Is Fantasy Baseball More Luck or Strategy?

[NZF]

Definitely luck plays a part, but more in H2H than roto.

It takes more than just good luck to win a competitive league.

Draft day is important but not as important as people think. It's what you do after the draft until the end of the season that makes the difference between winning and being just an also run.

[thehat]

Luck is always a factor, but skill is what gets it done in the long run.

[Jack-In-A-Box]

I voted slightly more luck probably because of whats going on this week alone more. My pitchers ERA for the week is .89, whip is .98, in 31IP. I've gotten 2 wins,2svs. This isnt including what T.Hudson has going for me tonight.. but so far so good. Anyway.. the guy I'm playing..and currently losing to ERA is 5.91,whip 1.22, 35IP has 4wins,3saves. So he's gotten lucky that even though his pitchers are pitching like dogcrap, he's getting the run support that my pitchers can't buy. Not to mention I lead the league in points and I'm 5th in rankings has got me slightly buggin to.

[Quaker]

Sure luck plays a part. Over short periods of time, standings may be completely random. However, as observations increase, you'll see the people who know what they're doing at the top more often than not.

That is, in any one season, a rookie with no clue may win the league, but over many years and many leagues, you'll the people who know what they're doing have a better track record.

To me, it's similar to poker. In any one hand, the winner may be the lucky guy with a flush. However, over a tournament, or a string of tournaments, you'll see the people who are good appear over and over again. Look as the World Series of Poker. Sure, an amateur might win the tournament once in a while, but look at the final 20 guys- the same ones are there every year.

[stomperrob]

To quote A.J. Foyt: "The harder I work, the luckier I get".

[ironman]

I run a 20 team H2H league on Yahoo. While I'm not saying luck doesn't play a role at all, I also don't think its mere coincidence that the same managers generally gravitate to the top of the standings or the bottom of the standings each season.

[wkelly91]

I don't think luck will move you up...only down through injuries. It takes skill to win and those who are skilled consistantly win, except when mowed down by injuries.

[PresHabib]

I think bad luck has a much greater shot at helping you lose a league than does good luck have a shot at helping you win a league. I also think that luck is applied differently in roto and h2h. In fact, the best week I've had offensively over the 4 teams I've ever done came a few weeks ago in a H2H league, but I lose 8-1 because the guy had 13 runs, 8 homers, 26 rbi, 3 SB, and a 490something avg. on the saturday night and crushed me. Meanwhile I've had weeks where i've won offensively because the other guy has just had an awful week. However, i consider these examples exceptions to the rule, rather than the rule. More often than not, the best team with the best managing will win. In roto, teams won't be vicimtimized by the same kind of luck thats present in H2H leagues. The team that is drafted best should always win.

Obviously there are exceptions. One is 2003 Pat Burrel, but the biggest is injuries. One kid in one of my leagues has sosa, marcus giles, richie sexson, bill mueller ANNND 3 of their 4 REPLACEMENTS on the DL right now. Thats just crappy luck and luck will effect him more than others. I still think though that the best managers should be able to manage themselves around injuries and thats how you remove luck from the equation. I have Nomar, Garret Anderson, and Kerry Wood and I've managed to keep myself only a half game out in my H2H league because I've made good deals at good times and the chances I've taken have paid off when I've played the matchups right. Now my guys are healthy and I'm poised to grasp the lead which is rightfully mine!

Basically it just comes down to...luck is present but you can get around it if you research enough and respond in good fashion and timing to your injuries. You can also be successful by not drafting proven injury-prone players like Kevin Brown (d'oh) to minimize the chances that luck will attack you.

So theres my answer. I've got more to say but I want to get out and enjoy the day!

[KolbSaves]

to paraphrase Machiavelli "luck is needed to gain opportunity but skill is required to capitalize on it"

[Yikes]

to paraphrase Machiavelli "luck is needed to gain opportunity but skill is required to capitalize on it"

nice quote