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Adam Dunn haters...Where are you?

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Postby ramble2 » Fri Jul 02, 2004 10:38 am

I got him in a trade a month ago. It was feast or famine (mostly feast, thankfully.) Turned around and traded him for Halladay (I had to throw in a little extra, but not much). Today's the last day he's on my roster.

How does that make me feel? As the emoticon say, 'relieved'! :-°

Honestly, I don't know what to make of him. If he hits around .270 then he at least becomes a viable player to have on your squad (though he still drags that average down a little). But that's a big risk, having a player on your team that you *hope* hits .270 to be useful. Too much stress. Trade him now while he's hot for a more consistent player.

Dunn could turn into something very special, he's only 24 and a lot of players struggle in their first MLB season or so (especially with BA). Dunn also hit .304 in his minor league career (including .329 in AAA). He might have a very bright career in front of him. Whether he's worth having on your team this year depends on where you are in the standings. If you need to take a risk to make a move, go for him. If you are on top of the league standings, trade him to shore up another part of your team.
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Postby Quaker » Fri Jul 02, 2004 10:49 am

Want to know who else had a problem maintaining a good average their first four years? Barry Bonds.

.223, .261, .283, .248

He didn't crack .300 until his 5th year. In fact, his career AVG is less than .300.

I'm not saying Dunn is the next Bonds, but that a young hitter can take some time before hitting for average.

I don't think Dunn will ever hit .370 like Bonds did, but I think Dunn can be a .300 hitter in the future (albeit probably not consistently).
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Postby MrTwo94 » Fri Jul 02, 2004 10:51 am

I play in a points league where HR=4 and K=-1.

He is complete garbage there.

He is on pace for 200 K's. It would take a Jason Kendall or Juan Pierre 5 or 6 seasons to strike out that many times!!
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Fri Jul 02, 2004 12:20 pm

Probably the ultimate feast-or-famine guy in the game today. For every 4HR/4-game stretch like he's in now, he'll turn around with a 2-23 week with about 15 K's.

That may change in the future as he matures. For now, he should only be held by owners without blood pressure issues. You can deal him high, but a few weeks down the road he'll be on an all-new high that'll leave you kicking yourself. You can buy him low, then after a hot streak he'll descend into the pits again.

Best thing is to look at the likely final line, about .250 with the chance for 40+ HR, 100 RBI. If you can live with that, ride out the dead weeks with a grimace and an eye to the next outburst.
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Postby Just Admit It Pete » Fri Jul 02, 2004 12:31 pm

Madison I have to call you out here a bit. If Dunn was a guy that no one heard of you could assume that he may fade and not keep this up but you can not discount what he is doing right now.

You can not ignore the fact that the guy has turned it around. Hell he already went into a slump this year and crawled his way out of it when he reverted back to last years habits. Here is a guy that hit in the .300's for most of his high minor assignments and needed to adjust to major league pitching. Plus having JR. and someone else in Sean Casey's body has helped tremendously- he had no protection last year and couldnt smell a fastball.

Its just like Mark Tex this year. Almost a carbon copy. Give Tex 2 years under his belt and he will be very similar to Dunn right now I believe.
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Postby Members Only Jackets » Fri Jul 02, 2004 12:47 pm

If my league counted OBP and NOT K's, he'd be great.....but he K's wayyy too much for my blood...w/ Dunn on your team, expect to NEVER win the K dept.---ONE category the same way HR's are ONE category.
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Postby Madison » Fri Jul 02, 2004 12:50 pm

Just Admit It Pete wrote:Madison I have to call you out here a bit. If Dunn was a guy that no one heard of you could assume that he may fade and not keep this up but you can not discount what he is doing right now.

You can not ignore the fact that the guy has turned it around. Hell he already went into a slump this year and crawled his way out of it when he reverted back to last years habits. Here is a guy that hit in the .300's for most of his high minor assignments and needed to adjust to major league pitching. Plus having JR. and someone else in Sean Casey's body has helped tremendously- he had no protection last year and couldnt smell a fastball.

Its just like Mark Tex this year. Almost a carbon copy. Give Tex 2 years under his belt and he will be very similar to Dunn right now I believe.


Why can't I discount what he's doing right now? What has he done to prove this is for real? The answer is absolutely nothing.

Granted, I'll give you that he did hit for reasonable average in the minors. I'll also give you that everyone (scouts, coaches, etc) all thought he would do well in the majors.

