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Is Fantasy Baseball More Luck or Strategy?

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Is fantasy baseball more luck or strategy?

Primarily luck, a little strategy (that's why I'm losing)
1
1%
Slightly more luck than strategy
14
18%
50-50 between luck and strategy
16
21%
Slightly more strategy than luck
34
44%
I've made it a precise science (that's why I'm winning)
12
16%
 
Total votes : 77

Postby quickfingerz » Sat Jun 12, 2004 1:56 pm

When I win, it's strategy...

when I lose, it's just bad luck (or just injuries)...

I oppose to a previous statement:

in H2H there is far more strategy (especially with a big bench ie: yahoo leagues)... suppose I'm down on stolen bases but well up on every other hitting stat, I can pick up 4 hitters who can run and try to tie or beat my opponent. so you can have pretty decent control of wins, K's, and SB's.

There's also a thing I call "non-illegal roster churning"; when I need wins or K's, I pick up a decent starting pitcher for the next day but I won't drop him until 1 or 2 days before his next start so no one else can pick him up.
The key to Fantasy Sports is NOT about Sports but rather the "manipulation of numbers" in your favor

MASTER THOSE NUMBERS
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Postby Lofunzo » Sat Jun 12, 2004 1:58 pm

It depends on the league type. H2H definitely involves more luck.
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Postby PresHabib » Sun Jun 13, 2004 9:51 am

quickfingerz wrote:When I win, it's strategy...

when I lose, it's just bad luck (or just injuries)...

I oppose to a previous statement:

in H2H there is far more strategy (especially with a big bench ie: yahoo leagues)... suppose I'm down on stolen bases but well up on every other hitting stat, I can pick up 4 hitters who can run and try to tie or beat my opponent. so you can have pretty decent control of wins, K's, and SB's.

There's also a thing I call "non-illegal roster churning"; when I need wins or K's, I pick up a decent starting pitcher for the next day but I won't drop him until 1 or 2 days before his next start so no one else can pick him up.


2 things. One, I think loading up on guys to win a category is cheap, I equate that to spot starting/quantity over quality, about which we had a 15 page thread earlier. i think you draft a team that you think will win most of the categories in a week and, for the most part, stick with it. Two, how is that pitching strategy different than churning?
Rest in peace Mitch Hedberg. I name my fantasy team "Buoyancy of Citrus", in your honor.
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Postby Scarlett » Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:27 am

Fantasy baseball is like gambling: a rookie always stands a shot at winning, but those who take calculated risks and make methodical and well thought out moves will win a majority of the time over a long sample period. Smart players take calculated risks and make moves with the greatest chance of succeeding over time. They still lose sometimes, but if you play the odds a smart person will ultimately succeed more often than not.
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Postby PresHabib » Sun Jun 13, 2004 3:00 pm

Scarlett wrote:Fantasy baseball is like gambling: a rookie always stands a shot at winning, but those who take calculated risks and make methodical and well thought out moves will win a majority of the time over a long sample period. Smart players take calculated risks and make moves with the greatest chance of succeeding over time. They still lose sometimes, but if you play the odds a smart person will ultimately succeed more often than not.


Nice first post! ;-D
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Postby blankman » Sun Jun 13, 2004 3:46 pm

PresHabib wrote:
Scarlett wrote:Fantasy baseball is like gambling: a rookie always stands a shot at winning, but those who take calculated risks and make methodical and well thought out moves will win a majority of the time over a long sample period. Smart players take calculated risks and make moves with the greatest chance of succeeding over time. They still lose sometimes, but if you play the odds a smart person will ultimately succeed more often than not.


Nice first post! ;-D


seconded ;-D

Welcome Scarlett ;-D
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Postby softballjenny » Sun Jun 13, 2004 4:02 pm

I think that it's 50% Luck and 50% Strategy. If you get drafted a really bad team - Bad Luck. Yet, you can turn it around a little bit with some strategy. It's a bit of both!
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Postby PresHabib » Sun Jun 13, 2004 5:28 pm

softballjenny wrote:I think that it's 50% Luck and 50% Strategy. If you get drafted a really bad team - Bad Luck. Yet, you can turn it around a little bit with some strategy. It's a bit of both!


That's why you should do live drafts. I had a league that was autodrafted last year and it sucked, but the teams I've drafted I've had fun with.
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