Determining Luck in H2H - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Determining Luck in H2H

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Determining Luck in H2H

Postby Absolutely Adequate » Tue Jun 15, 2004 6:39 am

There's been a lot of talk in my H2H league about the role that luck plays in the league. One guy says that the entire game is luck (the guy that's losing big) and just about everyone else thinks that there is no luck involved. I fall somewhere in the middle.

So I decided to come up with a way to determine luck thus far - though obviously not a fullproof method. I've decided to look at each match-up from the first 10 weeks and keep track of how many times that each team lost a category by one point (or .005 in the case of the percentages). Then I'd also keep track of the number of times that team won those categories by the same number.

Does this sound like a good method to determine which team has been the luckiest, so far? Any suggestions?

thanks
Absolutely Adequate
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 5000
Joined: 6 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Not here.

Postby matmat » Tue Jun 15, 2004 6:51 am

i don't know about your method, but the one I would want to choose is the following:

for each weak and each category see how many managaers a particular manager has beaten.
(this should take care, of say, the 50-48 loss in runs when everyone else has scored less than 30...)
Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day, teach a man to fish and he'll drown because you forgot to teach him to swim.
[url=http://www.indra.com/8ball/front.html]Invaluable Fantasy Baseball Resource[/url]
matmat
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4120
Joined: 12 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: North cross down

That will work..

Postby PacmanJr » Tue Jun 15, 2004 11:56 am

CBS tracks your record and your record versus everybody every week. Example: I score 300 to beat my opponent. My record is 1-0. However, everybody else in the ten team league scored more than me. My overall record is 1-8. It tracks that all season. Compare the teams actual win percentage with his overall win percentage. If the team is way in the positive, meaning his actual win% is a lot higher than his overall win%, then I would suspect that team has some luck.
PacmanJr
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 475
Joined: 10 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: ATX

Postby AKhomebrewer » Tue Jun 15, 2004 12:02 pm

There is some luck involved in the scheduling; you can only hope it evens out. One year it seemed I constantly had the second-best numbers each week, and was always playing the top scorer. :-/ This year, I've managed to sneak out a couple wins with lame weeks because I got into somebody that was even softer. :-°
AKhomebrewer
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 3240
Joined: 4 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Offshore

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Jun 15, 2004 12:31 pm

AA - Im sure that being in a H2H catagory based league is a lot harder to look at luck than a H2H points based league like CBS offers.

Here is what I would do if I had the time and desire to do it: determine the average for a week for every team for every catagory. You can then go back and look at the matchups to determine if a team was playing above or below their average for that week, and likewise how their competition for the week did as well. Measure up each teams average against the rest of the teams actual for each week to give a aggregate w-l-t record for each team. Then measure that aggregate total to the actual standing for each team. This should give you a good idea which teams in your league are the luckiest.

I hope I explained that correctly.
Image
Cornbread Maxwell
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertPick 3 ChampionSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5694
Joined: 7 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby LionsandTigersOhMy » Tue Jun 15, 2004 12:54 pm

The breakdown option on CBS does it well.It shows what your record would be verse all teams week by week.

Example: If you score 296 and win but everyone else in your league scored 300 or more.You would be 1 and 9 verse the 10 teams in the league.It keeps track of this all season too.So if the next week you win with 450 and everyone else has 300.You would be 10 and 0 that week.

Personally I think luck has a ton to do with it.In one CBS league I am 8 and 2 but only have the 6th highest point total.The guy with the worst record has the most points scored total!

In another league I am in there I am 7 and 3 and have the highest point total.In the points format so many variables exist to determine whether you win or lose.

My lineup last week

Wilson Javy
Lee Feliz
Boone Loretta
Nomar Renteria
Lowell Beltre
Beltran Lawton
Dye Sanders
Carlos Lee Bautista
Palmeiro Mora
Oswalt Foulke
Colon Wright
Rivera Vazquez
Benitez Webb
Jerome Williams Penny
Sheets Wilson
Armas Escobar

I am the points leader and in first place yet this guy picks up his first win verse me.He had his best week of the year!On paper my team blows his away!2 start pitchers hot hitters and save chances all amount to having no control over whether you win or lose.You can put the best team out there every week but if you catch people at a bad time you will lose!
Image
LionsandTigersOhMy
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 798
Joined: 22 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Flint, Michigan

Re: Determining Luck in H2H

Postby josebach » Tue Jun 15, 2004 1:43 pm

Absolutely Adequate wrote:One guy says that the entire game is luck (the guy that's losing big) and just about everyone else thinks that there is no luck involved.


http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... hp?t=70063

That's not true. According to this poll, only 15% think that there is no luck involved. If this poll is an accurate sample, this means that 15% of fantasy baseball players are full of it. :-)
josebach
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2036
Joined: 27 Aug 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Tallahassee

Postby strats36 » Tue Jun 15, 2004 1:44 pm

I think some luck is involved. It's a bit like gambling. But you can increase your odds by doing some homework.

Last week in H2H I faced a guy who was averaging 2 wins a week with 4 losses. I thought I had a chance. He went 6 and 1! His best week yet. Is that luck? I'd have to say some was involved. His pitchers got some good match ups and there wasn't anything I could do about it.
strats36
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 209
Joined: 29 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Determining Luck in H2H

Postby Absolutely Adequate » Tue Jun 15, 2004 3:31 pm

josebach wrote:
Absolutely Adequate wrote:One guy says that the entire game is luck (the guy that's losing big) and just about everyone else thinks that there is no luck involved.


http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... hp?t=70063

That's not true. According to this poll, only 15% think that there is no luck involved. If this poll is an accurate sample, this means that 15% of fantasy baseball players are full of it. :-)


I meant everyone else in the league came down on the little-to-no-luck-involved side of things. Myself? I'm not sure.

But thank you all for the suggestions. Cornbread - since it's the summer, I should be able to fit some number crunching into my schedule. Thanks.
Absolutely Adequate
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 5000
Joined: 6 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Not here.

Postby GucciBaseballs » Tue Jun 15, 2004 4:54 pm

i think it might also be interesting to add up everybodies total stats and see where everyone ranks on a roto standpoint. I think everybody agrees that there is no luck in the roto format of scoring.
"I am ready to meet my Maker. Whether my Maker is prepared for the great ordeal of meeting me is another matter."
- Sir Winston Churchill
GucciBaseballs
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 390
Joined: 12 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Monument Park

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact