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Ollie vs. Hudson. Interesting comparison.

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Ollie vs. Hudson. Interesting comparison.

Postby rjforlife » Mon Jul 05, 2004 2:13 am

this isnt merely a look at the value of hudson vs. oliver perez but more an observation on the value of strikeout pitchers(perez) against non-strikeout pitchers(hudson)

hudson is on the DL but hes only missed 1 start so its still fair to compare their stats head to head in the 4 major pitching cats.


hudson:7 wins, 2.98 era. 1.24 whip. 52 k's.

perez: 4 wins. 3.22 era. 1.12 whip. 113 k's.

now if i asked you before you read this if you would rather have perez or hudson i would guess about 90% would say hudson. but looking at the stats look at the difference in stats.

hudson is +3 wins, -.24 era, +.12 whip, and minus 61 k's.

over the course of the season the new numbers would be:

hudson +6 wins, -.24 era, +.12 whip, -122 k's.

now the difference between the era and whip cancel each other out in roto value. leaving the wins vs. the k's.

so what i did is take my 9 team league leaders wins and k's * 2 to get the season total and divide the difference in numbers to find out which accounted for more of the season total.

the 6 wins account for 7% of the season total of the team while the strikeouts accounted for 10 % of the season total. also, the era difference accounted for 7% and the whip 10%, coincidentally

hence, ollie perez is actually more valuable than hudson the way he is currently pitching, although the numbers are deceptive because hudson has lower era and more wins he appears to be more valuable, but ollie actually has a solid edge due to the healthy edge in whip and enourmous edge in strikeouts.


just some late night ramblings from a tired man.
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Postby George_Foreman » Mon Jul 05, 2004 2:37 am

i've got one problem with your analysis, but it actually strengthens you conclusions:

the era difference and the whip difference are EXTREMELY different in value. in fact, the whip difference is about twice as useful as the era difference. well, in my league, anyways.

after getting rid of outlyers (era of 3.12, 4.49), the range of eras in my leage is .39, while the difference in whip is .13, meaning that going down one hundreth of a point in whip is equivalent to about three hundreths of a point in era.

so, perez's lower whip of .12 would equate to a .36 higher era. since his is only .24 worst than hudsons, he would also have an edge in net value for ratios.

wow. i should really try to get this guy. ^^

nice work, btw. i don't look at numbers like this as much as i should. thanks! :D
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Postby GSes » Mon Jul 05, 2004 2:55 am

well the problem with your theory is that Hudson's 1.22 WHIP is going to go WAY down over the rest of the season. He had a whip below 1.05 last season.

Hudson's K's should also come up as well. He is currently getting like 4.31 K's per 9IP but he is a career 6.58 K's/9 and last season his K's were up from the previous seasons.

I would expect Huddy's K rate to finish somewhere around 6.0 K's/9IP and his WHIP to be around or below 1.10

he is a major 2nd half pitcher. He will win 17-20 games, strike out around 140, with an ERA under 3 and a whip around 1.10 or better.

Oliver Perez is an ace in the making however he could hit that wall that many young unprooven guys hit down the road in the season, he has never pitched a major season.

If someone offered me Hudson for Perez, I would take huddy in a NY minute. Hudson is a legit ACE, and although he dosen't get major K's, he is simply so good that in the 2nd half he will by himself carry your team ratios.

Perez is not even in hudson league.
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Postby rjforlife » Mon Jul 05, 2004 3:12 am

Gses i agree with you on hudsons numbers improving but i was merely making an observation on their CURRENT stats and how hudsons low era and decent wins versus ollies 4 wins and decent era are misleading to the point that hudson is more valuable fantasy-wise currently, and to the point about whip i assesed that era and whip would be negligible, hence hudsons whip drop wont affect my assement as it was based on strikeouts versus wins, to make the point that players like ollie that strike out alot of batter but dont get a ton of wins still carry a lot of value in fantasy baseball.
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Postby GSes » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:07 am

rjforlife wrote:Gses i agree with you on hudsons numbers improving but i was merely making an observation on their CURRENT stats and how hudsons low era and decent wins versus ollies 4 wins and decent era are misleading to the point that hudson is more valuable fantasy-wise currently, and to the point about whip i assesed that era and whip would be negligible, hence hudsons whip drop wont affect my assement as it was based on strikeouts versus wins, to make the point that players like ollie that strike out alot of batter but dont get a ton of wins still carry a lot of value in fantasy baseball.


then yes on current stats, you would be very correct ;-D
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