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Importance of K/BB ratio

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Importance of K/BB ratio

Postby titanut » Mon Apr 14, 2003 7:48 pm

Amnorix, thanks for the informative post below. OK, what is a good
ratio ? I picked up Casey Fossum off waivers yesterday, his ratio for
this year is 3:1 and last year was 3.7:1 , does that mean I may
have made a good pickup(dropped H Ramirez]
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Postby Amnorix » Tue Apr 15, 2003 10:10 am

For starters, anything above a 4.00 is pretty damn good, and anything above a 3.00 is fairly solid. Closers tend to have a somewhat better K/BB ratio.

Think of a pitcher's K/BB ratio as the inverse of a hitter's walk and strikeout numbers. In both cases, it reveals an ability to see (or find) the strike zone and work it to your advantage.

Of course, K/BB isn't the be-all and end-all of analyzing a pitcher. While all of us Red Sox fans hope Fossum comes around, there's just ignoring his 7+ ERA so far this year.

I think Fossum does have more upside than H Ramirez, but he isn't anyone I would throw out there right now. If you have the room and can leave Fossum on your bench to see if he comes around, that's not unreasonable. There might be someone else who's actually doing reasonably well that you might want instead of Fossum, however.
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Apr 15, 2003 6:38 pm

2-1 is the minimum you want. 3-1 is good. Nolan Ryan as a example had a 2-1 ratio.
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Postby kcs261 » Tue Apr 15, 2003 6:59 pm

As an aside, look at the K/BB ratio when evaluating hitters. That's a really good way to judge a player's plate discipline.
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Postby titanut » Tue Apr 15, 2003 9:45 pm

Thanks guys- good info. BTW, I sat Casey tonight, trying to conserve innings anyway, but he looked good. Can't say the
same for the Bosox "losers by committe approach".
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Postby sinicalypse » Wed Apr 16, 2003 4:48 am

for his young career, mark prior is a 4.095:1 K/BB ratio.

for his old career, randy johnson is a 3.046:1 K/BB ratio.

for his getting old career, pedro martinez is a 4.369:1 K/BB ratio.

and yeah, i still must vindicate myself, i got laughed at twice for drafting prior in the third round. shrug. i keep telling people that this kid is a top tier pitcher. even before researching this, i had prior up there with pedro as one of the best pitchers in baseball, bar none.

hasta.
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Postby Amnorix » Wed Apr 16, 2003 8:42 am

My only caveat on the Prior talent is that you won't be feeling so good if Prior blows out his arm because his manager keeps making him throw 100+ pitches.

But I'm with you. I have Prior in one of my leagues as well, so I also hope he stays healthy.
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Postby sinicalypse » Wed Apr 16, 2003 12:22 pm

well, i have faith in both the cubs organization and mark himself to make sure that doesnt happen. mark's pitching for that first big contract in a few years, and the cubs should realize there's no way that they're letting this kid go... basically, he's the anti-maddux as they'll want to keep him during his prime and for 10-15 years.

maddux wasn't even this good at the start of his career, pretty scary, eh?
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Postby Amnorix » Wed Apr 16, 2003 12:24 pm

Don't anoint him the next Koufax just yet. Everything so far has been very impressive, but he has about 175 more wins to go before he's Hall of Fame eligible. :-D
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Postby Mordraken » Wed Apr 16, 2003 1:57 pm

While K:BB is a good measurement, you have to combine it with WHIP. There are those pitchers who will strike out 2 for every walk, but still give up 2 hits per inning.

This is how I do it:

1) Look for pitchers with a low WHIP. If it's a starter and they have a low WHIP and a high ERA, don't worry about it.. they're the victim of bad luck (unless they have a very high HR : IP ratio).

2) Of those with a good WHIP (Starters <1.20 and Relievers <1.10), check out their K:BB to figure out which ones are the better ones.

3) After that, check out their K/9 and Innings per Start. Make sure they're not throwing too many innings (or pitches) in concecutive starts (like Matt Morris last year). For relievers, check out their appearences/ week... look for guys that see the field a lot.

Basically it's WHIP, then K:BB then K:9, and I look at ERA last. If you see a guy (e.g. a starter) with a very high ERA after 5 starts (say 7.00+) but a WHIP in the 1.05 range and a K:BB of 3:1, he'd be a great guy to target for a trade, since this is a guy who will probably get better.

Just my oppinion, and remember I'm the guy who drafted Freddy Garcia...
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