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Postby West Coast Fan » Fri Jul 09, 2004 1:45 pm

I'm not saying that Crawford is first round material. But even though Beltran was available in the first round during most of my drafts, I selected someone else (Ramirez or Sosa for example) instead of Beltran. Part of this has to be about how you package your team.

I have six fantasy teams. Three in 1st, two in 2nd and one in 3rd. The highest I drafted Crawford was the sixth round and the lowest was 13th round. Teams that drafted Beltran (all except one in 1st round) are as high as 5th place, 11 points behind me, and as low as 9th place, 40 points behind. In H2H leagues, they are either 19 or 22 games behind me.

They may have been high on Beltran, but they IMO, wasted their first round pick. Unless your first round pick is a total bust so far (see Prior or Halliday picks), or way underperforming their expected value (teams who chose Normar in the first) these teams could have done better.
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Postby Lofunzo » Fri Jul 09, 2004 3:58 pm

IMHO, that is just coincidence. I guarantee that I could have drafted Josh Fogg in the 1st round and still be winning my league. As long as the rest of your draft, as well as trades and WW pickups are good, 1 draft pick will not kill your team. Even if it is a 1st round pick.
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Postby boxscorejunkie » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:30 pm

Lofunzo wrote:IMHO, that is just coincidence. I guarantee that I could have drafted Josh Fogg in the 1st round and still be winning my league. As long as the rest of your draft, as well as trades and WW pickups are good, 1 draft pick will not kill your team. Even if it is a 1st round pick.


Amen....which is why if one can take care of 75 stolen bases in the first round your golden...it would make the rest of the draft much easier loading up on power hitters
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Postby NZF » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:41 pm

Madison wrote:Now even if he continues this great season (notice I gave him some credit there), his final numbers would be:

.302-8-68 with 122 runs and 76 steals.

Is that first round material? Not to me. Pierre is capable of doing the exact same thing (minus the 8 homers). Yes, Crawford is very valuable, but he's not a first round pick just yet.


If you take a look at what he has done in his career to date, there is far more in his favour than Beltran's, to suggest his second half will be better than his first. This guy just keeps on improving.

The numbers you gave comparing Pierre and Crawford are way way different. 7 HR's, 27 Rbi's, 20 Runs and 11 Steals over the course of a season is rather significant. There is no doubt that if Crawford does put up those numbers he will be a first round draft choice of many, although there will still be a number of doubters who just will not take a stolen base guy with their first pick no matter what else he is capable of doing for your team.

I agree that steals are a fickle category. As Jackal pointed out the steal leaders have been different the past few seasons but we take that risk with all first round picks with injury and the like. Every year there is 1st round busts but you can't predict that sort of thing, you can only draft with the evidence in front of you and Crawford on the evidence in front of me right now should be taken ahead of Beltran in drafts. If that makes him a first rounder then so be it.
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Postby West Coast Fan » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:43 pm

And the guy who took Gange to lock up saves, unless he really did a good job in the draft, isn't in first place (at least not in any of the leagues I'm in). Manny was great last year and again this year. I saw Beltran taken before Manny in many of the drafts and those teams are out of it.

Skipping Beltran and taking a hitter like Manny in the first round worked for me. And aiming for Crawford in the 6th-8th rounds filled out my outfield and gave me SB with a decent BA and excellent Runs Scored.

I wonder whether the competitive teams steal less bases. The fact that Beltran was stealing bases with KC and Crawford steals with TB while St Louis, Philadelphia and other 1st division teams tend to not steal a lot (exception being Marlins)

I'm happy with Crawford and feel that he's a steal (pun intended) in the middle rounds.
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Postby joshheines » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:47 pm

Madison wrote:Let's take a look at something:

Pierre last year:

.305-1-41 with 100 runs and 65 steals.

Crawford this year:

.302-4-34 with 61 runs and 38 steals. Now even if he continues this great season (notice I gave him some credit there), his final numbers would be:

.302-8-68 with 122 runs and 76 steals.

Is that first round material? Not to me. Pierre is capable of doing the exact same thing (minus the 8 homers). Yes, Crawford is very valuable, but he's not a first round pick just yet.


Mad's you're leaving out a few key facts. First and foremost, Pierre only had 41 RBIs last year. Crawford is on pace for 66 RBIs. 25 RBIs is significant. I think that's what people are talking about that he can't hurt you in certain categories. Second, Crawford is 22 and already 6'2" and 220 lbs. He's got the build to go yard. We all know HR come with age. Would it really surprise you to see Crawford have 15 HR in 2006? I could see him steadily improving and being a beast, more so than now. Also factor in that Crawford should get more runs than Pierre on a regular basis for years because of Xtra base hits. Pierre averages about 40 xtra base hits per year. Crawford is on pace for 56.

Bottom line: If Beltran only steals 20 per year, I'll take Crawford every day.
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Postby NY1b23 » Fri Jul 09, 2004 5:18 pm

I think Beltran edges Crawford in overall value when all is said and done, by a SMALL margin.

But -
1. The scarcity of stolen bases - meaning, for argument's sake, let's say the avg hitter on any fantasy roster hits 18 HR in a season. If that's true (and I'm just throwing it out there for sake of comparison), the avg hitter on any fantasy roster would probably have about 6 steals. So for a guy to be eyeing 80 steals - that's outlandish. He may win the category by 20.

2. The argument about a HR being more valuable because it's also an automatic RBI is a fallacy - a HR is a HR. It is what it is. If Crawford scores 120 runs and Bonds 120, I don't give Bonds the edge in that stat because he got most of his loafing around the bases with that dumb elbow thing on.

3. Take a guy like Dunn - let's say his runs end up around 110 and his avg around 250-260 - but he led the league in HR's by 25% over any other player. Say he hit 60 and the next guy hit 45. He'd be an elite player - just like Crawford is.

I traded Carlos Lee to get Crawford in the second week of the season. I'm enjoying it.
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Postby Madison » Sat Jul 10, 2004 4:15 am

We'll see how the drafts go next year, but It is becoming crystal clear to me that Crawford will not be on any of my teams. Just like Pierre this year, he will go way too high and quite possibly won't be a very good value pick. Time will tell.
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Postby who am I » Sat Jul 10, 2004 10:24 am

If I had carl crawford right now I would be trying to sell him high like crazy right now. Until that one crazy week he had a little while back no one was honestly considering taking him in the first round next year. When it takes him another 25-30 games to hit his next home run I'm sure all this craziness will die down
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Postby boxscorejunkie » Sat Jul 10, 2004 3:16 pm

who am I wrote:If I had carl crawford right now I would be trying to sell him high like crazy right now. Until that one crazy week he had a little while back no one was honestly considering taking him in the first round next year. When it takes him another 25-30 games to hit his next home run I'm sure all this craziness will die down


who cares how many home runs he hits, his value is in stolen bases...if he steals another 30+ bases during the second half I would definitely consider him in the middle to late 1st round...he can flat out fly around the basepaths, and unlike the slap hitter Pierre, he actually looks like a baseball player...he's the real deal
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