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Burn #1 waiver for Escobar???

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Burn #1 waiver for Escobar???

Postby dannahann » Wed Jun 26, 2002 4:37 pm

First and most important, I've read some of the posts and this seems like the kind of proffessional board I've been searching for. Very nice product and assemblege of users.

My question: Should I burn my #1 priority to claim Escobar off waivers?

Background:

League: 12 team H2H, 6x6, (AL/NL) , 20 active + 2DL slots, keepers = 5 players (1 SP, 1RP, 1OF, 1CI + a player at any position not drafted in rnds 1-13 or kept the previous season). Pitching cats = W,CG,SV,K,ERA,OPS, No maximum innings. No maximum transactions.

My specifics: 1st place but only by a game and a half. Saves USED TO BE an almost auto win for me (Gagne, Nen, Guardado) but after trading Eddie (for J. Vazquez) 5 weeks ago it's always a tight category.

Competition:
This league is extremely competitive, the bottom team is at .456 winning % and the top team .561%, (13 1/2 games out). I know 8 of these owners tendencies well as we're in keeper hockey and football leagues as well. But we added 3 "new" baseball guys this season and their moves can catch us off guard.

Point of reference: Acevedo (recently flaming out just like Escobar) just went through his waiver time and was claimed by the #3 waiver guy (middle pack in standings) he also has Izzy, Foulke, and Graves.

My hesitation: I'm worried these new guys will cut loose a better player (while injured) as they've shown in the past Wade Miller and Juan Gone understandably went to the #1 waiver guys when our "newbies" panicked.

Do I claim Escobar even though I've got 2 great closers or hold my position hoping for a "bigger prize"? Thanks, Dan.
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hit a posting glitch?

Postby dannahann » Wed Jun 26, 2002 4:45 pm

for some reason my username wasn't included in this Escobar post. As a brand new board member (1st post) I wanted to sign it as user accountability is one of the real nice qualities THIS board seems to have.

[Message by menyak: Don't know, but it was definitely not our fault, as we never make mistakes. ;-) Anyway, I've covered the traces of the mistake that nobody made, especially not us...]
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Postby Arlo » Wed Jun 26, 2002 6:53 pm

Welcome, dannahann! That sort of situation is always extremely tough, because the lure of a bigger prize is so enticing. I'm not at all sure that there's a "right" answer here...

On the one hand, if the saves category is now tight (and your league is highly competitive), a closer will give you a huge lift (I like the trade for Vazquez, by the way). It can be wonderfully reassuring to have a category practically in the bag before the games even begin. Escobar has good stuff, and you're only asking for saves from him.

Plus, it's getting to be that point in the season where it's becoming less and less likely that truly great players will be dropped because of slumps or injuries. In all likelihood, the best waiver treasures happened earlier.

On the other hand, you never know what other owners will do. Besides, if your league uses waivers for minor leaguers, there are several names you might not want to miss when they're called up (Phelps comes to mind, for one). Plus, Escobar hasn't looked very sharp recently, giving up a run or more in four of his last five outings. His job doesn't seem to be in danger yet, but that can change in a hurry.

It's an awfully tough decision. Personally, I think I'd want Escobar on my team and would be willing to sacrifice the top waiver spot. When you're in a tight race, the bird in the hand is usually a pretty good choice. Unless you have a couple teams that ignore saves on your schedule in the upcoming weeks, I'd pick him up. I suggest you follow your own instincts and style of play here, though.


As to the user accountability, I've seen some problems with imitation posts - usually of the insulting variety - on other boards, which I believe you're refering to. While we don't require Cafe visitors to register, it does provide protection against this sort of thing (not that we've had any problems whatsoever so far). I'll certainly pass this and the possible glitch on to webmeister menyak. And thanks for the kind words about the site!
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Postby tallmike » Wed Jun 26, 2002 9:49 pm

i'll echo the enjoyment post - relatively new user and already hooked.

I'm inclined to the bird in the hand. If you're in first and solidifying with Escobar - take him and run. Lot's can change but as Arlo said there is increasingly lower likelihood of getting a stud on waivers.

Take Kelvim is my vote.
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Postby timkell » Thu Jun 27, 2002 11:16 am

Agreed from here as well. At this point in the season, waiver wire priority is much less important. Don't over think. If your team would be better with Escobar, grab him. If you don't, someone else will, and you just might lose that category. You wouldn't want that to happen. No sense waiting around for something that MIGHT happen when you can work on something that's definite.
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Postby dannahann » Thu Jun 27, 2002 12:03 pm

Thanks for the insightful advice guys, it helped greatly. You guys are right, the bigname drops all occured B4 May 7th in my league, the best players recently released are Beltre, Escobar, and Dempster. I'm pretty sure I'll follow up and get my Escobar claim in by tonites deadline but hoped to bounce a couple things more off you guys first.

As Arlo suggested, I looked into my upcoming matchups (DUHH!!!) I should beat 2 of the next 3 guys in saves with or without adding Escobar. Kelvim might make the difference in the 3rd match as his 2 current closers (Kaz, Rivera) mimic mine (Nen, Gagne). I also found another viable option to nab a "potential" closer and keep the waiver spot. Tom Gordon is available (FA) and I understand he's now rehabbing in the minors. He should be up soon, do you guys think he'll assume the closers role in 3-4 weeks?

Thanks again, Dan
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Postby Arlo » Thu Jun 27, 2002 12:44 pm

Gordon's rehab seems to have gone remarkably well so far. However, I don't think even The Girl who Loved him could predict how the Cubs' bullpen situation will eventually turn out with any degree of accuracy. The rumors that Alfonseca will be traded to the Angels have died down for the time being, although that's still an option. If the right offer is on the table (for any member of their bullpen), the Cubs will probably make a deal, but that doesn't mean it will definitely happen, especially with a strike/work stoppage looming.

Right now, I'd say the odds of Gordon closing again are just a tad under 50%. It would be a terrific comeback story though, wouldn't it?

Still, unless there are several potential free closers (Leskanic, Zimmerman, possibly Irabu now) just waiting to be grabbed in your league, I'd pick up Escobar with the waiver pick (and Gordon as well, if you have the roster/dl slot to spare), schedule notwithstanding. There will certainly be several more closers who will become available later in the season, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't grab one now. If the players you would be waiting for fall in the Beltre to Dempster range, that's all the more reason to take Escobar, who could presumably be traded for more than that as long as he's collecting saves.

I realize that it's tempting to wait a bit longer for a true gem, but I'd go with the known quantity here. (Easy said when it's not my team, of course... :-D .)
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Postby dannahann » Thu Jun 27, 2002 7:42 pm

Thanks again Arlo,
I staked my claim for Escobar and he'll be mine overnite. (now watch some bozo waive Sheffield) :-o
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Postby Arlo » Fri Jun 28, 2002 5:32 am

Well sure, now that you've made your claim, Murphy's law will grab you. Expect Bonds on the wire after his next dugout scuffle... :-D
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