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Where's the critics?

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Where's the critics?

Postby jwhands » Fri Jun 25, 2004 12:26 pm

We're past the 1/3 point of the season, and I am looking for the critics on my busts list. Many of you wondered how the likes of Sexson, Webb, Giles, Mussina, Brown, J Lopez, and Gagne wound up on my list. I'm wondering where you're at now. Sexson is done for the season with a .233 AVG, Webb is struggling on a very bad team, Giles is out until July, Mussina is far from Cy Young, Brown is hurt again (as predicted), and J Lopez is far from showing the power from last season. Gagne is being his typical self, on pace for a 40 save season. However, I said that there would be closers available in the 10th round that will put up the same numbers. How about Joe Nathan, Armando Benitez, Francisco Cordero, and Eddie Guardado? There are, at this point of the season, some huge misses on my list, such as Randy Johnson and Mike Young (who should be on the All Star roster over Jeter, Nomar, and Tejada).

Here's the list:


American League

C Javy Lopez- Coming off a career/contract year = reality check this year. Projected: .305, 21 HR, 81 RBI.
1b David Ortiz- Those homers go back to being doubles this season. Projected: .300, 38 HR, 155 RBI.
2b Michael Young- I seriously don’t see this guy getting 200 hits this year. He’ll go back to being a mediocre second sacker. Projected: .331, 23 HR, 105 RBI, 14 SB, 240 Hits
3b Bill Mueller- He came from out of nowhere to lead the league in hitting. It’s only obvious that he will have a dip. I see him at around .280 and eventually becoming a platoon player. Projected: .261, 11 HR, 47 RBI. DL
SS Derek Jeter- I don’t see him sliding in average, but he will be affected by offensive production. I see him getting 12-15 hrs with 60-70 rbi’s. Nothing that I would spend a 1st-2nd round pick on. Projected: .256, 25 HR, 85 RBI.
OF Gary Sheffield- He won’t get the same numbers he got in Atlanta. He’ll get 30-100, but won’t hit the MVP type of numbers you expect. Projected: .301, 23 HR, 101 RBI.
OF Melvin Mora- He had a brilliant first half last season and wound up with a .317 average. He’ll be lucky to be in the .270s this year. Projected: .354, 27 HR, 103 RBI, 17 SB
OF Jose Guillen- Struggled against AL pitching last year. What would change things this year? Projected: .291, 27 HR, 117 RBI, 6 SB
SP Esteban Loaiza- He faded last season, and it will continue into this campaign. Projected: 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 16-7, 143 K
SP Mike Mussina- The injury bug will catch him this year. Projected: 4.58 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 18-9, 134 K
SP Jamie Moyer- They’re catching onto this old man. I see an ERA above 5. Projected: 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 13-7, 125 K.
SP Barry Zito- I hate putting him on this list because he is my favorite pitcher, but there’s a possibility of Zito having dead arm this year. Projected: 4.81 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 9-9, 162 K
SP Kevin Brown- It’s hard to dominate when you’re always on the DL. Age is catching up to him quickly. Projected: 4.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 16-2, 111 K. On DL until July.
RP Troy Percival- A degenerative hip condition will cause him to start to pass the reigns over to K-Rod. Projected: 5.09 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 27 Saves, 23 K. On DL
RP Keith Foulke- He’s going from the ultimate pitchers park to Fenway. By the end of the season, he could be splitting time in the closer role. Projected: 1.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 29 Saves, 4 BS, 68 K

