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WHEN TO DUMP CLOSERS FOR OTHERS??

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WHEN TO DUMP CLOSERS FOR OTHERS??

Postby Lofunzo » Tue Aug 17, 2004 1:52 am

I am in a 10 team 5X5 roto league and I am up on saves by 19 over my closest competitor. I have F. Cordero and Benitez along with a few mediocre closers (C. Cordero and Frasor). What I am thinking of doing is dropping C. Cordero and Frasor in the near future. They are killing my WHIP lately and I'm not sure how long I need their saves. Here is a list of the closest guys in saves in my league along with who they have at closer:

Me (121)
Benitez
F. Cordero
Frasor
C. Cordero

102
Julio
Mesa
Chacon

95
Dotel
Worrell
Isringhausen
Lidge
Aquino

86
Urbina
Rivera
Kolb
Nathan

The main guy that I'm worried about is the 1 with 95 saves and 5 closers. I don't have any immediate needs but could pick someone else up to help when I need it.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Aug 17, 2004 1:57 am

You're set with Benitez and F.Cordero. Trade the other two away for scrubs and drop the scrubs...... no need to help your competition by dropping closers ;-)

Also, if the guy closest to you in the overall standings is in a tight race with somebody else for say, 7th place in saves, or something like that, trade the closers to the guy who is trying to get ahead of your main competitor. You won't put your points for saves in jeopardy but you still increase your lead on the guy. It's better than just dropping them.
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Aug 17, 2004 1:59 am

Thanks for the response. Unfortunately, the trade deadline just passed. I had offered some of the bums to other guys but there wasn't any interest. Once they hit the WW, that's probably another issue. :-?
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Postby Dodger Blue » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:14 am

Well the guy with 5 closers isn't going to pick them up. Maybe the guy with 102. I wouldn't drop both of them just Cordero. He'll get maybe 10 the rest of the year. That wouldn't hurt too much probably.
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Postby Tavish » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:28 am

Closers on average save a little less than 50% of a teams wins. I'll do the math with the current team winning percentage, suit it to what you think will happen. The number after the closer would be the team wins and the number of saves you could expect out of the closer.


Me (121)
Benitez - 22 wins 10 saves
F. Cordero - 25 wins 11 saves
Frasor - 17 wins 7 saves
C. Cordero - 18 wins 8 saves

Total of 157 saves

102
Julio - 23 wins 10 saves
Mesa - 22 wins 10 saves
Chacon - 19 wins 8 saves

Total of 130 saves

95
Dotel - 24 wins 11 saves
Worrell - 22 wins 10 saves
Isringhausen - 29 wins 13 saves
Lidge - 22 wins 10 saves
Aquino - 12 wins 5 saves

Total of 136 saves


86
Urbina 20 wins 9 saves
Rivera - 28 wins 13 saves
Kolb - 21 wins 9 saves
Nathan - 24 wins 11 saves

Total of 128 saves


I've used this method several times in the past and as a general formula it has always worked. It has backfired one time because I dropped two closers early and a guy picked them up going to 6 closers to make a late season push (the formula still worked out right, I just hadn't counted on the extra 15 saves he picked up :,-( ).

You should be absoultely safe dropping one of your two trouble makers right away. If you feel pretty confident drop them both. If not, then I would wait a week or two before dropping the second.
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:30 am

Thanks, Tavish and everyone else for their thoughts on this. Since I don't have an immediate need (other than for Crawford to swipe some more bags), I am gonna put those 2 on the bench for a week or so. :-?
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Postby George_Foreman » Tue Aug 17, 2004 3:24 am

why not dump them for a scott linebrink or demaso marte and improve your whip/era, get a few more ks out of your remaining innings, and perhaps even vultur some wins? that's what i plan to do in the near future... especially if takatsu/cordero keep bombing. :-P
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Postby Arlo » Tue Aug 17, 2004 5:49 am

Dodger Blue wrote:Well the guy with 5 closers isn't going to pick them up.

I'm not sure about that. If you have a reasonably sized bench, I'd think he almost has to try to pick up at least one, if only to keep the 102-save team from grabbing both.

Keeping them on the bench for a week sounds like a good plan, Lo. ;-D
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Postby thehat » Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:35 am

I'd be scanning the wire to see what's available now. If Howry and/or Mike Gonzalez are there, I'd jump. Both are in great form and it's not inconceivable you could steal a few saves from one or both later. Linebrink won't ever close for SD, but who can argue with his 3 or 4 rock solid IP virtually every week. Ditto for Otsuka. There are a handful of others in the MR class that can help a bit as well.
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Postby great gretzky » Tue Aug 17, 2004 9:35 am

actually, I was thinking of the same thing, I can't catch the person in front of me, and twelve ahead of the next person (has benitez and worrell) , 15 on dotel/wagner, and 16 on nathan, graves, frasor.

I have f. cordero, c. cordero and wickman.

should c. cordero get the bench for a while? can I really be caught? I am worried about the nathan team, but I figure my lead fo 16 is like having a closer. thoughts?
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