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Postby blankman » Wed Jul 21, 2004 12:04 am

Thats very interesting. Thanks for the post josh ;-D
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Postby Strasil42 » Wed Jul 21, 2004 12:34 am

He is the Shac of baseball


its spelled shaq. :-)
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Postby joshheines » Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:18 am

thehat wrote:Vlad in the AL, though I actually think Pudge has been the true MVP. Again, you really need to factor in defense a bit...while Victor Martinez is a monster offensively, he is HORRID behind the plate. There is no way he as valuable as Pudge as far as catchers go, and it's not even remotely close at this point.


Again, everyone needs to look before they leap. V-Mart has not been horrid behind the plate by any stretch of the imagination. Nor has Pudge been very good.

V-Marts fielding pct is .991. Pudge is at .988.

Victor has thrown out 27% of all runners trying to steal. Pudge has thrown out 21%. The day's of Pudge throwing out 50%+ of base stealers is long gone.

Victor's CERA (Catcher's ERA when he is behind the plate) is 4.95. Pudge's is 4.88.

Victor has helped develop Westbrook, Sabathia, and Cliff Lee. At the very least he hasn't hurt them as they all have ERA's under 4.00. They don't have a real 4th or 5th starter as Jason Davis has been awful.

Meanwhile, Pudge was supposed to dramatically improve the Tigers young rotation, right? Last year Bonderman's had 5.57 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. This year he has a 5.97 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Maroth had 5.73 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. This year he has a 4.65 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Last year Jason Johnson's ERA was 4.19, this year he's at 4.18. Point being, Pudge hasn't improved the Tigers pitching. He also isn't throwing baserunners out.

Pudge is now a, get ready, average defensive catcher. That's all he is. I'm not saying Victor is great. No, he's been average and he certainly hasn't been HORRID.

Then to me, it boils down to offensive numbers.
Victor's got 55 runs, 25 2b, 17 HR, 75 RBI, .306 AVG, .378 OBP, .558 SLG, .936 OPS.
Pudge's got 47 runs, 24 2b, 12 HR, 62 RBI, .358 AVG, .399 OBP, .543 SLG, .943 OPS.

Pudge's got one clear advantage and that's AVG. Victor trumps him in runs, HR, and RBIs. OPS is too close for it to make a statistical difference.


Both offenses are pretty similar. The Indians have scored 526 runs. The Tigers have scored 487 runs. The 39 run difference would translate to about .4 runs per game. Maybe it would boost Pudge's numbers, but it would be ever so slightly.

Therefore, to me, Victor Martinez is just as legitimate an MVP choice as Pudge.
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Postby gypsyspot » Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:24 am

I'd give it to Rolen and Pudge. Defense as well as offense needs to be considered. Also the Giants might not even make the playoffs, hurting Bonds' case.
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Postby Ender » Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:43 am

I'd say IRod in the AL, he has totally transformed that team.


As for the NL, your list is good but it needs to at least include Sheets in the honorable mention category, his season is every bit as good as Schmidt's(realistically its slightly better) outside of W's and the fact he's a few behind in that area is not his fault. On top of that he's doing it in a big time hitters park rather than a big time pitching park.
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Postby joshheines » Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:56 am

I really appreciate everyone's input and it's interesting to see where I stand on some topics, but if there's anything I teach you guys in this post it will be LOOK before you SPEAK.

While it is true that SBC Park is a terrible ball park for hitters to hit HR, it is NOT TRUE that SBC Park is a pitchers park. It is actually quite neutral. Meanwhile, Miller park is very slightly a pitcher's park for both runs and HR.

For the record, Sheets is better at home than on the road. And Schmidt is better on the road than he is at home.

And Sheets should not receive consideration in my opinion because of his record, 9-6 on a .500+ team for someone with his numbers doesn't = MVP to me. Schmidt is 12-2 with the same numbers, more or less, as Sheets. Sheets is very good, but wins and losses count big time here.

