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MVPs so far

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MVPs so far

Postby joshheines » Tue Jul 20, 2004 10:43 pm

It's been a while since we've gotten a fresh perspective on who's the AL and NL MVPs thus far. Figured we should do some updating.

AL

1. Vlad
2. Manny
3. Hank Blalock
4. David Ortiz
5. Ivan Rodriguez

Honorable Mention goes to: Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada, Mark Mulder, Mariano Rivera and Johan Santana.

Probably slightly unpopular. I know everyone wants Pudge to take the MVP, but he can't. Fact is I would consider, at this point, voting for Victor Martinez as being just as valuable. With all the injuries the Angels have sustained and the numbers Vlad has put up, I think it's hard/impossible to not have him be the MVP, right now. Manny's numbers are sick and he and Ortiz both carried the BoSox through some tough times. Manny's numbers are just a little better though. And Hank the Tank should get a ton of credit: 61 runs, 24 HR, 70 RBI, .300 AVG and the Rangers are having a great season.

NL

1. Albert Pujols
2. Scott Rolen
3. Jason Schmidt
4. Barry Bonds
5. Jim Thome

Honorable Mention to: Adrian Beltre, Miguel Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Eric Gagne

Probably more unpopular. Bottom line is that chicks dig the long ball. I'd probably vote for Abreu over Thome, but Thome leads the league in HR. Pujols over Rolen . . . am I insane? No, you are. 83 runs, 27 HR, 70 RBI, .320 AVG. Who does he have batting in front of him? Womack and Renteria? Neither one has been very good this year. Meanwhile, Scott Rolen has the benefit of hitting with Pujols on base all the time. And it's not like they can pitch around him unless they want to have Jim Edmonds up with two on. I'll take Pujols over Rolen's 62 runs, 20 HR, 86 RBI, and .335 AVG. As for Barry, I hate him. But the writers love to vote for him. I guess it's tough to argue with 24 HR and a .371 AVG and the .628 OBP. That's not OPS, that really is OBP. Jason Schmidt has been lights out all year on a otherwise weak team.
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Postby sfgfan4life » Tue Jul 20, 2004 10:56 pm

I am probably one of the few who doesn't think Rolen or Pujols should be the MVP. Why? Well because if you take one of them out of the lineup, you still have another MVP to make up for the loss. And There lineup would still be better, without one out of the two of them in it, then a lot of lineups in baseball. I think Bonds or Schmidt shoud be it. I admit that I am a bit biased, but if you take Bonds or Schmidt out of the lineup or rotation, the Giants would be either in last place or second to last place. If you take Pujols, Rolen, or even Thome out of there lineups you still have a decent team at least. In the cardinals case, you you probably still would have a playoff caliber team. In my opinion, Schmidt and Bonds are more valuable to there team then Pujols or Rolen.

I'm guessing a lot of you will disagree, so don't bash me too much. :-D
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Postby beltrans_boy » Tue Jul 20, 2004 10:59 pm

sfgfan4life wrote:I am probably one of the few who doesn't think Rolen or Pujols should be the MVP. Why? Well because if you take one of them out of the lineup, you still have another MVP to make up for the loss. And There lineup would still be better, without one out of the two of them in it, then a lot of lineups in baseball. I think Bonds or Schmidt shoud be it. I admit that I am a bit biased, but if you take Bonds or Schmidt out of the lineup or rotation, the Giants would be either in last place or second to last place. If you take Pujols, Rolen, or even Thome out of there lineups you still have a decent team at least. In the cardinals case, you you probably still would have a playoff caliber team. In my opinion, Schmidt and Bonds are more valuable to there team then Pujols or Rolen.

I'm guessing a lot of you will disagree, so don't bash me too much. :-D


Your logic is flawed. You say that if you take 1 MVP out of the Cardinals lineup, you've got another one there to take his place. Yet, you argue that there are 2 MVPs on the Giants. Wouldn't the same logic be applied to them, as well?