National League

C Ramon Hernandez- Not the greatest hitter. He’ll dip to .250 this year, while maintaining 20 hrs. Projected: .266, 18 HR, 67 RBI. On DL.
1b Richie Sexson- The power numbers will drop because of the change in ballpark. He will get you around 30-35 hrs, with an average in the .260s. Projected: .233, 9 HR, 23 RBI. Out for season.
2b Marcus Giles- There’s nobody at this position that I could see as being a bust. However, I do see Giles’ power numbers drop from last season. Projected: .339, 12 HR, 70 RBI, 20 SB. On DL until July.
3b Mike Lowell- He will find a way to get hurt this season. He will be lucky to top 100 RBIs. Projected: .299, 36 HR, 101 RBI.
SS Kazuhiso Matsui- The pressure of New York will get to him. He has the speed and defense, but will struggle with the bat. This means little fantasy value. Projected: .253, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 22 SB
OF Barry Bonds- No roids=less production. Bonds is already making excuses for his possibility of lower power numbers here. I see limited Abs for him. He most likely will also see a stint on the DL. Projected: .357, 39 HR, 86 RBI, 6 SB.
OF Luis Gonzalez- He’ll be playing hurt all season. I don’t see him reaching either 30 HR or 100 RBI. Projected: .258, 13 HR, 45 RBI
OF Jim Edmonds- He’ll find a way to get hurt again. Projected: .272, 33 HR, 105 RBI, 4 SB
SP Josh Beckett- He had one amazing postseason, and now everyone thinks he’s Cy Young. He’ll be lucky to win 15. Projected: 3.86 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9-9, 175 K. On DL again.
SP David Wells- This cheeseburger needs to give it up already. Projected: 3.01 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 5-12, 70 K.
SP Randy Johnson- He’s starting to lose velocity, which means a better chance for hitters to make contact. His ERA will be above 4.50. Projected: 3.10 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 20-11, 272 K
SP Brandon Webb- I don’t see this guy being a dominating pitcher. Projected: 4.03 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6-15, 148 K.
SP Dontrelle Willis- Unorthodox delivery will give him arm problems. His velocity isn’t that great, and he doesn’t have great stuff to fool hitters. He’s going to have a rough sophomore outing. Projected: 4.03 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 13-11, 137 K.
RP Eric Gagne- People who draft this guy in the early rounds are making a huge mistake. He will get you saves, but won’t be as dominating as last year. I can find a closer in the 10th round that will give me the same numbers Projected: 1.74 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 41 Saves, 99 K.
RP Joe Borowski- Latroy Hawkins is taking his job over, so don’t even waste your time drafting Borowski. Projected: 8.02 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 9 Saves, 34 K. On DL.
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Re: Where's the critics?

Postby GiantFan666 » Fri Jun 25, 2004 3:52 pm

[quote="jwhands"]We're past the 1/3 point of the season, and I am looking for the critics on my busts list. Many of you wondered how the likes of Sexson, Webb, Giles, Mussina, Brown, J Lopez, and Gagne wound up on my list. I'm wondering where you're at now. Sexson is done for the season with a .233 AVG, Webb is struggling on a very bad team, Giles is out until July, Mussina is far from Cy Young, Brown is hurt again (as predicted), and J Lopez is far from showing the power from last season. Gagne is being his typical self, on pace for a 40 save season. However, I said that there would be closers available in the 10th round that will put up the same numbers. How about Joe Nathan, Armando Benitez, Francisco Cordero, and Eddie Guardado? There are, at this point of the season, some huge misses on my list, such as Randy Johnson and Mike Young (who should be on the All Star roster over Jeter, Nomar, and Tejada).

Here's the list:


American League

C Javy Lopez- Coming off a career/contract year = reality check this year. Projected: .305, 21 HR, 81 RBI.
1b David Ortiz- Those homers go back to being doubles this season. Projected: .300, 38 HR, 155 RBI.
2b Michael Young- I seriously don’t see this guy getting 200 hits this year. He’ll go back to being a mediocre second sacker. Projected: .331, 23 HR, 105 RBI, 14 SB, 240 Hits
3b Bill Mueller- He came from out of nowhere to lead the league in hitting. It’s only obvious that he will have a dip. I see him at around .280 and eventually becoming a platoon player. Projected: .261, 11 HR, 47 RBI. DL
SS Derek Jeter- I don’t see him sliding in average, but he will be affected by offensive production. I see him getting 12-15 hrs with 60-70 rbi’s. Nothing that I would spend a 1st-2nd round pick on. Projected: .256, 25 HR, 85 RBI.
OF Gary Sheffield- He won’t get the same numbers he got in Atlanta. He’ll get 30-100, but won’t hit the MVP type of numbers you expect. Projected: .301, 23 HR, 101 RBI.
OF Melvin Mora- He had a brilliant first half last season and wound up with a .317 average. He’ll be lucky to be in the .270s this year. Projected: .354, 27 HR, 103 RBI, 17 SB
OF Jose Guillen- Struggled against AL pitching last year. What would change things this year? Projected: .291, 27 HR, 117 RBI, 6 SB
SP Esteban Loaiza- He faded last season, and it will continue into this campaign. Projected: 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 16-7, 143 K
SP Mike Mussina- The injury bug will catch him this year. Projected: 4.58 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 18-9, 134 K
SP Jamie Moyer- They’re catching onto this old man. I see an ERA above 5. Projected: 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 13-7, 125 K.
SP Barry Zito- I hate putting him on this list because he is my favorite pitcher, but there’s a possibility of Zito having dead arm this year. Projected: 4.81 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 9-9, 162 K
SP Kevin Brown- It’s hard to dominate when you’re always on the DL. Age is catching up to him quickly. Projected: 4.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 16-2, 111 K. On DL until July.
RP Troy Percival- A degenerative hip condition will cause him to start to pass the reigns over to K-Rod. Projected: 5.09 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 27 Saves, 23 K. On DL
RP Keith Foulke- He’s going from the ultimate pitchers park to Fenway. By the end of the season, he could be splitting time in the closer role. Projected: 1.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 29 Saves, 4 BS, 68 K