See: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
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Postby The Jury » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:09 am

sfgfan4life wrote:I am probably one of the few who doesn't think Rolen or Pujols should be the MVP. Why? Well because if you take one of them out of the lineup, you still have another MVP to make up for the loss. And There lineup would still be better, without one out of the two of them in it, then a lot of lineups in baseball. I think Bonds or Schmidt shoud be it. I admit that I am a bit biased, but if you take Bonds or Schmidt out of the lineup or rotation, the Giants would be either in last place or second to last place. If you take Pujols, Rolen, or even Thome out of there lineups you still have a decent team at least. In the cardinals case, you you probably still would have a playoff caliber team. In my opinion, Schmidt and Bonds are more valuable to there team then Pujols or Rolen.

I'm guessing a lot of you will disagree, so don't bash me too much. :-D


I agree with your thinking for the most part, but I don't think that Bonds should be MVP, even though he is considered for it every year. He is too good for his own good - that is, he gets walked too much to really help is team. Even with his insane OBP, it doesn't really benefit the team since they have no one to drive him or anyone else in for the number of times he's on. They would have a lot more runs if he got to hit like everyone else. I'd give Schmidty some consideration for MVP.

But I have the frontrunners for MVP thus far being Vlad or Pudge in the AL, and Thome or maybe Beltre in the NL.
[quote:4fef447375="Geek"]The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.[/quote]
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Postby The Jury » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:26 am

Oh yeah, why was A-Rod the MVP last year? This still boggles my mind :-?

With or without A-Rod the Rangers were brutal so how was he valuable?
[quote:4fef447375="Geek"]The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.[/quote]
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Postby Ender » Wed Jul 21, 2004 10:43 am

While it is true that SBC Park is a terrible ball park for hitters to hit HR, it is NOT TRUE that SBC Park is a pitchers park. It is actually quite neutral. Meanwhile, Miller park is very slightly a pitcher's park for both runs and HR.


Sorry but that link is just a terrible way to judge ballparks. The brewers are a strong pitching weak hitting team. Of course their park is going to produce better pitching numbers than hitting numbers. As for the W's, its a matter of opinion. To me W's are the least important way to judge a pitcher, its almost completely out of their hands.
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Postby DK » Wed Jul 21, 2004 12:09 pm

The Jury wrote:Oh yeah, why was A-Rod the MVP last year? This still boggles my mind :-?

With or without A-Rod the Rangers were brutal so how was he valuable?


In my opinion, the voters voted him as the MVP because of his performance over the last 3 seasons, because he'd been shafted as the MVP for the first two.

joshheines wrote:OK, time to use the thing between your ears called your brain. Think outside the box. Why do we think OPS is the end all be all of statistics? Because we're told so. What does Crasnick say? Bonds has forced us to redefine our image of an MVP. With Bonds you can't focus solely on OPS.

Why should we believe Crasnick? Because you told us so? Your own argument cancels out this idea. OPS has been proven to correctly define the line between a good and bad player. Actually, I think OBP should reflect twice in OPS counting, because a point of OBP is worth more than a point of SLG. Crasnick, on the other hand, has proven he knows how to put words in a certain order. You can trust whichever one you want to, I'm going with the one that reflects in the stat sheet.

Bonds has had approximately 110 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. He's only got 26 RBIs in the 110 plate appearances. Why? Because he's walked/been walked 71 times. If the guy behind you stinks, how does that help your team more than a hit?

Well, when you think about it, Bonds has (as of today's ESPN splits) 41 AB, 50 R, 5 HR, 27 RBI, and 71 walks. Pujols has 81 AB, 58 R, 7 HR, 43 RBI, and 23 BB. You (roughly) double Bonds' at-bats to normalize the AB counts, and the stats aren't even close (the only remotely close one is RBI, and that's because of each team's offense- Again, the Giants are horrid without the one known as Bonds.

But Josh, you are neglecting that Bonds has scored 50 times and has an OPS of 1.545 with runners in scoring position? No, I'm not. The number of runs he contributes to his team is not as great as what Pujols does.

