Chicks dig the longball: let's talk HR potential...

[msaint]

I'm in a HR-only league along with my regular two leagues -- I know, I know, pretty "lowbrow" to play in a HR derby league, but it's low maintenance compared to my others, it's easy on the brain, and there's a great $650 first place payout -- and I wanted to discuss a few guys and get your thoughts on their potential this year:

Luis Gonzalez: Will never hit 57 again, but is 35 too much to hope for? Not much protection in that sorry D'backs lineup anymore, but he seems to be starting hot. My projection: 28-30. Yours?

Klesko: Ditto above re: lineup, and pitchers could avoid him. And back issues started the season....do you think he's a lock for his usual 28 HRs, or did nevin's injury leave him too exposed in that Pads lineup.

Soriano: Will he keep going and top 40, or will he have a "sophomore slump" and end up 30-35?

Thome: The man can rake, no matter where he's playing, no matter who's pitching, no matter what astrological sign the moon and sun are in....BUT, do you tink he's around 50 again or will he have a dropoff? Notoriously slow starter.

Choi: Cubbies 1B of the present/future, has 3 HRs already, seems to be hitting a groove which should keep Dusty "I like my players old and rickety" Baker from working Karros in too much against lefties. Is 25-30 too optimistic for Hee Seop?

Juan Gonzalez. Contract year + notoriously selfish dude + sick talent + seemingly healthy = big comeback year. Can he hit 35?

Chavez: Does he finally top 40 this year?

Chipper: Are injuries catching up to him? Is he a 40+ guy anymore, or is 30 more realistic?

Ken Harvey: Deeeeep sleeper, fulltime DH for KC. Big powerful dude, starting hot....can he make 25 vanish into the stands?

I know this was pretty long. Thanks for any input on as many of these guys as you can....

[jebatzel]

I think Soriano is going hit 30 to 35. don't think he is going to get 40 or more.

Nomar and A-rod are both going to hit more.

Choi: is probably going to hit 25 to 30 homeruns. looks like he is getting the played hit and he was coached good in Korea. May surprise you and hit more, but I won't bet on it.

Juan I think if he stays healthy can get you 30 to 35 homeruns.

hope that helps.

JB

[Gmogd]

gonzo 35? It's possible, but don't count on it. The dbacks are focused on small ball this year, and while he'll still be knocking them out, 35's looking more like a ceiling than an expectation.
Klesko 28? Not impossible, but a "lock", you ask? Between the back problems and the lack of protection, asking for his usual output is a bit much.

[KDOGG]

i would hardly call 30-35 hmrs for soriano a sophmore slump but i think he'll hit 40 ne ways !

[msaint]

[quote="KDOGG"]i would hardly call 30-35 hmrs for soriano a sophmore slump but i think he'll hit 40 ne ways ![/quote]

I hear ya....30-35 is a very nice season for anyone, but he unfortunately set the bar pretty high last season, so any dropoff would be noticeable. Put it this way, as a Soriano owner I'd be very disappointed with 30. 35-40 would be about right....40+ would be suh-weeeeet

Thanks for all the replies so far...incidentally, I have all but Chavez and Chipper on my team. Other slow-starting guys I'm thinking of going after: Berkman, Konerko, Magglio, Burrell, Thomas, Piazza. They might be had relatively cheaply right now....

[jockstrap]

pat burrell: can hit 30

Jose Cruz JR: i dont think this start is a fluke. this guy can hit the ball far and hard.

look for Berkman to come back and hit his usuall 45-48

Delgado: there has been no talk on this guy so far. i have him on my team. he just hit a 3 run shot a couple minutes ago for his 5th of the season.....watch out!

Posada:..................................

Vladdy: of course. you heard all about him.




hope this helps a little at least....JP

[jockstrap]

pat burrell: can hit 30

Jose Cruz JR: i dont think this start is a fluke. this guy can hit the ball far and hard.

look for Berkman to come back and hit his usuall 45-48

Delgado: there has been no talk on this guy so far. i have him on my team. he just hit a 3 run shot a couple minutes ago for his 5th of the season.....watch out!

Posada:..................................

Vladdy: of course. you heard all about him.




hope this helps a little at least....JS

[Guest]

Thanks for the replies, guys.

Re: Burrell, I don't own him but want to trade for him. Did you mean to type "he can hit 40"? Reason I ask is he's coming off a 37 HR season, so obviously he can hit 30.

yes, Jorge seems to have found a consistent power stroke. and this is of course the first year I haven't owned him.

"Jurassic Carl" Everett is a mystery...I have him on my bench and he seems to be crushing the ball in an attempt to stay in the lineup once Mench/Perry get back. You think he keeps it up and approaches 30 HRs?

[Pogotheostrich]

Berkman's usual is 45-48 HR? His career high is 42.
I like Berkman but he is off to a slow start. Expect 35-40.

If you are looking for power I'd go after Burrel. I think 30 might be the low end.

I also see 30 for Chipper being the high end. He had 26 last year and is already hurting with a bad thumb and sore groin.

[msaint]

Yeah, I was bummed when I passed on Burrell for Andruw Jones (whom I've since traded in a package for Soriano and Jose Hernandez, which I think I won out on...Jose could hit 30 in Coors). I'm trying to put something together with the Burrell owner. With Thome there to take some of the pressure off him I think he could easily hit 40+. I've offered him Klesko and Edgar Martinez, hoping I can convince him that Klesko is a lock for 28 again and Edgar WON'T get hurt and hit 24 per usual.

Agree on Chipper. I think his 35-40+ days are long behind him.