National League

C Ramon Hernandez- Not the greatest hitter. He’ll dip to .250 this year, while maintaining 20 hrs. Projected: .266, 18 HR, 67 RBI. On DL.
1b Richie Sexson- The power numbers will drop because of the change in ballpark. He will get you around 30-35 hrs, with an average in the .260s. Projected: .233, 9 HR, 23 RBI. Out for season.
2b Marcus Giles- There’s nobody at this position that I could see as being a bust. However, I do see Giles’ power numbers drop from last season. Projected: .339, 12 HR, 70 RBI, 20 SB. On DL until

July.
3b Mike Lowell- He will find a way to get hurt this season. He will be lucky to top 100 RBIs. Projected: .299, 36 HR, 101 RBI.
SS Kazuhiso Matsui- The pressure of New York will get to him. He has the speed and defense, but will struggle with the bat. This means little fantasy value. Projected: .253, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 22 SB
OF Barry Bonds- No roids=less production. Bonds is already making excuses for his possibility of lower power numbers here. I see limited Abs for him. He most likely will also see a stint on the DL. Projected: .357, 39 HR, 86 RBI, 6 SB.
OF Luis Gonzalez- He’ll be playing hurt all season. I don’t see him reaching either 30 HR or 100 RBI. Projected: .258, 13 HR, 45 RBI
OF Jim Edmonds- He’ll find a way to get hurt again. Projected: .272, 33 HR, 105 RBI, 4 SB
SP Josh Beckett- He had one amazing postseason, and now everyone thinks he’s Cy Young. He’ll be lucky to win 15. Projected: 3.86 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9-9, 175 K. On DL again.
SP David Wells- This cheeseburger needs to give it up already. Projected: 3.01 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 5-12, 70 K.
SP Randy Johnson- He’s starting to lose velocity, which means a better chance for hitters to make contact. His ERA will be above 4.50. Projected: 3.10 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 20-11, 272 K
SP Brandon Webb- I don’t see this guy being a dominating pitcher. Projected: 4.03 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6-15, 148 K.
SP Dontrelle Willis- Unorthodox delivery will give him arm problems. His velocity isn’t that great, and he doesn’t have great stuff to fool hitters. He’s going to have a rough sophomore outing. Projected: 4.03 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 13-11, 137 K.
RP Eric Gagne- People who draft this guy in the early rounds are making a huge mistake. He will get you saves, but won’t be as dominating as last year. I can find a closer in the 10th round that will give me the same numbers Projected: 1.74 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 41 Saves, 99 K.
RP Joe Borowski- Latroy Hawkins is taking his job over, so don’t even waste your time drafting Borowski. Projected: 8.02 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 9 Saves, 34 K. On DL.[/quote

Is this supposed to be your bust list?? With the exception of a couple players here and there as well as any of the injured players I would be happy w/ the production your predicting on any of those players... Not sure you could qualify Ortiz as a bust if he gets to your projected totals of 38 hrs and 155 rbi... I would take a roster full of those busts :-D ... Where are the projections coming from? Are they yours or a sampling from different fantasy sources?
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Postby Tavish » Fri Jun 25, 2004 5:14 pm

Is this supposed to be your bust list?? With the exception of a couple players here and there as well as any of the injured players I would be happy w/ the production your predicting on any of those players... Not sure you could qualify Ortiz as a bust if he gets to your projected totals of 38 hrs and 155 rbi... I would take a roster full of those busts ... Where are the projections coming from? Are they yours or a sampling from different fantasy sources?

I looked at the list and the projections kind of funny at first too. But I think the projections are what the players are actually projected at finishing the season at, not what his preseason projections were. Its alot like many bust lists. Some pan out some don't, baseball has a regressesion to the mena so if you pick a player who puts up gawdy numbers this year, chances are he won't do the same next year.
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