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Heads up: Hermanson new Giants closer

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Postby fiz » Wed Aug 04, 2004 1:31 am

SoxFanPJ wrote:When I have a tough time deciding between pitchers I use two tie breakers.

1. Which Pitcher is on a better team? More likely to get wins or saves.

2. What league is the pitcher in? Favor NL over AL (except Colorado)


also, being on a better team doesnt necessarily mean you get more save opps (bad teams usually win by small margins) - teams like arizona are obviously exceptions...i'd like to see stats on that actually - the correlation between team winning percentage and save opps...

and as far as NL vs AL, i dont see the difference either - i can understand favoring an NL starter because of the pitcher having to bat, but aint no pitcher gonna bat in the 9th when its a save situation :*)
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Postby SoxFanPJ » Wed Aug 04, 2004 1:50 am

I wasn't refering to Nomar, I actually really like the trade, except for giving up Murton.

I wastalking about how Hermanson got hurt when he was on the Redsox.

As for why I favor better teams and NL teams. Its largely personal taste. I think you are better off with a closer on Giants then the Indians.

I go with what I feel is the better team, because the more games they have a lead in the more sav ops you will get, particularly if you have a good team with a mid-poor offense that will see closer games.

As for NL vs. AL, the DH is one issue as even though late in the game you are likely to see a PH forthe pitchers spot, overall the PH would be weaker then most DH's, as well as the fact that overall teams in the NL tend to play more small ball then teams in the AL, and are less likely to hammer a closer. IMHO.

OF course there are more exact ways to measure pitchers, K rate, whip,era, BAA, etc. but I like to go with my gut instincts and gamble a littleparticularly one last roster spot type pitchers.

Overall I think that given two pitchers of equivalent stuff and career stats I favor the guy in the NL based on the league.

Of course I am also a huge fan of young pitchers with high K rates, I was ableto draft Santana last year late and Oliver Perez late this year.

I am not saying that my way is the right way, its just how I do things.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:13 am

The only problem with your logic there is that good teams don't usually have more save opps than bad teams. More leads does not equal more save opps. Personally I'd rather see save opps occurring in the 9th or higher innings counted as a stat instead of save opps occurring in any inning. If a team has SP's that are always taken out after 6 innings, then they'll have a LOT of save opps, and a fair amount occurring in the 7th and 8th innings. Those shoudln't be a factor for picking closers. It would also help to see how MR's who become closers have fared in the closer role; those 4 BS's they got in middle relief shouldn't be a factor when considering their closer value. I guess (holds + saves) / (holds + svo) would be a good stat for MR's in that situation. Doesn't really help for calculating a team's 9th inning or later save opps though :-?
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Postby Apollo » Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:40 am

First of all, yet again the Cafe is the best site around--I never would have been the first to snatch Hermanson up otherwise.

Second, just by random reckoning, I would think a .500ish team would have the most save opportunities. They're pretty average, score about the same number of runs as the other team... so they have a lot of close games. And that's a lot of save opportunitites. After all, the D-backs just don't win, and the Yanks blow people out, so a nice middle-of-the-road team would come out on top?
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Postby thehat » Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:48 am

Apollo wrote:First of all, yet again the Cafe is the best site around--I never would have been the first to snatch Hermanson up otherwise.

Second, just by random reckoning, I would think a .500ish team would have the most save opportunities. They're pretty average, score about the same number of runs as the other team... so they have a lot of close games. And that's a lot of save opportunitites. After all, the D-backs just don't win, and the Yanks blow people out, so a nice middle-of-the-road team would come out on top?


Rivera has 38 saves. So much for the blowout theory. Remember that a three run lead is a save opportunity, so that allows for tons of save opportunities for most winning teams.

Fact is, there's really no way to project save opportunities, except that really awful teams don't figure to get as many. Beyond that, it's a crap shoot.
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Postby KolbSaves » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:25 am

Already dealt Hermanson to a team tight in the saves race for their 4th OF, Larry Walker.
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Postby Members Only Jackets » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:32 am

Are we jumping the gun a bit? Anyone look at his stats?

4.59ERA........ 1.39WHIP
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Postby thehat » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:37 am

Members Only Jackets wrote:Are we jumping the gun a bit? Anyone look at his stats?

4.59ERA........ 1.39WHIP


No question he's lousy. He's got more in common with the deposed closer Herges than just the first three letters of his last name. But if saves are at a premium for an owner, he's worth the small risk in hopes he can generate a little run.
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Postby HolyCow101 » Wed Aug 04, 2004 4:11 am

With Benitez on the DL till Saturday I picked up Danys Baez.

My current closer lineup is:

Troy Percival
Francisco Cordero
Shingo Takatsu
Baez
Benitez - DL

Should I drop Baez and pick up Hermanson?
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Postby shortsavage » Wed Aug 04, 2004 4:25 am

Members Only Jackets wrote:Are we jumping the gun a bit? Anyone look at his stats?

4.59ERA........ 1.39WHIP


People held onto Herges and his 5.73ish ERA/1.75ish WHIP :-B . If you need saves, you need saves.
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