I agree, Bonds is the MVP of the NL. Hands down. Without Bonds, the Giants become the Arizona Diamondbacks. I was just pointing out the flaw in your thinking.

Matt Herges for MVP of the Dodgers!
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Postby thehat » Tue Jul 20, 2004 11:00 pm

Rolen in the NL. Pujols is ridiculous, but Rolen's extraordinary defense must be factored in.

Vlad in the AL, though I actually think Pudge has been the true MVP. Again, you really need to factor in defense a bit...while Victor Martinez is a monster offensively, he is HORRID behind the plate. There is no way he as valuable as Pudge as far as catchers go, and it's not even remotely close at this point.
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Postby sfgfan4life » Tue Jul 20, 2004 11:08 pm

The difference with the Giants two MVP canidates and the Cardinals is that if one of the two cardinals gets taken away they still have the offense to pick up the slack. If you take away one of the two Giants you either have a very weak roation or a very weak lineup. With the Cardinals, they would still have a very solid lineup and nothing happens to there pitching. Last time I checked, Barry can't pitch and Schmidt isn't that great of a hitter so losing one of them hurts the Giants a lot more than losing Pujols or Rolen hurts the Cardinals. I feel that makes the two situations different.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Tue Jul 20, 2004 11:17 pm

sfgfan4life wrote:The difference with the Giants two MVP canidates and the Cardinals is that if one of the two cardinals gets taken away they still have the offense to pick up the slack. If you take away one of the two Giants you either have a very weak roation or a very weak lineup. With the Cardinals, they would still have a very solid lineup and nothing happens to there pitching. Last time I checked, Barry can't pitch and Schmidt isn't that great of a hitter so losing one of them hurts the Giants a lot more than losing Pujols or Rolen hurts the Cardinals. I feel that makes the two situations different.


I agree with you, and I think that Bonds should win the MVP every year he gets walked more than 175 times. He is the Shac of baseball. His sheer dominance changes the game, and even if he doesnt get the stats, it is because pitchers and managers are so afraid of what he WOULD do if given the chance, that they walk him, just as Shac is fouled to keep his scoring totals down. The only flaw in my comparison is that Bonds himself does not have a weakness that teams can exploit, while Shac cant shoot free throws.
I think that Schmidt should win the Cy Young this year. He has been absolutely lights out. 12 straight overpowering wins? Thats insane, whether you value wins or not. But dont say that Schmidt cant hit. Remember, he hit a HR a month or two or go! :-D
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Postby joshheines » Tue Jul 20, 2004 11:23 pm

I don't think Bonds is the MVP at all. I don't have ESPN Insider access, but there is a snipit from Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com that is very enlightening on this topic.

"Statistically, Bonds is on a different level than every other play in baseball. No Player has ever been deemed so good, opponents simply refuse to pitch to him as a matter of course. But you wonder how far it goes. Theoretically, if National League managers walked Bonds every time up and he had an OBP of 1.000, would he still be the most valuable player in the league? Maybe, but he's forcing all of us to redefine the standard perception of what constitutes an MVP."

That makes perfect sense. There is a reason pitchers pitch around him. He has gotten on base 63% of the time. So what. If your team can't drive you in you being on base is worthless. Yes he is 4th in the NL in runs scored, but considering how many times he's been on base that is very poor. For him to truly be the MVP, his walking/OBP would have to justly compensate his lack of true at bats and opportunities to drive batters in (only 51 RBIs this year). He would need to be scoring runs at a much higher clip.

Secondly, to say that without either Rolen or Pujols the Cards would be as dominating is completely faulty. If they remove either player from their line-up I would guess that, on average, they will score about 1-2 runs less per game (according to runs created/27 outs). How many wins/losses does that translate too? Bunches and bunches.

