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Rivera = Cy Young

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Postby donut » Wed Jun 23, 2004 12:11 am

HOOTIE wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote:Hootie, enlighten us on how so far, Vlad isnt the guaranteed AL MVP? The guy is a hitting machine!


Guaranteed? Slam dunk?

No one said Vlad isn't a hitting machine. I already mentioned Arod/Vlad/Manny are within 2 win shares of each other. But since Vlad is the easy winner, please explain why Manny leads the AL in OPS?
Runs Created?
RC/27?


OPS

Manny 1.093
Vlad 1.008
Arod .940

Lets look at runs created

Manny 64
Vlad 62
Arod 57

Let's look at RC/27

Manny 9.75
Vlad 8.84
Arod 7.82

As far as Vlad leading in rbis, he should,

Vlad 136 abs with runners on
Arod 116
Manny 115

Vlad 80 abs withy RISP
Arod 59
Manny 64



Frankly, Manny has been the best hitter in AL. The reason the total runs created is that close, is Vlad has the most abs of the 3. Vlad is in the hunt, and may win. But he is no way a lock, guaranteed slam dunk. Average doesn't show much of the big picture. Rbis are team dependent. Frankly, i would vote Manny at this point myself.

what's rc/27?
i agree that manny's rbi's and runs are not totally in his control but how else are you gonna rate an MVP candidate? it has to be those main offensive cats. like rbi's runs avg hmrs....not ops, walks, or hbp. as of right now vlad is by far better in the main offensive cats.
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Postby warrick95 » Wed Jun 23, 2004 12:11 am

Is Mulder over Schill for Cy Young that much of a lock at this point...considering current stats? Really not that much different in my opinion.
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Postby Melo255 » Wed Jun 23, 2004 12:21 am

donut wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote:
quote]
what's rc/27?
i agree that manny's rbi's and runs are not totally in his control but how else are you gonna rate an MVP candidate? it has to be those main offensive cats. like rbi's runs avg hmrs....not ops, walks, or hbp. as of right now vlad is by far better in the main offensive cats.


If walks and ops shouldn't count towards MVP then Barry Bonds wouldn't even be considered for a second with his 80-90 rbis. It's a combination of all offensive categories that determine MVP from runs and rbis to ops and run shares. The teams record comes into play as does the competition the player has faced and to a much much lesser degree the players defense. Offensive categories always determine MVP because...well...it's true what they say, chicks dig the long ball.
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Postby Tavish » Wed Jun 23, 2004 12:22 am

donut wrote:what's rc/27?
i agree that manny's rbi's and runs are not totally in his control but how else are you gonna rate an MVP candidate? it has to be those main offensive cats. like rbi's runs avg hmrs....not ops, walks, or hbp. as of right now vlad is by far better in the main offensive cats.


Runs Created per 27 outs, it is a metric to see how many a player contributes per game. I think you pretty much nailed why the big 3 stats are not great indicators of how valuable a player is. RBI's are very much team/situational dependant. HR's and average only measure small parts of how much a player contributes to a team. ops is still one of the best measures both in terms of accuracy and simplicty. I'm not at all a big fan of RC or Win Shares( I think ERP or linear weights is more accurate) but they are much better indicators of a players contributions.

All that said, I don't know how many of the voters actually look at any of these stats and simply vote on what the Big 3 say.
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Postby slomo007 » Wed Jun 23, 2004 12:24 am

Tavish wrote:Not only would it take an inhuman season by the closer, it also takes unspectacular years by the rest of league's starting pitching. Mulder, Schilling, Hudson, Lee, and maybe even Rogers would get my nod over any AL closer right now.


Cliff Lee or Kenny Rogers over Mariano Rivera??!! I agree there are more deserving pitchers in the AL than Rivera, but Cliff Lee and Rogers are not them. ;-)
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Jun 23, 2004 12:25 am

donut wrote:what's rc/27?
i agree that manny's rbi's and runs are not totally in his control but how else are you gonna rate an MVP candidate? it has to be those main offensive cats. like rbi's runs avg hmrs....not ops, walks, or hbp. as of right now vlad is by far better in the main offensive cats.