So far in his major league career, he's done squat. Now I've admitted in several threads that he has the ability to hit 40 homers. I just don't believe it's worth the price to be paid by the poor average. Can he hit .300? Maybe, but I seriously doubt that it will happen this year and that's all that matters for our fantasy leagues unless you are looking at being competitive in 2006.

Remember when Glaus was hitting .250 with 40 homers? He was only a decent investment because 3B was a wasteland back then. Extremely shallow position, so any production was good. Dunn is 1B/OF eligible in most leagues, and there are tons of options out there. I'll take the .300 avg, 30 homer guy over Dunn's .270 (?) with 40 homers and not think twice about the decision. Why? Because that .300 hitter doesn't hurt the rest of my team's batting average.

Until Dunn proves to me that he can hit major league pitching consistantly for a season, I will remain unconvinced. Even if he hits .270, odds are that he's hurting your team more than helping anyway, and that's the point I was trying to get across.
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Postby Gordonx42 » Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:16 pm

in my league, i have R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG & OPS...so the only category hes hurting me in is avg. he is extremely valuable.
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Postby wkelly91 » Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:29 pm

Madison wrote:
Just Admit It Pete wrote:Madison I have to call you out here a bit. If Dunn was a guy that no one heard of you could assume that he may fade and not keep this up but you can not discount what he is doing right now.

You can not ignore the fact that the guy has turned it around. Hell he already went into a slump this year and crawled his way out of it when he reverted back to last years habits. Here is a guy that hit in the .300's for most of his high minor assignments and needed to adjust to major league pitching. Plus having JR. and someone else in Sean Casey's body has helped tremendously- he had no protection last year and couldnt smell a fastball.

Its just like Mark Tex this year. Almost a carbon copy. Give Tex 2 years under his belt and he will be very similar to Dunn right now I believe.


Why can't I discount what he's doing right now? What has he done to prove this is for real? The answer is absolutely nothing.

Granted, I'll give you that he did hit for reasonable average in the minors. I'll also give you that everyone (scouts, coaches, etc) all thought he would do well in the majors.

So far in his major league career, he's done squat. Now I've admitted in several threads that he has the ability to hit 40 homers. I just don't believe it's worth the price to be paid by the poor average. Can he hit .300? Maybe, but I seriously doubt that it will happen this year and that's all that matters for our fantasy leagues unless you are looking at being competitive in 2006.

Remember when Glaus was hitting .250 with 40 homers? He was only a decent investment because 3B was a wasteland back then. Extremely shallow position, so any production was good. Dunn is 1B/OF eligible in most leagues, and there are tons of options out there. I'll take the .300 avg, 30 homer guy over Dunn's .270 (?) with 40 homers and not think twice about the decision. Why? Because that .300 hitter doesn't hurt the rest of my team's batting average.

Until Dunn proves to me that he can hit major league pitching consistantly for a season, I will remain unconvinced. Even if he hits .270, odds are that he's hurting your team more than helping anyway, and that's the point I was trying to get across.


A little research: 3-year ave. perenial (.300-30) hitters. Draft averages based on sportsline draft averages.

Bonds .345-55 R-1
A-Rod .306-52 R-1
Pujos .334-38 R-1
Helton .342-37 R-1
Vlad .322-33 R-1
Manny .324-37 R-2
Berkman .305-34 R-3
Sosa .298-51 R-3
Sheff .316-33 R-3
B.Giles .303-32 R-4
Boone .301-32 R-4
Ordonez .314-33 R-4
Giambi .303-40 R-4
Garrett .304-29 R-5
Chipper .321-30 R-6
Edmunds .298-32 R-9
Gonzo .307-37 R-11

Dunn was drafted on average in the 16th round, none of these guys was left.

Here's who was taken after Dunn:

Drew?
C.Wilson?
Burnitz?
Beltre?
D.Young?
Alou?
Mondesi?

Those are the best that was left....so I think you can see the .300-30 argument doesn't hold water. :,-(
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Postby Nails » Fri Jul 02, 2004 3:28 pm

well said wkelly. Alot of people bash Dunn, but depending on your league he may be great. Regardless of this, I would much rather have a .300/30 Hr guy too....who wouldn't? But they are not near as plentiful as you make them sound Madison. I would rather have a good SS and 2B and Dunn at 1B then have an awesome (.300/30 HR) at first and Miguel cairo at 2B and Chris Woodward a SS.
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