Apollo wrote:First of all, yet again the Cafe is the best site around--I never would have been the first to snatch Hermanson up otherwise.
Second, just by random reckoning, I would think a .500ish team would have the most save opportunities. They're pretty average, score about the same number of runs as the other team... so they have a lot of close games. And that's a lot of save opportunitites. After all, the D-backs just don't win, and the Yanks blow people out, so a nice middle-of-the-road team would come out on top?
Rivera has 38 saves. So much for the blowout theory. Remember that a three run lead is a save opportunity, so that allows for tons of save opportunities for most winning teams.
true you can only eliminate the really bad teams that dont win
Fact is, there's really no way to project save opportunities, except that really awful teams don't figure to get as many. Beyond that, it's a crap shoot.
I did some stat checking and came up with some interesting numbers. As far as save ops, San Francisco had 49 this year while Cleveland had 42. Not that different. However, SF has 29 saves while Cleveland has only 18. Shows how awful the Cleveland pen is! I also came up with some more interesting numbers on Wickman and Hermanson which I'll put in a new thread.
just quoting the sleeper section of the site. Even though it would be really nice to get herges off my team, if hermanson blows a few saves, he's back in the rotation. Keep in mind its only an experiment, he has to prove himself right away.
With Matt Herges suffering through a dismal July (2.79 WHIP, 10.61 ERA, 4 HR allowed in 12 games), many fantasy owners pounced on heir apparent Jason Christiansen. Yet while the lefty hasn’t given up a run since July 6, allowing just one hit in his ten appearances in that time, it now appears that San Francisco will give a different pitcher the chance to close: Dustin Hermanson.
Fantasy veterans might be wary, remembering the last time Hermanson received the opportunity to close out games. In 2000, he blew three saves in seven chances for Montreal, and found himself back in the rotation shortly thereafter. Hermanson’s manager at the time, incidentally, was none other than Felipe Alou…
So far this season, Hermanson had been used exclusively as a starter, compiling a 4-4 record with a 4.59 ERA over 18 starts in which he allowed opposing batters to hit for a .271 average. His K/BB rate is solid, however, at just over 2-to-1, and perhaps this opportunity will be just what the doctor ordered for a player who at one point of his career seemed destined for great things.
The jury is still out on whether or not this experiment will succeed, but with fantasy pennant races heading into the home stretch, Hermanson might be just the player you’ve been looking for to provide a push in the saves category. Just keep a close eye on his performance, and be prepared to react quickly should Alou change his mind.