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Strategy question--how hard to chase steals?

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Strategy question--how hard to chase steals?

Postby BobbyRoberto » Sun Aug 08, 2004 11:44 pm

I'm battling it out for 1st place in my league and have a strategy question. It's a 12-team league, we have 10 hitters/team. The stat categories are: R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, SLG.

The categories I can move up or down the most in are Runs, RBI, SB.

Within reason, I could move up 3 pts in runs, or down 2 pts.
I could move up 6 points in RBI, not likely to move down any.
I can't really move up in steals at all, could drop down about 3 pts.

So I'm looking at dropping Juan Pierre, who gives me mainly runs and steals--but not nearly the amount of steals I was hoping for. If I drop him, it's likely I'd drop those 3 pts in the SB category, and I'd try to make it up in RBI.

There are some RBI-guys available:
Milton Bradley
Kevin Millar
Richard Hidalgo (who's been slumping lately, though)
Wily Mo Pena
Geoff Jenkins (having a disappointing season)

And there is Aaron Rowand, who has been great the last few weeks and might also keep me up there in steals.

Justin Morneau is available, but I couldn't drop Pierre for him, I'd have to hold onto Pierre and drop Dmitri Young if I wanted Morneau.

Is it a good idea to drop Pierre and get an RBI-guy? Does anyone think Morneau is so much better than Dmitri Young that I should get him while I can and worry about doing something with Pierre next time around (2 weeks)?
Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'
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Postby Mustangs989 » Sun Aug 08, 2004 11:47 pm

I would think Pierre would have some trade value around your league. While he's been a dissapointment this year it's not like he doesn't steal at all. I'd see what you can get for him before dropping him.
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Sun Aug 08, 2004 11:58 pm

Oh yeah, I should have mentioned this but we have no trades in this league. I know, it's crazy, but that was the consensus from the beginning--no trades. Just waiver wire moves. So if I want to replace Pierre, I have to just drop him and pick someone else up.
Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'
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Postby warrick95 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:45 am

Can you get a full screen shot of your leagues' standings? CTRL+prt scrn then paste it onto Paint or another program that does pics, then host it somewhere, like http://www.photobucket.com
I'd like to see the entire standings before offering advice. Dropping Pierre could turn out to be a horrible mistake.
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:09 am

Okay, it's not a screen shot, but this is how things look. The team I'm running neck-and-neck with is Brauer.

Runs
Brauer--686, 12 pts
B.O.S.S.--629, 11 pts
Da Poi--623, 10 pts
PH7--618, 9 pts
ME--615, 8 pts
Moroners--605, 7 pts
Dirty Dozen--600, 6 pts
Donkies--572, 5 pts
>I figure it's possible to move up 3 pts, but not up to the top. Also possible to drop a couple pts but not likely 3 pts.
>In a normal week, 35 runs is an average number


HR
Big Red--195, 12 pts
ME--186, 11 pts
Studs--176, 10 pts
B.O.S.S.--169, 9 pts
>Pretty good spacing here, not much room to move up or down
>In a normal week, 8-10 HR is about average


RBI
Brauer--603, 12 pts
B.O.S.S.--602, 11 pts
Power--601, 10 pts
Big Red--598, 9 pts
Studs--595, 8 pts
ME--585, 7 pts
Moroners--584, 6 pts
Da Poi--550, 5 pts
>I think I could catch the top team, won't likely fall more than a point
>In a normal week, about 35 RBI is average


SB
Brauer--94, 12 pts
Da Poi--92, 11 pts
B.O.S.S.--91, 10 pts
Dirty--77, 9 pts
Moroners--73, 8 pts
ME--65, 7 pts
PH7--64, 6 pts
Donkies--63, 5 pts
Power--62, 4 pts
Godfathers--53, 3 pts
>I don't think I'll catch the team ahead of me, but could drop 3 points easily
>In a normal week, teams average around 5-7 SB


OBP
ME--.386, 12 pts
Brauer--.374, 11 pts
B.O.S.S.--.371, 10 pts
PH7--.369, 9 pts
>I'm feeling good in this category

SLG
ME--.507, 12 pts
Big Red--.506, 11 pts
B.O.S.S.--.482, 10 pts
>It's between me and one other guy, going back and forth, then a big gap to the next guy

Players I'd consider dropping:
1) Jacque Jones for Kevin Millar, Richard Hidalgo, or Wily Mo Pena
2) Juan Pierre for Aaron Rowand, Milton Bradley, Mark Kotsay, Kevin Millar, Richard Hidalgo, Wily Mo Pena, Corey Patterson, Justin Morneau
3) Dmitri Young for Aaron Rowand, Milton Bradley, Mark Kotsay, Kevin Millar, Richard Hidalgo, Wily Mo Pena, Corey Patterson, Justin Morneau

I just remembered that I could move Dmitri to a generic OF spot and pick up anyone for DH. This league uses specific outfield spots, must have a LF, CF, and RF, that's why I can only drop Jacque Jones for another RF. I also have Austin Kearns on the DL and was planning to keep Jones for another week until Kearns gets back, hopefully mid-August.
Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'
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Postby George_Foreman » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:22 am

frankly, i'd be worried about holding on to your SB lead even with pierre! have the guys below you made moves recently to acquire speed guys? have you lost any base stealers recently? what would you put your odds of finishing ahead of those three with pierre on your team?

but the guys you named as possible acquisitoins don't seem like they'd be able to push you over that hump..

oh, and milton bradly is playing RF, so you could consider him for jones...

anyhow, i'd take morneau over young straight off, and kotsay is probably your best option for pierre, but again, i'm not sure if that's going to push you over the hump to gain those 6 points in rbi.
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:40 am

You're right about the steals thing. I think I'm going to drop 2 points there anyway, even with having Pierre.

SB
ME--65, 7 pts (9 SB over last 2 weeks)
PH7--64, 6 pts (12 SB over last 2 weeks)
Donkies--63, 5 pts (19 SB over last 2 weeks)
Power--62, 4 pts (4 SB over last 2 weeks)
Godfathers--53, 3 pts

Both guys just behind me have been stealing more than I have lately, even while I have Pierre, but the guy behind them hasn't been stealing much at all. I figure I'm going to drop 2 spots there with Pierre or not, so that's why I was looking at dropping him and trying to pick up some RBI points.

I can only do one move. I like Morneau, what do others think about him? Will Dmitri Young pick it up?

What about dropping Pierre, moving Young to OF, and picking up Morneau for DH?
Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'
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Postby Hbj79 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 3:33 am

I'd pick up Patterson for Pierre. He would still give you some sb's but should give you more power than Pierre. Also get Morneau. I wouldn't pick up Kotsay as his hot streak is over and he's been in a bit of a slump (he's kind of an emptry player anyway - + his OBA won't help you since your so far ahead).
An unemployed jester is nobody's fool.

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Postby slomo007 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:34 am

I would pick up Bradley, Rowand, or Morneau. I guess I'm probably the only Milton Bradley supporter here, but he's been playing really well for the last month or so, and he will still give you some steals. I am also a believer in Rowand, but I personally only play him vs. lefties, and this strategy is working out perfectly so far. Morneau is looking great also, and he might be the best bet for RBIs, but obviously you won't get steals from him so it's up to you whether he is worth the hit in that category.

Dropping Pierre is probably not a bad move, especially if you think you will lose those points even by keeping him. Just make sure you don't lose more than those 2 points somehow.
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