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closers, leads and roto strategy -- please help

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closers, leads and roto strategy -- please help

Postby great gretzky » Fri Jun 18, 2004 10:41 am

This isn't a specifif trade question, but a strategy question that involves trading.

I have a 25 save lead over the next closest competitor in a ten team league.

the standings are: 75, 55, 53, 47, 45,36, 30, 14, 13,8

I currently have graves, f. cordero, smoltz (I just traded way Isiringhausen to the team with 45 saves -- he also has rivera, urbina, herges -- so he could knock down the teams ahead of him who are nipping at my heels.

Can I safely trade another closer and keep the lead? and more specifically, can I trade a closer to the team who has 36 saves? that would give him probably graves or cordero, wagner, dotel and julio. Can I be caught if I keep two closers? there are still the lesser ones on the wire like baez etc that I could get in a pinch I think.

I ask because my IP is getting up there, and want to trade a closer for a sheilds or otsuka or someone. I have lidge too. I figure it is pointless to keep building on a huge lead, time to focus elsewhere.

I figure 25 saves is like having another closer for the back half so keeping two, plus the lead would be like having three closers. is this an accurate assumption? or am I setting myself up for a mistake?
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Postby great gretzky » Fri Jun 18, 2004 12:31 pm

is this just a dumb question? can someone help me?
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Postby Euclid » Fri Jun 18, 2004 12:51 pm

Are you in a league where you have to play all your players? If i were in your position i would still sit on 3 closers since more than half of the season is left and you never know about injuries especially with a guy like smoltz
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jun 18, 2004 1:41 pm

Since there are perfectly fine closers like Baez on your WW I would absolutely trade one of yours if you can get good value.
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Re: closers, leads and roto strategy -- please help

Postby matmat » Fri Jun 18, 2004 2:14 pm

great gretzky wrote:the standings are: 75, 55, 53, 47, 45,36, 30, 14, 13,8

I currently have graves, f. cordero, smoltz (I just traded way Isiringhausen to the team with 45 saves -- he also has rivera, urbina, herges


let's do some math.
40% of the season is gone. assuming the other people behind you don't get their paws on more closers, you are going to end up with the following numbers of saves (assuming constant production):

___. 137, 132,117, ___, ___, 75,35, 32, 20

the three blanks are you and the two guys you will have traded away your closers to. if you trade away 33 saves... (19 from cordero and 14 from izzy and they continue on the same pace, as does graves (unlinely...)) then the 45 save guy will end up with
133 saves and the 36 save guy would end up with 118 saves... you, however, would end up with 157 if you trade away izzy and cordero and pick up baez.

i.e. the blanks get filled in with 157, 133 and 118, respectively. (assuming constant production and no changes... ) however, if any of the teams behind you trade for a closer or wisen up and pick up baez, (or any of the other closers that are avaialable) you might be in trouble.

hope that helps.
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Postby Arlo » Fri Jun 18, 2004 2:20 pm

Twenty saves isn't a huge lead; an injury to one of your guys, and things start to look tight again. I'd grab Baez now, and then follow Cornbread's advice and look for a trade (although I wouldn't be looking for MR in return).
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Postby great gretzky » Fri Jun 18, 2004 2:35 pm

thanks.

the problem is only some of the teams value the closers appropriately. We switched from points to roto this year, so I think some poeple are holding out for that.

put it this way, bonds and smoltz pre season was not enough for albert.

so it is hard to say what you can get back. I think they know too much about real baseball and not enough about fantasy to be honest.

actually the lead is27.

I should add that we have small rosters, so it would be hard for teams to trade for too many closers.



I will stand pat then for now.
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