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Postby FatGuyWithAMullet » Sat Aug 07, 2004 9:53 pm

Tom Glavine could do it if he weren't playing for the Mets. Aside from him and perhaps Moose, no one will ever win 300 again.

It's hard to say never, because well..that's a hell of a long time, but the logistics of winning 300 are so deep and there are so many intangibles involved that the odds are stacked against any pitcher achieving it again. Maddux has been on the DL once in 19 years.

Rest assured people will come close. So many already have....but Hudson, Mulder, Sabathia, Wood, Prior...none of them will win 300.
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Postby irishdude103 » Sat Aug 07, 2004 9:58 pm

FatGuyWithAMullet wrote:Tom Glavine could do it if he weren't playing for the Mets. Aside from him and perhaps Moose, no one will ever win 300 again.

It's hard to say never, because well..that's a hell of a long time, but the logistics of winning 300 are so deep and there are so many intangibles involved that the odds are stacked against any pitcher achieving it again. Maddux has been on the DL once in 19 years.

Rest assured people will come close. So many already have....but Hudson, Mulder, Sabathia, Wood, Prior...none of them will win 300.

wow u actually posted something usefull
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sat Aug 07, 2004 10:08 pm

Glavine, Mulder, and Sabathia have a shot. Mulder and Sabathia, just need to stay off the DL. Hudson may have lost his chance after the extended DL trip this year.
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Postby pomplona's finest » Sat Aug 07, 2004 10:23 pm

wow u actually posted something usefull


true, I am pretty surprised 8-o

Too bad it is probably too late for him to redeem himself. :-D
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Postby irishdude103 » Sat Aug 07, 2004 10:38 pm

did he get "you know what"??
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Postby mikcou » Sat Aug 07, 2004 10:53 pm

If your talking about young guys Buerhle has a small chance with his durability and offense....
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Postby FatGuyWithAMullet » Sat Aug 07, 2004 11:10 pm

Mark Buerhle? Come on now.

Look at Pedro Martinez. Look at his utter dominance since '97..hell you could go back to '93-'94 too. He only has 177 wins. Think about that for a minute.

There's a reason why only 22 pitchers have won 300 folks.

But hell, if a guy can win 15+ games in 16+ straight seasons, or average 15 wins a season for 20 years...sure it'll happen again.
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Postby DK » Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:37 am

Pedro Martinez currently has 178 wins as of today. Assuming he gets five more wins this season (not a stretched idea by any means, I think he will have more) He will need 117 wins to get to 300.

IF Pedro pitches until he is 38, he will need to average ~20 wins over the next six years.

IF Pedro pitches until he is 40, he will need to average ~15 wins over the next eight years.

I can see Pedro averaging 15 wins over the next eight years. Pedro's got a good shot at 300.

Unit? Not a chance. He's 41, and would need to pitch well into his mid-forties, which I don't see him doing.

Mussina? If he gets his act together, then sure, he's got a chance.

I'd need to see a pitcher get at least 150 wins before we even mention 300 about them. So, CC, Prior, Hudson, you've got a while to go.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:58 am

Mark Mulder has been in the league for 5 seasons, and has 79 wins. He just turned 27 on the 5th. He is averaging about 15.8 a year. Hes won at least 15 games the past 4 seasons. So he has maybe 13 years left, and he would need to average 17 a year to get 300. He will probably get that this year, if not more. I think he has a real shot if he stays healthy.
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Postby FatGuyWithAMullet » Sun Aug 08, 2004 1:24 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:Mark Mulder has been in the league for 5 seasons, and has 79 wins. He just turned 27 on the 5th. He is averaging about 15.8 a year. Hes won at least 15 games the past 4 seasons. So he has maybe 13 years left, and he would need to average 17 a year to get 300. He will probably get that this year, if not more. I think he has a real shot if he stays healthy.


Yes, if he stays healthy. Which is why there are so many more intangibles than just the pure pitching aspect of the whole thing.

There have been so many pitchers with 79 wins at the age of 27. Millwood had 75, Pettitte had 81 and even after that he averaged 17 over the next 4 seasons and still only has 150, Greg Swindell had 72. I mean I could name about 100+ pitchers over the course of the game who have all had a better chance at 300 than Mulder and were on the same pace.
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