Baseball Prospectus - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Baseball Prospectus

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Baseball Prospectus

Postby INeedaFavoriteTeam » Thu Jul 08, 2004 11:44 pm

Has anyone ever used BP as a source for drafting a fantasy team before? I was curious as to how they did for the season. Seeing that it's the halfway point to the season, I checked out some of the predictions that BP made. It seems like they were generally very conservative in their predictions. Many players have already surpassed the season predictions, especially HR and Hits for hitters and SO for pitchers. But i guess it does offer a lot of good analysis and insightful information on minor league players.

Victor Martinez:

2004: AB H HR SO AVG OBP SLG
313 81 8 43 .261 .326 .399

i bet they wish to have that prediction back though....
INeedaFavoriteTeam
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 50
Joined: 11 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby INeedaFavoriteTeam » Fri Jul 09, 2004 12:21 am

oh yeah forgot about this with v-mart:

Breakout: 14%
Improve 37%
Collapse: 33% :-?
INeedaFavoriteTeam
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 50
Joined: 11 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby ocmusicjunkie » Fri Jul 09, 2004 12:29 am

Sheets had a funny profile on there. I think his breakout was like 10%, wasn't it? Same with Graves I'm sure. :-D
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


Harden- 2.15 ERA, 7.61 K/9
Peavy - 2.89 ERA, 10.10 K/9

[b]Lets go Rich![/b]
ocmusicjunkie
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 828
Joined: 6 Jul 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby BobbyRoberto » Fri Jul 09, 2004 12:47 am

I used Baseball Prospectus quite a bit this year and, you're right, many of their projections are low, especially for young guys who have been great so far, like Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera.

What they do is use past players as comparibles and come up with expected numbers. I don't know of players as young as Martinez and Cabrera that have busted out like they have (well, except for Pujols).

At the half-way point of the season, I looked at the rosters of 5 teams in my league to see how PECOTA (BP's projection system) and I don't think PECOTA's too far off. They missed some players, like Victor Martinez, among others, but those guys have had amazing half-seasons, so far.

PECOTA projected much too low:
Scott Rolen, Melvin Mora, Victor Martinez, Matt Lawton, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Clement, Freddy Garcia, Roger Clemens, Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez.

~What projection system had those guys doing as well as they're doing?

PECOTA projected somewhat too low:
Miguel Tejada, Randy Johnson

~Randy Johnson was only projected to pitch 159.3 innings

PECOTA is very close to actual #'s:
Johnny Damon, Jason Varitek, Jeff Kent, Roy Halladay, Woody Williams, Javier Vazquez, Jason Isringhausen,

PECOTA projected somewhat too high:
Edgar Renteria, Jay Payton, Richard Hidalgo, Jeff Bagwell, Alfonso Soriano

~Hidalgo, for one, is coming around and could still reach his projections

PECOTA projected way too high:
Austin Kearns, Nick Johnson (both injured), Morgan Ensberg, Shawn Green, Marlon Byrd, Josh Phelps, Ryan Klesko, Arthur Rhodes, Mike Mussina, Joe Borowski (inj.), Matt Mantei (inj.), Pedro Martinez (off on ERA, close on K's and Wins), Kevin Millwood.

~A mix of injuries and players who didn't live up to anyone's expectations.

This is a sampling from 5 teams in my league, at the half-way point. One thing PECOTA was way off on was the Expos, who had some great hitting projections because of ballpark effects. Last year, the games in Puerto Rico were homerfests. This year, they aren't.

I'll dig into this more at the end of the year, with a full season's worth of stats.
Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'
BobbyRoberto
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe Writer
Posts: 1269
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Bothell, Washington

Postby INeedaFavoriteTeam » Fri Jul 09, 2004 12:53 am

Great stuff Roberto....curious though as how you are faring in those 5 leagues that you used BP as a reference for drafting?....or you're like me, not looking at it until after the draft this year?
INeedaFavoriteTeam
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 50
Joined: 11 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby BobbyRoberto » Fri Jul 09, 2004 1:23 am

No, the post earlier wasn't for my team in 5 different leagues, it was for 5 teams from one league that I'm in. I chose 5 teams from my league (including my own team) and used those rosters for the PECOTA comparison.

I used PECOTA quite a bit in drafting my team. I'm currently in 2nd place in a 12-team league, a couple points behind the leader. I drafted Austin Kearns and Nick Johnson, expecting big things because of their PECOTA projections, and their injuries have hurt me. Also, I went for Jose Vidro and Brad Wilkerson because PECOTA had great projections for them, and the Expos haven't been scoring much, so that's hurt me also.

My draft:
1st--Bonds (has been great)
2nd--Schilling (has been great)
3rd--Rolen (has been great)
4th--Thome (has been great)
5th--T. Hudson (solid)
6th--Johan Santana (really coming around now)
7th--Jose Vidro (coming on strong)
8th--Octavio Dotel (so so)
9th--Varitek (slumping lately)
10th--Clement (would be great with better run-support)
11th--Rhodes (awful)
12th--Wilkerson (low batting average, but good HRs)
13th--B.H. Kim (awful)
14th--Edwin Jackson (sent to minors)
15th--Rollins (has been okay, but I dropped him for C. Guillen)
16th--Kearns (injured most of the year)
17th--Nick Johnson (injured much of the year)
18th--Reggie Sanders (very streaky)

I'm in 2nd place right now, could move into first any day because there are a lot of close categories.
Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'
BobbyRoberto
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe Writer
Posts: 1269
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Bothell, Washington

Postby perlick29 » Fri Jul 09, 2004 12:16 pm

Ok as you may be able to tell from my location. I use BP like know other. I follow what they have to say about each guy as well as their PECOTA projections, to a T.

I'm in 1st place in my big money 14 team league. Everyone should def. pick it up as a reference source for their teams. I've written about it several times. Any questions anyone might have about I'd love to answer.

BP is conservative but that is because their PECOTA projections are what they may be expecteds to do but they say several times that most players should beat their projections.

USE MY BIBLE ;-D ;-D ;-D
Image
Forget the man crush. I drop what I'm doing to watch Zack Greinke pitch.
perlick29
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe WriterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafecasterPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 4810
Joined: 10 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: praising the almighty Baseball Prospectus


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2015 MLB season starts in 12:04 hours
(and 89 days)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact