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strategy down the stretch, please help!

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strategy down the stretch, please help!

Postby great gretzky » Fri Sep 03, 2004 11:09 am

I am in the mix for the title. But I have a dillemma -- My closers are: f. cordero, c. cordero, wickman. I can't move up a point at all, and am 8 ahead of two teams: one has putz, aquino, nathan, graves, frasor. another has benitez/mota, worrell.

is it worth it to concede the one point? in saves and dump wickman and cordero in favor of high strikeout middle relievers? Can the beneitez team catch me if I keep f. cordero?

four
wins moves me up four points. 20 k's is another, 35 k's is another. .08 in era
is 2 points, .18 is three. think those are better to chase, than to fight
the one point loss in saves? or think an 8 save lead with cordero can hold
him off?

seems to me givign up one point to possibly gain two or three might be worth it. and depending on how the wire works, could maybe deal off a closer to a team that could knock down my comp.

or should i only drop one for now, lest the team with benitez get him. any help would be appreciated. (for now, I am playing romero, cararra, ayala, f. cordero, would like to get gonzelex or donnelly or something)
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Postby raiders_umpire » Fri Sep 03, 2004 11:55 am

i think it is worth a shot as long as those 2 teams are not in the waiver wire priority to get cordero or wickman....pick up the MR and hope for the wins and k's to come to you......plus i dont think the benitez team will catch u anyways as f cordero should still pull in about 6-8 saves this month and that would give u a 14 saves lead or so....doubt benitez and worrell get that....
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Postby great gretzky » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:29 pm

it's hard to tell who would pick them up. actually, I don't really care if the guy I am yielding saves to gets one of them. The benitez one woudl be a problem though.

The nathan team has the higher priority -- should I release wickman first, to make sure he gets the better save generator (since he will pass me anyway) then dump cordero later?
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Postby bleach168 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:20 pm

The guy with 5 closers, if he's smart, will not pick up your closers since it's a sure thing he will already pass you and you make it sound like no one above you can be caught.

That means the guy with 2 closers will probably end up with at least 3, maybe 4 closers thanks to you. He'll most likely pass you too, so you will lose two points.

4 points for 4 wins is very possible. I would do spot starts against bad teams like ARI and KC. I think this is your best shot at gaining points. Gaining points in the other categories is much harder.

What strategy you plan to use really depends on how many points you need. If you're already in first and want to pad your lead a little, drop your closers and pick up spot starters to get those 4 wins. If you are behind and need to make up a lot of ground, go with MR's and pray they get you vulture wins while helping you in the other cats.
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Postby Madison » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:24 pm

I'd drop one of you MR's and grab Speier if he's availiable since it appears he's the man in Toronto now. The idea of dropping two points guaranteed in saves while maybe making up a few points in other catagories is not something I personally would do. I'd solidify the saves question by grabbing whoever I could and then create a roster spot for use as a spot starter position to give the run at wins and k's.
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Postby Tavish » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:28 pm

Madison wrote:I'd drop one of you MR's and grab Speier if he's availiable since it appears he's the man in Toronto now. The idea of dropping two points guaranteed in saves while maybe making up a few points in other catagories is not something I personally would do. I'd solidify the saves question by grabbing whoever I could and then create a roster spot for use as a spot starter position to give the run at wins and k's.


I completely agree. If you want to gain ground in wins, the last place I would look is MR. Spot starting or adding another average pitcher would be a better option. Trying to get wins with MR is way too unpredictable, especially if you are going to sacrifice a couple of points in order to do so. Closers will generate about the same vulture win chances.
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Postby great gretzky » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:38 pm

well here is the deal. the guy who is behind me won't get one if I peel one off, his waiver is too low and at the top there is a save battle, so I can be reasoabnbly assured that one of the top five waiver prioriities would use it to get one of my closers.

wins is ketchy I know, but cordero and wickman are destroying my whi[p -- so I need to hold whip, gain in k's, era and wins. I know chasing vulture wins is risky business. But I aslo know given my rotation (schilling, c. zambrano, arroyo, mulder) isn't going to catch me up -- and these closers aren't doing me any favors era.

I was thinking that I could yield to the first guy, but not the second.

Is f. cordero and wickman enough to hold of benitez and worrell with an 8 save lead? I may not outright cut the other cordero ... jsut bench him

I don't really view it as dropping two points guranteed, as I am albut guranteed of losing one point (debateable I know)

If I follow your guys advice, any spot starters to utilize? I am thinking now keep high k mr's, and play wickman, f. cordero.
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Postby bleach168 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:47 pm

I see what you are saying. While closers will average about 6-7 saves a month, it can wildly fluctuate between 3-15 saves. Keeping Cordero and Wickman should be enough so that you only lose 1 point but there are no guarantees. Benching one of your bad closers sounds like a great way to save your WHIP while insuring that if your lead dwindles too quickly, you can go back to the 3 closer strategy.

Hopefully you have the roster space to do this while having one more open slot so you can spot start.
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Postby great gretzky » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:58 pm

thanks for all of your help BTW. i really don't want to choke this year, It is a work league for a good amount of dough.

the other consideration here is that the guy I am chasing is also vulnerable in saves. he is six ahead with kolb, hermanson, affeldt, krod, gordon and the guy chasing him has: gagne, isringhausen, chacon and baez. So I may not be totally screwed if I yield both points, although for obvious reasons, would prefer not to.

I have extra spots to dump/add if need be, I have crosby and jenkins on the bench (11 team league)
starting lineup is: aj pierzinski, tex, m. giles, blalock, furcal, chipper, o. hudson, abreu, pujols, beltran ,dmitri young, hafner -- hitters

then I have schilling, mulder, c. zambrano, byrd, arroyo, carrara, gonzalez, f and c cordero, wickman, romero.

so I figure jenkins, crosby, and some of the mr's are expendable for the cause.

totally tight and down to the wire (incidentally, got said team due tot he cafe)

ultimately, the onyl areas I can move are hr (.1 pt) rbi (2 pts) wins (? five wins seperate like four points), k's and era above

so ultimately, how do I yield one and only one in saves in an effort to gain other points while being 35 over in innings -- tough.
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Postby mikcou » Fri Sep 03, 2004 11:51 pm

Tavish wrote:
Madison wrote:I'd drop one of you MR's and grab Speier if he's availiable since it appears he's the man in Toronto now. The idea of dropping two points guaranteed in saves while maybe making up a few points in other catagories is not something I personally would do. I'd solidify the saves question by grabbing whoever I could and then create a roster spot for use as a spot starter position to give the run at wins and k's.


I completely agree. If you want to gain ground in wins, the last place I would look is MR. Spot starting or adding another average pitcher would be a better option. Trying to get wins with MR is way too unpredictable, especially if you are going to sacrifice a couple of points in order to do so. Closers will generate about the same vulture win chances.


I agree as well ;-D
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