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What is wrong with Renteria?

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Postby rmeesig » Wed Jun 09, 2004 1:43 am

Bronson - Give me a break. I didn't "grossly misconstrue" anything, I simply compared apples to apples by using CAREER stats - YOU compared Tejada to Renteria, and said he was a top tier fantasy player & Edgar was not. I simply proved that comparison wrong by comparing 4 different CAREER offensive stats to show you they are actually very similar players. They simply excel in different catagories to reach similar overall numbers.

I don't see where anyone in this thread has had "lofty expectations" on Edgar. The thread starter was questioning why Edgar has gotten off to a slow start - to which you can't possibly argue. Sure he may not hit .330 again, but he's currently at .261/.672 - lower than his career numbers. A fair inquiry based on his career history.

I just read a good article where Rolen said something about how Edgar is hitting the ball harder, and making better contact then anyone on the team...unfortunately, it's usually right AT someone. Jeter did the same thing in Apr/May and he seems to be getting back on track.
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Postby BronsonPinchot » Wed Jun 09, 2004 1:56 am

You didn't prove the comparison wrong. You didn't even try to. OBP, SLG, and OPS aren't fantasy stats (at least in 5 cat leagues, which is what I'm going by). Average is, and you are correct, Renteria is likely to hit for a higher average than Tejada. But not higher to the point of making as good a fantasy player as Tejada when you factor in other FANTASY categories. What you did was take random batting stats (important ones, of course, but non-fantasy ones) and apply them while comparing the potential fantasy performance of two players. And you did misconstrue it. I used (tried to, at least, I can see that I'm having trouble communicating with you) slugging percentage and homers to illustrate why Renteria needs a career year to approach the FANTASY numbers that Tejada will have in an average season.

You make a good point about them being stronger in different categories (ie, Renteria having the advantage in AVE and SB). The thing is, Renteria doesn't usually excel in average. He just excels in it during career years. And its effect on RBI and R is signficant (he lacks the homer power period). One of the posters above put it effectively and succinctly. He said something along the lines of Renteria giving you one category out of five as a top round pick. (mind you, I do understand that in some year's he'll give you the high average). Thats simply not a good pick.

Anyways, you are right, the original point of the thread wasn't what i've been talking about, I usurped it somewhere along the way, perhaps mainly because some posters a while up chriticized my challenge of Renteria being a good player. And theres no reason Renteria shouldn't pick it up later this season. He's a lot better than a .260 hitter. But at the same time, theres no reason for him to replicate (or even come close) to last year's numbers. (and I'm not saying that you think he will...I guess thats just what I was trying to point out initially).
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Postby rmeesig » Wed Jun 09, 2004 2:06 am

oh yeah? well my dad can beat up your dad! ;-)

I think your comment about Edgar not being a top tier FANTASY player is where I lost you. He's obviously one of the best overall in the game, but as I've found out this year, Fantasy is a whole different game. Sometimes I forget that this place is a discussion for Fantasy baseball, and not the real thing. You are right, SLG, OPS and OBP are not typical Fantasy cats, but they ARE more accurate in determining the overall effectiveness of a player over AVG and individual stats (HR, SB, etc) - wouldn't you agree?

Hopefully Rolen's ridiculous performance rubs off a little on Edgar, or at least takes a little pressure off of him. I think it already has a little, as I mentioned before, he is knocking the crap out of the ball, just happens to hit it at someone all the time.
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Postby BronsonPinchot » Wed Jun 09, 2004 2:13 am

Yup, OPS and the others are key stats that you look at if you're building a real team. Renteria is also a gold glove shortstop, so he brings a lot to the table...
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Postby wrveres » Wed Jun 09, 2004 2:20 am

did I mention there has many battles over this very subject ...

Is sent up just a few :-)

sometimes its best to agree to disagree ...

besides everybody knows that Renteria is way better than Jeter ;-)
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:08 am

Bronson, give it up. Miggy will hit for more power, Edgar will have a better BA, more SB's, more runs. IMO Renteria will blow Miggy away in SB's, and will be close in R and RBI. The only place that Miggy has a big advantage is HR. They're both good SS's though.

