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Adam Dunn haters...Where are you?

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Postby LCBOY » Sat Jul 03, 2004 6:18 pm

Madison wrote:
wkelly91 wrote:So you couldn't use a .273-108-49-105 hitter on your team?


You are making the mistake of assuming he can keep it up. This is the best he's ever played in the majors and there's absolutely nothing to suggest that it will continue. In fact, everything says to sell high right now if you happen to own him.

Any major leaguer can get hot for a couple of weeks or else they wouldn't be major leaguers. ;-)


Madison,

Your statement is not quite accurate.

He's played at this level for extended periods in the past. He came up in August of 2001. From August 2001 through the All-Star break of 2002 he played extremely well. In those 148 games:

.283 BA
36 HRs
97 RBI
116 BBs
102 runs
166 Ks

Now from post All-Star 2002 through the end of the 2003 season he was terrible, batting only .205.

In 2004 he is doing well again. It seems like he has made adjustments at the plate. I believe he is the future of baseball in the sense that very soon we will have guys routinely hit .280-.300 with 40-50 HRs, tons of RBIs, runs, walks and over 200 strikeouts! Within 10 years the 200 strikeout season will become common because someone like Dunn will get through the stigma of all those strikeouts and then no one will care anymore.
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Postby DK » Sat Jul 03, 2004 6:29 pm

Quaker wrote:Want to know who else had a problem maintaining a good average their first four years? Barry Bonds.

.223, .261, .283, .248

He didn't crack .300 until his 5th year. In fact, his career AVG is less than .300.

I'm not saying Dunn is the next Bonds, but that a young hitter can take some time before hitting for average.

I don't think Dunn will ever hit .370 like Bonds did, but I think Dunn can be a .300 hitter in the future (albeit probably not consistently).


Bonds didn't get the astounding number of K's that Dunn is tallying in his first four years. Dunn strikes out way too much for me to consider him. Take about 50 or so K's off a season, and we'll talk.
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Postby wkelly91 » Sat Jul 03, 2004 6:33 pm

Agreed ;-D
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Postby Madison » Sun Jul 04, 2004 12:19 am

LCBOY wrote:Madison,

Your statement is not quite accurate.

He's played at this level for extended periods in the past. He came up in August of 2001. From August 2001 through the All-Star break of 2002 he played extremely well. In those 148 games:

.283 BA
36 HRs
97 RBI
116 BBs
102 runs
166 Ks

Now from post All-Star 2002 through the end of the 2003 season he was terrible, batting only .205.

In 2004 he is doing well again. It seems like he has made adjustments at the plate. I believe he is the future of baseball in the sense that very soon we will have guys routinely hit .280-.300 with 40-50 HRs, tons of RBIs, runs, walks and over 200 strikeouts! Within 10 years the 200 strikeout season will become common because someone like Dunn will get through the stigma of all those strikeouts and then no one will care anymore.


Great. Of all the times for you to reappear, it would be now, huh? Lol. :-D

Ok, let's take a closer look at those numbers you provided. In 2001, Dunn hit .262 for the season. Yep, a whopping .262. Now pre-All Star break of 2002, Dunn did manage to hit .300 in 283 at bats, thus making your numbers sound a little better than they actually are. One half of a season with good numbers just isn't enough to sell me that he is now all of a sudden for real this year.

Anyway, I'm not doubting that the kid has potential or a future. Just that he will do more harm than good on your roster this year. I admit that by as early as next year, my opinion could change, but right now he's just not someone I'd be interested in.
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Postby Members Only Jackets » Sun Jul 04, 2004 4:32 am

In leagues that count k's he's not very good because:

He helps you w/ HR. KILLS you w/ K's. --they cross eachother out.