Pujols actually has had less opportunities with runners in scoring position than Bonds has had (approximately 103 plate appearances). In those plate appearances, Pujols has an OPS of 1.080. However, he has 42 RBI's in those appearances. And he also has 57 runs scored.

Yeah, because he hasn't been walked as much. If you put Bonds in the Cardinals' offense, his Runs Scored number and RBI number would go up probably 1.5-2 times as much as it is now. Are you trying to lower Bonds' status because pitchers are scared to death of him?

Why is Bonds' OPS so inflated? Because with an open base, his opponents will walk him everytime with a man on base (read on 2b, 3b, or both 2b and 3b). Let's take a look at those numbers below.

With runners on 2b: 43 PA (Plate appearances), 3 hits, 34 walks, 8 runs, and 4 RBIs. 1.526 OPS.

With runners on 3b: 14 PA, 1 hit, 12 walks, 2 runs, 2 RBIs. 2.929 OPS.

I'm guessing, fairly safely, that all of these walks are intentional or he is completely pitched around. As you can see, he doesn't contribute much to his team in these situations. 57 PA, 10 runs and 6 RBIs. So who cares about his OPS.

Again, look at the AB numbers. The PA are inflated because he's been walked so much. He's only gotten pitched to in 11 of those PA. You really think that out of 57 PA, because he's been walked so much, he's going to get a high amount of hits? Think of it this way: In 11 AB, Bonds has had 4 hits, 10 runs, and 6 RBI, with 2 HR and 2 strikeouts compared to 46 walks. Again, you are trying to deflate Bonds' argument because pitchers are scared to death of what he can do. That should reflect in a positive manner, rather than a negative one. 11 AB is far too little of a sample size to consider it a detriment on ANYONE, Pujols, Bonds, or Wilton Guerrero.

Barry's been on base 212 times this year. That's staggering. But the bottom line is who cares when you aren't PRODUCING any runs. For the number of times he's been on base he should be scoring more than 70 runs. That's what I mean by if you are going to call him the MVP, he should have 90-100 runs right now to off-set his lack of RBIs. That's what Crasnick was talking about when he said Bonds has forced us to redefine our notions of what an MVP is.

You, again, are faulting Bonds because of the offense around him. He can't control anything that happens behind him in his line-up, so theoretically he can only count on 24 runs for sure (the ones he personally created for himself- HR). Because his offense around him can't do anything by itself, you fault Bonds? Again, that's the "team" argument. And the MVP doesn't go to the best team[i], it goes to the best [i]player. And Bonds is clearly the better one.


Another statistic commonly used in rating players by sabermetricians are Win Shares. By the end of the season, if you have 20 win shares, you're generally known as a very good player. If you have 30 win shares, you're probably going to be in the MVP voting somewhere, sometimes at the top. Bonds, through 7/5/04, has 27 win shares on the season. Which means that if he ended the season now, he'd still be near an MVP-type player. Second is Rolen with 24 Win shares, but he has more due to his fielding prowess. Strictly as a hitter, here are the top 3 NL-Rankings for win shares as of 7/05:

1.Bonds- 26.5
2.Rolen- 20.1
3.Abreu- 19.6

Pujols is sixth, with 16.3.

Another stat, a wonderful little stat known as Runs Created, which correctly rates a player as himself only, without circumstancial stats such as Runs or RBI which are team-dependent:

Bonds: 102 RC
Pujols: 75 RC

According to analysis, his teammate (Scott Rolen) has actually been more productive than he, although I haven't calculated Rolen's RC numbers. I should go do that now, as a matter of fact:

Rolen: 77 RC

My analysis stays clear. Scott Rolen has actually been more productive than his own teammate, and Bonds is still miles ahead of both of them. Now, I'm not knocking Albert Pujols. Pujols is a great player, and should be up there in the voting somewhere. But saying he's in the same league as Bonds is laughable and should easily be dismissed. Bonds is in a league of his own.
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