When a player consistently improves his game, like Renteria has, a bad start like this does not mean that his best years are behind him. He's always been a big-time basestealer, and will probably get at least 30 this year. That alone makes him almost as valuable as Tejada. Then you factor in all those R and RBI he'll have. As bad as he's been, he's still on pace for 90 R (he has more R than Tejada despite batting 6th with a much worse BA - wait till he plays like himself). I think he'll hit at least .300 from here on out, meaning his season average will be about .285 at the end of this year. I would still rather have him than Tejada or Jeter. Maybe even Nomar if you take into account his injury concerns, and rustiness. In fact, so far he's not even that far behind Tejada in fantasy value, despite his .260 BA. He has more R, much more SB, less HR, less RBI, and a lower BA. But the SB's he has make up fo the BA and HR loss, IMO. Other than A-Rod there's not other SS I'd rather have this year. I said that before the year, and I still believe it.
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Postby Bukoski77 » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:33 am

Very concise and convinceing argument Jackal, but I have to disagree.

Unless steals are going to decide your league, Miggy is the better player for the year IMHO. Camden Yards has historicaly helped HR #'s but hurt players with Tejada's makeup in the AVE department.

After a cold start to the year Tejada has already brought his AVE up to well above what was expected in that park and is among the league leaders in RBI's. Miggy as seen throughout his career stats has really heated it up and gone on fire during the 2nd half of the season, particularly in the HR department, which his homepark is conducive to.

He wont be overly impressive in steals but should still finish with around 6-10 SB's with possibly a couple more than that. Rentaria will probably finish a little bit ahead bye years end in the runs scored department, but not bye much. Tejada has stuck with the #3 hitting spot for most of the year where as Renteria has been used mostly in the lower half of the batting order at around the 6th spot. I believe year to date as of now, Renteria has only scored one more run than Tejada.

Takeing into account Tejada's 2nd half history along with performing well ahead of Renteria in almost every category this year, 5 more HR's, 21 more RBI's, .50 higher batting AVE, 11 more Hits, and (very slight I acknowledge) 4 more Walks, I just dont see how you can predict Renteria to be more productive for the remainder of the year with just one more run scored in his favor, and yes this is significant 8 SB's to Tejada's 0.

Correct me if I'm wrong but didnt Renteria have a career year in 2003 along with much stonger 1st 1/2 splits as oppossed to over the the 2nd 1/2 of the year?
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:45 am

Last year Renteria did just about as well in the second half as he did in the first half. But he was a bit bewtter in the first half. Nothing significant enough to consider. Keep in mind I'm going by halves, not AS break which is relatively close to the end of the year.

If Renteria keeps batting .260 with low RBIs, yes, Tejada will probably be more valuable. But like I said, I think Renteria will hit at least .300 from here on out, which is also what I'd expect from Tejada. I think he'll get a more R than Tejada, a lot more SBs, lower RBI, but not by a lot, and obviously lower HR. Lets call BA, R, and RBI a wash overall. Then it comes down to HR and SB. Renteria's 20 SB's he'll get from here on out will help a lot more than Tejada's 20 HR's. Which is how I come to my conclusion.

So to be "concise", I'm not projecting the current stats over the course of the year, I'm projecting what I think will happen. And I think Renteria will be better than Tejada in 3 cats (not in overall stats, but in stats from here on out, which is what matters obviously).
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Postby Bukoski77 » Wed Jun 09, 2004 5:09 am

Cool beans man. I think from here on out, Tejada will maintaine a .10-.20 points higher AVE than Renteria. As well as handidly beating him in RBI's, HR's, basically tie in runs, and lose bye 12-15 in SB's.

We are obviously predicting different production from the two from here on out. Thats why we are both fantasy baseball junkies :-D . I based my pre/post all star point splits on a rough percentage per amount of at-bats (lol, a rough estimate in my head of the percentages, close but not exact) - although less games played, Renteria's SB per at bat, RBI per at bat, and HR per at bat all took a noticeable drop, although not too drastic. His AVE and Runs per at bat did stay consistent though.

Agree to disagree as we will see how it all ends up at years end ;-D . Thanks for staying civil with me as we dont agree on these two SS's, and btw you have helped me several times in the past with information about players, teams, and situations before. I very much value and aprecciate your input.

Finally, "concise", which I'm kind of sure you took it correctly, was a compliment. I implied your initial post that I responded to was well written with a very coherent thought process. I realize I spell bad, but I write in a cognizant essay fassion. With alot of forum message poster's here at the Cafe it gets hard to follow their thought process if they start makeing leaps after a sentance or two. Not to gripe or rag on the forums as alot of times I'm drunk posting here, so good luck makeing sense of what I write then :-D , but it gets hard at times to follow what people are implying. "Concise" was simply a compliment for you getting your point across directly ;-D .
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Jun 09, 2004 5:27 am

Agree to disagree sounds good. And about the "concise" thing, I wasn't sure if you were sarcastic or not, it's hard to recognize tone through a computer.

Anyway, Renteria better get his ass in gear. I think I might go make a few offers for him :-?
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