So what's left? Average? Eehhh, he's not very good in that dept....RBI? With all those HR's he should have more RBI's but it's not bad. Runs? Ehh.



right? ;-)
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Postby wkelly91 » Sun Jul 04, 2004 6:54 pm

Bonds vs Dunn

DUNN (AGE-22/25, 2001/PRESENT)

AB-1427 R-261 HR-96 HR/AB-14.9 RBI-222 BB-303 BB/AB-4.2 K-470 K/AB-3.0 AVE-.246

BONDS (AGE 22/24, 1986/1988)

AB-1502 R-268 HR-65 HR/AB-23.1 RBI-165 BB-191 BB/AB-7.9 K-272 K/AB-5.5 AVE-.258

I included the first half of this year due to Dunn losing 1/2 year from injury. As you can see, Bonds and Dunn compare quite favorably.

Interesting note, the last three years Dunns Hr/AB ratio has increased from:

2002-20.6
2003-14.1
2004-11.1

Dunn's OBP and OPS have been better than Bonds all three years.

Bonds showed better plate discipline from his rookie year to sophmore, while Dunn hasn't improved at all. In fact, Dunn is striking out even more this year than in his previous three years (2.7 k/ab).

Bonds blossomed from 1989 to 1990 when he turned age 26.

(25).248-19-58
(26).301-33-114 with a HR/AB ratio of (15.7).

Dunn won't be turning 26 till November of next year!

Put him on your draft list for 2005 ;-D

The Surgeon General warning: If you draft Adam Dunn next year and you are in a league which counts K's, he could be hazerdous to your health.

I am in two that don't. He will be high on my list ;-)
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Postby Jivedude » Sun Jul 04, 2004 8:19 pm

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Postby LCBOY » Mon Jul 05, 2004 4:00 pm

Madison wrote:
LCBOY wrote:Madison,

Your statement is not quite accurate.

He's played at this level for extended periods in the past. He came up in August of 2001. From August 2001 through the All-Star break of 2002 he played extremely well. In those 148 games:

.283 BA
36 HRs
97 RBI
116 BBs
102 runs
166 Ks

Now from post All-Star 2002 through the end of the 2003 season he was terrible, batting only .205.

In 2004 he is doing well again. It seems like he has made adjustments at the plate. I believe he is the future of baseball in the sense that very soon we will have guys routinely hit .280-.300 with 40-50 HRs, tons of RBIs, runs, walks and over 200 strikeouts! Within 10 years the 200 strikeout season will become common because someone like Dunn will get through the stigma of all those strikeouts and then no one will care anymore.


Great. Of all the times for you to reappear, it would be now, huh? Lol. :-D

Ok, let's take a closer look at those numbers you provided. In 2001, Dunn hit .262 for the season. Yep, a whopping .262. Now pre-All Star break of 2002, Dunn did manage to hit .300 in 283 at bats, thus making your numbers sound a little better than they actually are. One half of a season with good numbers just isn't enough to sell me that he is now all of a sudden for real this year.

Anyway, I'm not doubting that the kid has potential or a future. Just that he will do more harm than good on your roster this year. I admit that by as early as next year, my opinion could change, but right now he's just not someone I'd be interested in.


Madison,
I just had to throw in my 2 cents didn't I? :-D I know that you are a roto guy, so I can see your point that his value might be limited. In my H2H league we have 12 offensive categories so his power and walks have a lot of value. He does hit HRs , drive in runs, scores runs, and takes walks. He'll never a consistent .300 hitter because of his Ks. From time to time he will hit .300 but not consistently. Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson, and Sammy were/are high K guys and they had .300 seasons once in a while.

As for comparing him to Bonds, I'm sorry but that is just stretching it. Bonds has K'ed 100 times in a season just one time. In his rookie season he K'ed 102 times. In his career, Bonds has averaged 86 Ks per 162 games played. Since his rookie year he's had just three seasons in which he had over 90 Ks.

Young players that strikeout a lot tend to strikeout a lot as old players. I doubt there's ever bee na player that struck out 150 times a year drop that to say 60-70 K's a year. That just doesn't happen.
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