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Question for Statheads.

Postby matmat » Sat Jun 26, 2004 9:45 pm

I am not quite sure where to look this up, I don't own the prospectus or any of bill james' writings...

how many runs score on average in the following two situations:

1) runners on 1st and 2nd, zero outs
2) runners on 2nd and 3rd, one out.
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Sat Jun 26, 2004 10:13 pm

The grid of expected runs in an inning based on the outs and runner situation, originally developed by John Thorn and Pete Palmer in The Hidden Game of Baseball:

Runners
Outs None 1st 2nd 3rd 1st&2nd 1st&3rd 2nd&3rd Loaded
0 0.454 0.783 1.068 1.277 1.380 1.639 1.946 2.254
1 0.249 0.478 0.699 0.897 0.888 1.088 1.371 1.546
2 0.095 0.209 0.348 0.382 0.457 0.494 0.661 0.798

These numbers were used for years of data up to 1983, so Baseball Prospectus updated them using just last season, 2003:

Runners
Outs None 1st 2nd 3rd 1st&2nd 1st&3rd 2nd&3rd Loaded
0 0.531 0.919 1.177 1.380 1.551 1.869 2.023 2.474
1 0.282 0.535 0.706 1.032 0.909 1.211 1.428 1.544
2 0.109 0.237 0.341 0.384 0.454 0.518 0.541 0.797

Using just 2003, there's a significant DISADVANTAGE to bunting in a "1st&2nd, 0 outs" situation:

1st&2nd, 0 outs: 1.551
2nd&3rd, 1 out: 1.211

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Postby wrveres » Sun Jun 27, 2004 5:00 am

BobbyRoberto wrote:The grid of expected runs in an inning based on the outs and runner situation, originally developed by John Thorn and Pete Palmer in The Hidden Game of Baseball:

Runners
Code: Select all
Outs   None   1st    2nd    3rd   1st&2nd  1st&3rd  2nd&3rd  Loaded
0    0.454  0.783  1.068  1.277   1.380    1.639    1.946   2.254
1    0.249  0.478  0.699  0.897   0.888    1.088    1.371   1.546
2    0.095  0.209  0.348  0.382   0.457    0.494    0.661   0.798


These numbers were used for years of data up to 1983, so Baseball Prospectus updated them using just last season, 2003:

Runners
Code: Select all
Outs   None   1st    2nd    3rd   1st&2nd  1st&3rd  2nd&3rd  Loaded
0    0.531  0.919  1.177  1.380   1.551    1.869    2.023   2.474
1    0.282  0.535  0.706  1.032   0.909    1.211    1.428   1.544
2    0.109  0.237  0.341  0.384   0.454    0.518    0.541   0.797


Using just 2003, there's a significant DISADVANTAGE to bunting in a "1st&2nd, 0 outs" situation:

1st&2nd, 0 outs: 1.551
2nd&3rd, 1 out: 1.211

If only Mariners manager Bob Brenly would learn this...



there ;-D gotta love the cafe ...
and thanks for the stats ....
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Postby biju » Sun Jun 27, 2004 5:42 pm

BobbyRoberto wrote:The grid of expected runs in an inning based on the outs and runner situation, originally developed by John Thorn and Pete Palmer in The Hidden Game of Baseball:

Runners
Outs None 1st 2nd 3rd 1st&2nd 1st&3rd 2nd&3rd Loaded
0 0.454 0.783 1.068 1.277 1.380 1.639 1.946 2.254
1 0.249 0.478 0.699 0.897 0.888 1.088 1.371 1.546
2 0.095 0.209 0.348 0.382 0.457 0.494 0.661 0.798

These numbers were used for years of data up to 1983, so Baseball Prospectus updated them using just last season, 2003:

Runners
Outs None 1st 2nd 3rd 1st&2nd 1st&3rd 2nd&3rd Loaded
0 0.531 0.919 1.177 1.380 1.551 1.869 2.023 2.474
1 0.282 0.535 0.706 1.032 0.909 1.211 1.428 1.544
2 0.109 0.237 0.341 0.384 0.454 0.518 0.541 0.797

Using just 2003, there's a significant DISADVANTAGE to bunting in a "1st&2nd, 0 outs" situation:

1st&2nd, 0 outs: 1.551
2nd&3rd, 1 out: 1.211

If only Mariners manager Bob Brenly would learn this...


Actually, the 2nd & 3rd with one out would be 1.428, right? And not to say Melvin is good (Brenly is AZ), but I don't mind him bunting like that with how many flyball hitters we currently have. Unless you've got Edgar on deck I say bunt them.

Of course, I suppose it would be best to side with the statistics but I can't believe these are accurate for every situation. There's a huge difference based on score, inning, and where they are in the order.
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