Finally, the first rule of the MVP is this: Pitchers have their own award. Unless a pitcher completely dominates to the tune of 300+ strikeouts with a 2.00ish ERA and .80 WHIP, I'm not voting for him for 1st place in the MVP race. I'll vote for him to be in 3rd place to give him some credit and make him feel good, but Rolen and Pujols go out every day and contribute every day.

I think the Rolen Defense argument is a very good one that i neglected. However, I still think my vote goes to Pujols, but barely.
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Postby Rico The Retard » Tue Jul 20, 2004 11:30 pm

Vlad in the AL and Rolen in the NL and u forgot to mention lyle overbay in your nl honorable mention the guy is awesome maybe not the greatest fantasy wise but he is awesome
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Tue Jul 20, 2004 11:35 pm

"Statistically, Bonds is on a different level than every other play in baseball. No Player has ever been deemed so good, opponents simply refuse to pitch to him as a matter of course. But you wonder how far it goes. Theoretically, if National League managers walked Bonds every time up and he had an OBP of 1.000, would he still be the most valuable player in the league? Maybe, but he's forcing all of us to redefine the standard perception of what constitutes an MVP."

That makes perfect sense. There is a reason pitchers pitch around him. He has gotten on base 63% of the time. So what. If your team can't drive you in you being on base is worthless. Yes he is 4th in the NL in runs scored, but considering how many times he's been on base that is very poor. For him to truly be the MVP, his walking/OBP would have to justly compensate his lack of true at bats and opportunities to drive batters in (only 51 RBIs this year). He would need to be scoring runs at a much higher clip.


What? You just made no sense! How can the crappiness of the rest of the Giant's offense be held against Bonds? How can you say that he should be scoring more runs? As a Giants fan, I agree; he should be scoring runs. But that is not his responsibility! That the responsiblity of the likes of Alfonzo and Grissom. Later in your argument, you refer to runs created. Bonds' runs created per 27 outs this year is around 21, a full 11 runs more than the next highest, Todd Helton. If that doesnt spell MVP, I dont know what does.

stat source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/bat ... =a&pos=all
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Postby joshheines » Tue Jul 20, 2004 11:55 pm

OK, time to use the thing between your ears called your brain. Think outside the box. Why do we think OPS is the end all be all of statistics? Because we're told so. What does Crasnick say? Bonds has forced us to redefine our image of an MVP. With Bonds you can't focus solely on OPS.

Bonds has had approximately 110 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. He's only got 26 RBIs in the 110 plate appearances. Why? Because he's walked/been walked 71 times. If the guy behind you stinks, how does that help your team more than a hit?

But Josh, you are neglecting that Bonds has scored 50 times and has an OPS of 1.545 with runners in scoring position? No, I'm not. The number of runs he contributes to his team is not as great as what Pujols does.

Pujols actually has had less opportunities with runners in scoring position than Bonds has had (approximately 103 plate appearances). In those plate appearances, Pujols has an OPS of 1.080. However, he has 42 RBI's in those appearances. And he also has 57 runs scored.

Why is Bonds' OPS so inflated? Because with an open base, his opponents will walk him everytime with a man on base (read on 2b, 3b, or both 2b and 3b). Let's take a look at those numbers below.

With runners on 2b: 43 PA (Plate appearances), 3 hits, 34 walks, 8 runs, and 4 RBIs. 1.526 OPS.

With runners on 3b: 14 PA, 1 hit, 12 walks, 2 runs, 2 RBIs. 2.929 OPS.

I'm guessing, fairly safely, that all of these walks are intentional or he is completely pitched around. As you can see, he doesn't contribute much to his team in these situations. 57 PA, 10 runs and 6 RBIs. So who cares about his OPS.

Barry's been on base 212 times this year. That's staggering. But the bottom line is who cares when you aren't PRODUCING any runs. For the number of times he's been on base he should be scoring more than 70 runs. That's what I mean by if you are going to call him the MVP, he should have 90-100 runs right now to off-set his lack of RBIs. That's what Crasnick was talking about when he said Bonds has forced us to redefine our notions of what an MVP is.
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