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Postby NZF » Wed Jul 14, 2004 10:43 pm

thehat wrote:NZF...respect your views, but I just can't see what it is that gets you buzzed about Julio.


Probably more of a wind up than anything else ;-)

I over rated the O's at the beginning of the season and predicted close to 40 saves for Julio with better overall numbers than what he showed in 2003. I also made a strong case showing the high % of pitchers that regress in their second seasons in the bigs, using that to support the theory that Julio would improve this season.

Now this guy pretty much started lights out in April. I saw him pitch a couple of times and he was throwing very very well. After the first 30 odd days of the season he had thrown 14 innings with 4 saves a win and an ERA of 0.64 and a WHIP below 1.00. At the end of May his ERA was still well below 3.00 and he had converted 8 from 9 save opportunities.

Since then, some 7 weeks later he has pitched just a further 11 times :-? His ERA has blown out to 4.58 due to pitching in non-save situations. 12 of his 18 ER's this season have come in non- save situations. He is really suffering from not getting regular work and as we all know he has focus problems at the best of times so this for him is not ideal. He has still converted 6 out of every 7 save opps. he's been given. As good as guys like Smoltz and better than several so called other Top Tier closers.

Now I know he is nothing special, he walks way too many guys for a start to ever be a great closer, but IMO he is a great buy low candidate right now knowing that close opps. have a habit of evening out over a season and that there is no way in hell that he will be replaced as the O's closer.


Other than that I can't see what gets me all buzzed up about him either :-)
When you're right no one remembers, when you're wrong no one forgets - NZF
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