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Travis Hafner - 2nd half

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Postby reiser » Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:01 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote: He may be one of the exceptions to the rule but statistically no. The percentage of batters who increase HR power substantially after age 27 between 1900-2003 is infinitesimal. So I wouldn't bank on it.
Barry Bonds is one of them, no? Hafner I think has a future as a solid 1B. But he won't be better then Big Tex next year.[/quote]

mmm....Hafner was a top prospect, 26 at the beginning of this season:

"By Jim Callis
December 6, 2002
The Indians and Rangers each filled holes in their starting lineups and picked up rotation fodder with a four-player trade on Friday. Cleveland received first baseman Travis Hafner and righthander Aaron Myette, while Texas added catcher Einar Diaz and righty Ryan Drese. Shortly thereafter, Indians general manager Mark Shapiro was arrested for grand theft slugger...Hafner, 25, is one of the better first-base and offensive prospects in the game. "
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:09 pm

Amazinz wrote:
LBJackal wrote:I think there's a good chance he turns into a perennial 30 HR guy. Just look how much he's improved in the past year, you don't think he can turn all those doubles (third in the majors) into HR's in a coupel years/next year?

Mike Lowell went from being a 20 HR guy with a ton of doubles at age 28 to one of the best HR hitters in baseball at age 29/30. I wouldn't say the amount is infantesimal, especially for players in their first full big-league season.

I think he can turn those doubles into HRs. I have never taken into account experience when looking at the numbers but the numbers really are infinitesimal. Late-bloomers are normally exceptions to the rule but if you want to play the numbers I will pass next year.


Next year? How about this year? LOL. I don't think it's infinitesimal, and I think you came up with that off the top of your head. Do you really have any evidence, or just "guessing"? Any stats showing that prospects who hit a ton of doubles in their mid 20's don't have a spike in power output when they turn the doubles into HR's? I think it's the norm to expect doubles hitters to have big increases in HR's once they mature.
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Postby Amazinz » Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:20 pm

LBJackal wrote:
Amazinz wrote:
LBJackal wrote:I think there's a good chance he turns into a perennial 30 HR guy. Just look how much he's improved in the past year, you don't think he can turn all those doubles (third in the majors) into HR's in a coupel years/next year?

Mike Lowell went from being a 20 HR guy with a ton of doubles at age 28 to one of the best HR hitters in baseball at age 29/30. I wouldn't say the amount is infantesimal, especially for players in their first full big-league season.

I think he can turn those doubles into HRs. I have never taken into account experience when looking at the numbers but the numbers really are infinitesimal. Late-bloomers are normally exceptions to the rule but if you want to play the numbers I will pass next year.


Next year? How about this year? LOL. I don't think it's infinitesimal, and I think you came up with that off the top of your head. Do you really have any evidence, or just "guessing"? Any stats showing that prospects who hit a ton of doubles in their mid 20's don't have a spike in power output when they turn the doubles into HR's? I think it's the norm to expect doubles hitters to have big increases in HR's once they mature.


You are trying to call me out on an individual which you cannot do. I know you like to talk before you think, Jackal, but if you read my posts more closely you will see that I said historically the odds are against him. And they are. I also said he could be an exception to the rule. There are exceptions but they are exceptions. Get it?

As a player develops doubles are very much a good indicator of home run power. I never denied that. But Hafner spent 3 years in Single-A and another year in Double-A. By the time he spent two years in AAA he was overaged and you can't take his stats at face value. What I said was that statistically it was very unlikely to become a 40 HR hitter. I still stand by that.

I understand you have an agenda with me, Jackal, and you are making a feeble attempt to one-up me or embarrass me. But come on, do Mother Canada proud. You can do better than that. I have faith in you. Nice classy sig btw! :-D
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:45 pm

I don't have anything against you.... I don't know why you think that. Especially not an agenda. I don't like to get personal.

But you say "I said historically the odds are against him. And they are." .... what odds? Odds that top prospects will develop power when they are near the league lead in doubles? I'd like to see your evidence that players like Hafner don't have a big increase in power.

I said he could be a perennial 30 HR player and you said you'd pass because the odds are infinitesimal. I don't think you have any idea what those odds are.

And I'm glad you like my sig.
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Postby Ender » Wed Jul 21, 2004 2:54 pm

Hafner has hit 20+ HR every full season since 1999. I dont' really see why you could possibly say his minor league stats translate into someone unlikely to hit 30 HR a year.

He had 114 HR in 696 hits in the minors and hit .298.

Assuming he gets around 170-180 hits a year which is reasonable from a near .300 hitter that would translate into 28-30 HR's a season assuming those minor league stats directly translate into major league stats which of course they don't. The point is there isn't any indicator in his minor league stats that he isn't capable of 30 HR a year.
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Postby Amazinz » Wed Jul 21, 2004 3:03 pm

Ender wrote:Hafner has hit 20+ HR every full season since 1999. I dont' really see why you could possibly say his minor league stats translate into someone unlikely to hit 30 HR a year.

In 1999 he was 23-year old playing in Single-A! What I am saying is that IMHO due to his age his numbers in the minors are misleading. In comparison to players who developed in similar fashion he does not project to be a 30-40 HR hitter. I am not saying that he can't but that when I prepare for next year I personally would not bank on those HR numbers.
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Postby shortsavage » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:12 pm

I liked when Hafner was hitting third. Can he at least bat before Casey Balke?
Mike Pelfrey > Matt Garza
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Postby RynMan » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:34 pm

shortsavage wrote:
LBJackal wrote:I didn't know he had that many doubles, wow. He has the same amount of extra base hits as Scott Rolen! Looks to be a bigger power threat in the future.... I can see him getting 30-35 HR per season in a few years.


Do you think he is going to find his power stroke after the age of 27? Isn't this the season that he should be hitting the ball out of the park?


Steve Finley has found his power stroke as of late....how old is he?

I wish i had Hafner on my team, so I could trade extra high on him.
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