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Contreras

Postby Warpigs » Tue Jun 29, 2004 1:26 pm

Everyone talked about how great this dude's stuff was, and yet he was a consistent disappointment for most everyone that had him. He'd get hopes up by having a solid outing, followed by several where he'd give up a ton of runs and look shell-shocked.

So forgive me if I'm a little skeptical to annoint him the next Kerry Wood or Mark Prior -- even after his incredibly good (six innings, 10 k's, 0 ER) outing the other day.

I picked him off waivers and figured I'd spot-start him in my H2H league. It paid off over the weekend against a questionable at best Mets lineup. However, now people are talking about him like he's the Yank's next ace pitcher. What's up with that?

The nail in the coffin on all this hype was a trade I received in my league just today -- CWilson and Contreras for Kendall and Halladay. CWilson has flatlined to a degree (and even if he does bounce back some, Kendall isn't exactly chopped liver). So how can anyone compare Contreras and Halladay? Yeah Halladay has struggled, but his offense is non-existent to say the least and he's had some tough matchups. Contreras has been pretty miserable at times. His "stellar" outing, again, came against the Mets.

So everyone thinks that Contreras will be stud ace of the year now that his family is out of Cuba and watching games in the Bronx? I'm sorry, but I just counting the days to his next meltdown. Call me pessimistic, but this guy can't just come of the woodwork like this, can he?

Am I missing something?
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Postby Transmogrifier » Tue Jun 29, 2004 1:31 pm

I don't expect him to be as good as he was Sunday, that's for sure.

These people are engaging in one of the most common logical fallacies there is -- post hoc ergo propter hoc.

The fact that he pitched well after his family got home could simply be a coincidence. Give him a few more starts to figure out where he really is. I bet he's up and down all year.
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Postby Strasil42 » Tue Jun 29, 2004 1:34 pm

Am I missing something?


nope hurry up and take that trade tho. Halladay will probably be top 5 pitcher from here on out. i dont think jose is going to completly blow up again. but i wouldnt except too many nights like that one.
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Postby jojo » Tue Jun 29, 2004 1:53 pm

I wouldnt give up Benson for Contreras right now... his birth certificate obviously lies and much of his publicity is generated by the fact that he is on the yanks and journalists loves kissing steinburner's ass.

if he really had a good outing, why cant he last beyond 6 innings? I'm keeping my fingers crossed whenever a guy has a "great" outing but couldnt go the distance... :-t
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Postby ajgnydc722 » Tue Jun 29, 2004 1:55 pm

Strasil42 wrote:
Am I missing something?


nope hurry up and take that trade tho. Halladay will probably be top 5 pitcher from here on out. i dont think jose is going to completly blow up again. but i wouldnt except too many nights like that one.


I agree.
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Postby Ajax » Tue Jun 29, 2004 1:56 pm

Maybe Contreras has turned it around, and will pitch gems the rest of the way, and Halladay will fall apart. Both of those things would have to happen to make this a bad trade on your part. Each of those things is possible, but neither is likely.

I think you've got a far better chance of coming out ahead by taking Haladay.
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Postby ajgnydc722 » Tue Jun 29, 2004 1:58 pm

jojo wrote:I wouldnt give up Benson for Contreras right now... his birth certificate obviously lies and much of his publicity is generated by the fact that he is on the yanks and journalists loves kissing steinburner's ass.

if he really had a good outing, why cant he last beyond 6 innings? I'm keeping my fingers crossed whenever a guy has a "great" outing but couldnt go the distance... :-t


Umm, he didn't last past 6 innings because he got hurt with a forearm cramp. And I would definately give up Benson for him.
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Postby Patella Tendon » Tue Jun 29, 2004 1:59 pm

So everyone thinks that Contreras will be stud ace of the year now that his family is out of Cuba and watching games in the Bronx? I'm sorry, but I just counting the days to his next meltdown. Call me pessimistic, but this guy can't just come of the woodwork like this, can he?

Am I missing something?



Out of the woodwork?

Look at last year's stats - 9 starts W7 L2 ERA 3.29 71IP 72K's
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Postby RWLongy4 » Tue Jun 29, 2004 2:00 pm

Yeah, I like Halladay over Jose by a lot. I consider Jose to be a solid 4th-5th starter part of the reason I rate him like I do is because there is a risk involved in that he may return to his early season form. The thing with Halladay is you aren't going to see him match any of those performances that Contreras had early.

What makes a stud is not how good his good outings are but how good his bad ones are.
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Postby Warpigs » Tue Jun 29, 2004 2:01 pm

I say out of the woodwork because most owners had left Contreras for dead in many leagues this year. In fact, he has hit the waivers in most every league I'm in this year and wasn't picked up for long stretches of time.
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