Sep 22, 2004 10:14 pm

That's what I was thinking. If you have a guy with with a 3.91 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and around the same wins would you say he is in the same class as Schilling?

IMO, it's a very substantial lead.
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Postby Ender » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:33 am

I don't know, ERA is a pretty useless stat. Santana gets shelled one game, Schilling pitches a shutout and their stats are close to even again. I still think those stats are pretty close and as I said right now I'd give it to Santana and I would expect Santana to close the year out well and win it, but its hardly a lock yet.

Its not likely to happen but what if Santana pitches 2 IP, 7 ER his next start. Suddenly his ERA jumps to 2.92. Schilling pitches a 9 IP shutout. His ERA is down to 3.16. One game, albeit an unlikely game puts their ERA pretty darn close to each other. I don't think his lead is so huge that you can call it a *lock* yet was my original point. Santana has a lead but its not locked up.
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