Best middle reliever?

[NY1b23]

This is a normal 5x5 league. Holds don't count. I'm just looking for the best middle reliever for K's, a couple wins, great ERA and WHIP from here out.

I was considering Mota, Ryan, Otsuka and Madson.

Rincon, F-Rod, and Shields are not available.

[Mustangs989]

You didn't mention Gordon, is he available? If he is grab him. But out of the players you gave me though I'd rank them
Mota
Otsuka
Ryan
Madson

[thetongueofire]

one man: Guillermo Mota.

Frankie doesnt count cos he really is better than their frikkin closer.

[NY1b23]

Just for argument's sake - do you really think Mota will keep up the wins? That would give him 15 for the year.

Wouldn''t a guy with good stats but without the wins be a better choice at this point - because of the law of averages?

I thought of Gordon, and he's available, but he's unlikely to get many wins. He comes in with the lead almost every single time he pitches, since the Yankees are ahead so much....

[Super GM]

Believe it or not, this guy has been pretty good this year:

[Chopper]

Wouldn''t a guy with good stats but without the wins be a better choice at this point - because of the law of averages?

Sounds like a bit of Gamblers' Fallacy. Hard to ask law of averages to even out future events because of past events. More than likely, past success in non-random events should predict continued success.

[perlick29]

You didn't mention Gordon, is he available? If he is grab him. But out of the players you gave me though I'd rank them
Mota
Otsuka
Ryan
Madson

good order.

Also consider Luis Vizcaino as a WW pick up. His numbers, excluding one game ahev been terrific lately.

[irishdude103]

yeah i woudl either go with Gordan or Mota either is a good choice in my opioion

[thetongueofire]

yep, what you refer to there is quite the 'law of averages" but something more like a reference to the law of large numbers.

anyways, i hevent been playing fantasyball for two long but ive found out that trying to predict relievers wins, especially over a relatively short period of time is not that resourceful. even harder than predicting sterters wins which is a somewhat smaller crapshoot. notice its called the law of LARGE numbers, and obviously the sample sizes with relievers arent even remotely close to being "large". with relievers theres even more random crap going on than SP.

much easier* to try to predict their actual performance.

now that Gordon's in the mix, id say its a throwup between him and Mota. Gordon's been unhittable and Mota hasnt shown control comparable to last year which slightly worries me but he should be fine. hes thrown a ton of innings in the past 1.5 years. id give Gordon a slight edge for this year from now on.

*"easier" here is very relative.

[thetongueofire]

i dont too much and i dont wanna diss our fav sportcenter anchors or anything but whenever a sportscaster says anything 'bout streaks "breaking out of slumps" etc. theres a pretty decent chance hes not very accurate. There are many popular misconceptions about statistics in sports... streaks and slumps and the law of averages are all real good examples. pretty relative and arbritary and once in a while really silly and messed up.