RC/27 is Runs Created per 27 outs. It basically takes the runs created, and converts them to what a lineup of 9 of those players would score.

Runs created as several formulas, but the simple one is

(H+W)*(TB)/(ABS+W).

Rbis, average, runs, hrs aren't the main offensive catergories. Not in evaluating players anyways. Two are team dependent (runs/rbis), that has chances as the leading factor in who gets the most, and two (hrs/avg), that only show a part of the equation.

Last year PWilson had 141 rbis, Bonds 90. Bonds was far the better player.
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Postby Tavish » Wed Jun 23, 2004 12:30 am

slomo007 wrote:
Tavish wrote:Not only would it take an inhuman season by the closer, it also takes unspectacular years by the rest of league's starting pitching. Mulder, Schilling, Hudson, Lee, and maybe even Rogers would get my nod over any AL closer right now.


Cliff Lee or Kenny Rogers over Mariano Rivera??!! I agree there are more deserving pitchers in the AL than Rivera, but Cliff Lee and Rogers are not them. ;-)


You can take that as my opinion on how "valuable" I think closers really are. ;-) I would give Rivera the nod over Washburn though if thats any consolation.
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Postby WhiteHot » Wed Jun 23, 2004 12:52 am

HOOTIE wrote:
donut wrote:what's rc/27?
i agree that manny's rbi's and runs are not totally in his control but how else are you gonna rate an MVP candidate? it has to be those main offensive cats. like rbi's runs avg hmrs....not ops, walks, or hbp. as of right now vlad is by far better in the main offensive cats.


RC/27 is Runs Created per 27 outs. It basically takes the runs created, and converts them to what a lineup of 9 of those players would score.

Runs created as several formulas, but the simple one is

(H+W)*(TB)/(ABS+W).

Rbis, average, runs, hrs aren't the main offensive catergories. Not in evaluating players anyways. Two are team dependent (runs/rbis), that has chances as the leading factor in who gets the most, and two (hrs/avg), that only show a part of the equation.

Last year PWilson had 141 rbis, Bonds 90. Bonds was far the better player.


Cool. Let's make up some more arbitrary stats to fuel your side of the argument! How about Pitcher Frustration Created/9? I'll call it PFC/9 for short. It's how much frustration you create for the opposing pitcher over 9 innings. Vlad is leading the league! He's the MVP! OMG!
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Jun 23, 2004 1:30 am

WhiteHot wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
donut wrote:what's rc/27?
i agree that manny's rbi's and runs are not totally in his control but how else are you gonna rate an MVP candidate? it has to be those main offensive cats. like rbi's runs avg hmrs....not ops, walks, or hbp. as of right now vlad is by far better in the main offensive cats.


RC/27 is Runs Created per 27 outs. It basically takes the runs created, and converts them to what a lineup of 9 of those players would score.

Runs created as several formulas, but the simple one is

(H+W)*(TB)/(ABS+W).

Rbis, average, runs, hrs aren't the main offensive catergories. Not in evaluating players anyways. Two are team dependent (runs/rbis), that has chances as the leading factor in who gets the most, and two (hrs/avg), that only show a part of the equation.

Last year PWilson had 141 rbis, Bonds 90. Bonds was far the better player.


Cool. Let's make up some more arbitrary stats to fuel your side of the argument! How about Pitcher Frustration Created/9? I'll call it PFC/9 for short. It's how much frustration you create for the opposing pitcher over 9 innings. Vlad is leading the league! He's the MVP! OMG!



Sarcasm to make your point? Yea, i was bored today and made these up. Sorry to bore you. I can see you don't like looking past point A. Can't learn nothing with that attitude.
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Postby Urge » Wed Jun 23, 2004 1:45 am

Here's what I think the baseball writers would look at:

Vlad is the only AL guy top 5 in AVG, HR, RBI.
Manny has 2 more homers than Vlad but is lower in the others but a good margin.

Until they change the triple crown from using the big 3 it won't matter how many obscure stats Manny beats him in, Vlad will still be the MVP.
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