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What's behind the production of SBs?

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What's behind the production of SBs?

Postby benjapage » Wed Jul 21, 2004 11:54 pm

i noticed that it had been a while since matt lawton had stolen a base. i began looking for similar droughts earlier in the season, and stumbled upon a period of games from the 12th-18th of may when he stole 6 bases.

after that period, he was more or less 10 games between stolen bases.

so, what gives? what makes someone like ichiro steal 4 bases in one night after 10 games of nothing? even podsednik has gone through some dry spells...

but my real question is this: barring injury, is there a way to surmise when one of these guys is about to get hot/cold in the SB department?

b
yeah, yes...
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Jul 21, 2004 11:57 pm

If they're playing a team with a bad catcher, or facing a pitcher who is prone to allowing steals, you can go by that. Otherwise... it's a craps shoot.
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Postby warrick95 » Thu Jul 22, 2004 12:00 am

Opposing catcher...(Victor Martinez is easy to steal on, for example)...I think this may be the best way to guess for people who aren't given their bucks to steal, like Pierre or Crawford.

Tempo of the offense...(if you're hitting the cover off the ball, you don't need to jump start the offense with stolen bases)

The player's actual level of play at the time, matters as well. If he's not getting on as consistently, he won't get that many chances to steal.

Basically, stolen bases are a gimme...it's hard as hell to predict them, even during the preseason. You never know when a manager will give the green light and when he'll rescind that.
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Postby Rico The Retard » Thu Jul 22, 2004 12:02 am

i can tell if the runner circumstanceiously fractures his legatory tendons he is no longer competibale to reguratoring a base........ i no have no clue what i just said but if the runner is hurt or on DL he wont steal as many bases i know that
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Postby Tavish » Thu Jul 22, 2004 12:07 am

The player's actual level of play at the time, matters as well. If he's not getting on as consistently, he won't get that many chances to steal.


Thats the biggest thing IMO. It usually boils down to the same as picking when a power hitter will go on tear. When a basestealer is getting walks and hits, his steals will be there.
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Postby RynMan » Thu Jul 22, 2004 12:09 am

Rico The Retard wrote:i can tell if the runner circumstanceiously fractures his legatory tendons he is no longer competibale to reguratoring a base........ i no have no clue what i just said but if the runner is hurt or on DL he wont steal as many bases i know that


ROFL.
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Postby warrick95 » Thu Jul 22, 2004 12:15 am

RynMan wrote:
Rico The Retard wrote:i can tell if the runner circumstanceiously fractures his legatory tendons he is no longer competibale to reguratoring a base........ i no have no clue what i just said but if the runner is hurt or on DL he wont steal as many bases i know that


ROFL.


When you've got nothing reasonable to say, just say something sophisticated and complex enough that it sounds somewhat feasible so that others think you're a complete genius. ;-D
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