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urbina or mesa?

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urbina or mesa?

Postby terpfan » Fri Aug 02, 2002 8:50 pm

someone in my league just dropped urbina and i was wondering if i should drop my worst closer (mesa) for him. everyone seems to be predicting mesas demise but urbina has looked bad recently too. mesa has 6 more saves and a lower ERA i believe. will mesa collapse? should i make the swap?
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Postby terpfan » Fri Aug 02, 2002 8:52 pm

check that - 5 saves more... my bad.
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I....

Postby ntremain23 » Fri Aug 02, 2002 9:38 pm

I believe that Mesa is a little shaky,but I have Mesa on one of my teams and i'm not sure if i'm going to fall for the demise in second half crap that i've been hearing.BUT,Urbina's solid.He's playing on a lot better team and has a better pitching staff to work with.I would say either one is going to get you solid numbers.
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Postby SirStanley » Fri Aug 02, 2002 10:36 pm

Urbina is going to get a lot more opportunities playing for the Red Sox..I would go with him
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Postby terpfan » Sat Aug 03, 2002 6:58 pm

Well people say that closers on better teams will get more saves but as of right now mesa has 31 saves and urbinas in the mid 20's. i just realized that in order to get the save the closer's team must not only be involved in winning games but in games with close scores. when a bad team wins they usually win by a small margin, thus enabling the closer to get more or as many saves as a closer on a team that will light up the scoreboard... am i just trying to make myself sound smart, or does that make any sense?
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Postby EugeneStyles » Sat Aug 03, 2002 9:28 pm

People who say that closers on better teams will get more saves are arguing by logic rather than experience. Historically, some of the best closers have been on mediocre teams.

Instead of looking at a team's win-loss record, look at the margin by which they win or lose games (in other words, IMHO you are right, terpfan). A team that wins by its pitching (like the Braves have been for the last several years), generally scores fewer runs, so its victories will general involve save opportunities. A team that wins by its hitting (like the Rockies historically - when they win at least) will likely have fewer save opportunities.

All in all, a good closer will get his 40 saves, even if his team only wins 60 or 70 games. If all else is equal, go with the closer from the better team. If all else is not equal, just go with the best closer. In this case, I think Mesa is the better bet. If you have room on your bench for Urbina, pick him up, but don't take him just cause he's on a better team.
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Postby terpfan » Sun Aug 04, 2002 1:06 pm

Thanks guys. Great feedback.
I stuck with Mesa.
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