Projected Wins Formula

[joshparrish]

ok i know there is a projected win type of formula for major league baseball that is:

runs scored squared divided by runs scored squared plus runs allowed squared. then multiply that number by 162 to get projected wins.

but since you only have to win one catagory in major league baseball (runs) it makes is a kinda easy formula. is there or has anyone thought of developing one for like a typical 5x5 scoring league (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG:W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP) to figure projected wins?

I would figure that since in the hitting catagories HR influences both R and RBI a higher value would have to be assigned to that rather than to the others. and since SB are rare there would be a lesser influence on those. Then on the pitching side ERA and WHIP have a slight cooralation as well.

Would it even be possible to develop an accurate formula to predict this or am i just talking over my head?

[wrveres]

I would figure that since in the hitting catagories HR influences both R and RBI a higher value would have to be assigned to that rather than to the others. and since SB are rare there would be a lesser influence on those. Then on the pitching side ERA and WHIP have a slight cooralation as well.

Would it even be possible to develop an accurate formula to predict this or am i just talking over my head?

Actually it's quite the opposite. I understand what you are saying but .. What make's Jaun Pierre or Luis Castillo so expensive?

I look at two main thing's when selecting/drafting/ranking a pitcher. Ratio and Team stength. Also Ballpark's play huge. I love NL West pitcher's because of Pac Bell, Chavez Ravine and Qualcomm. Just bench them in ther annual one or two start's in Col. I imagine Livan Hernandez's number's will go through the roof now that he is out of Pac Bell, and I don't mean his win's.

Also Era has no correlation to Ratio. Ratio is the best study of what a "pitcher" is doing. ERA is what a "team" does, though it is assigned to the pitcher. If a pitcher leaves the bases loaded his ERA is 0. Last year Ishii had a horrible Ratio but his ERA was good because LA had a quality team behind it. (Then he got smacked in the face)

Bottomline is .. there is no way to project win's, .. no formula .. just homework and matchup's. IMO

[Arlo]

If I recall correctly, the folks who designed the original roto game tested their categories with several years' worth of major league standings and found that the correlation was pretty good. (Although as wrveres said, there - fortunately - isn't a perfect projection formula. )

[joshparrish]

does anyone know where i can find a list of stats for the past year like the total number of hits in MLB and so forth. I thought i saw a list on the baseball almanac website a couple months ago but cannot find it now.

[wrveres]

Let me know if find one .. I would buy another hard drive if I could get my hand's on a MLB Database. A quality one.

[joshparrish]

i found stats for the hitting catagories:

http://baseball-almanac.com/himenu.shtml

now if i can find the pitching ones

[Arlo]

Just change himenu to pimenu in that link for the pitching charts.

[joshparrish]

yea, but the pitching menu does not have the year by year totals like the hit menus do.

[joshparrish]

ok this is what i have cam up woth so far number wise:

2002 SEASON STATS (5x5 catagories) (MLB TOTALS)

R- 22408
HR- 5059
RBI- 21332
SB- 2750
BA- .261

W- 2425
SV- 1483
K- 31395
ERA- 5.36
WHIP- 1.37

The hitting stats were taken from the Baseball Almanac site, and the pitching stats were taken from:

http://baseballguru.com/bbdata1.html

There is some info for you statheads like me.