Anybody convinced after tonight that Brown can still be a top 5 SP? 6 IPs, only 3 Hits, 4 Ks, and 1 BB. Folks, I would consider this an off night. Brown would usually have more Ks than 4 & would go deeper than 6 innings. But still, this is just a glimpse of what Brown can do. Once he stretches his arm out a little, he's going to be awesome this year. Even if I get 1/2 a year of this production, I'm going to be tickled pink. He was my 15th round draft pick (and 6th SP picked). Yet, he's better than the #1s on most teams. Somebody pinch me.
Kevin Brown's fastball was back in the mid-90s in spring training. His best stuff is back this year, there will be lots of people who get a superstar pitcher for practically nothing, but how long will he stay healthy? I agree that half a year of Kevin Brown and then the choice pick of a free agent SP is better than say a full season gamble on someone like Josh Beckett, because we know how good Brown can be, but not Beckett, who has yet to prove he can be effective.
You might find a decent pitcher this year on the wire, like Padilla or Lawrence last year. But I seriously doubt that anybody will find a surprise pitcher who will give you top #5 numbers. Also, Kevin Brown has had a rough go with injuries the last two years. But otherwise, he's been a fairly healthy player. And pitchers have proven that they can be succesful well into their late 30s and early 40s. Injuries also happen to everybody -- young, old, good injury history & bad. Jeter's unforeseen injury is the perfect example. So any player can get hurt on any given day. But as long as Brown is putting up Randy, Schilling, and Pedro numbers, and there are no complaints of pain, why would I trade the guy based on the pure speculation that another injury lingers? Seriously, I don't get it. It's not uncommon for a player to go through a rough 1 or 2 year stretch, and then get the problem fixed, and come back strong. Doctors do a good job these days. Further, I've got Pedro on my team now. And the thought of having a 1-2 punch of Pedro and
Brown is enough to make me laugh myself silly at night.
All of that said, the point I would like to stress is that I think it's a bad idea to try and predict what players will get injured -- when injuries are inherently unpredictable. So I think it's best for a fantasy owner to accumulate as many of the best players in baseball, and then let the chips fall where they may with injuries.
Last edited by kcs261 on Thu Apr 03, 2003 3:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
You nailed that one! Brown is a steal. I got him rd 17 and took some jeers for even drafting him period. WHO'S LAUGHING NOW?!?!? Well for now they are shut up. Let's hope he's healthy for a good bit of the season. For a late round pickup like everyone.. to compliment my Pedro,Zito,Morris,Pineiro,Ishii,Padilla and Smoltz.. I'm loving life. I went for a new approach this year. Traded away some offense to have a kickin pitching staff. Lets hope they all stay healthy!!
I had to drop him in my salary cap keeper league because he was my first pick, #3 overall three seasons ago and simply was too expensive. Dropping him alone got me under the cap easily.
I also have Schilling, so I have an ace but I'd love to have Brown, too. I guess he'll be pitching the full season but not as many innings as he used to. Congrats on drafting the best sleeper in years!
kcs261 wrote: But I seriously doubt that anybody will find a surprise pitcher who will give you top #5 numbers. And the thought of having a 1-2 punch of Pedro and Brown is enough to make me laugh myself silly at night. So I think it's best for a fantasy owner to accumulate as many of the best players in baseball, and then let the chips fall where they may with injuries.
Brown looked good, but i wouldnt start laughing till say his 25th start. Top 5 pitcher is really stretching it. That means he will be in Zito/Oswalt country. Brown is a good pick congrats, but i would still trade him for a good sp. It is ironic you are all over KB, yet you told everyone to not draft Arod over his injury. Read your last sentence?
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It is ironic you are all over KB, yet you told everyone to not draft Arod over his injury. Read your last sentence?
Hootie: First of all, I told people not to draft A-Rod in the first round. I didn't tell people not to draft him at all. And needless to say, I wouldn't draft Brown in the first round, either.
However, the two situations are entirely different. With A-Rod, he WAS just diagnosed with an injury (in fact, the same injury -- a herniated disc -- that put Brown out last season with back surgery). So it's not speculative to assert that A-Rod could get hurt at some time in the future -- when he is suffering from an ailment now.
But with Brown, what's the injury? The brother was hurt. But he had surgery and the problem is fixed, as far as anybody can tell. So Brown is not hurt now.
To put it another way, it makes sense not to draft a guy/or trade a guy because he HAS an ailment. But it makes little sense to me not to draft/or a trade a guy based on speculation only that he could get hurt at some point in the future -- especially when the upside the player offers is infinite.
In any case, if I get 1/2 a year out of Brown with this production, that would be more than I could ask for with my 15th pick. In the first week of the season, I'm so thoroughly demolishing my opposition that I'll create a huge first half lead (with Brown) at the current pace. I also have five other quality starters who I drafted ahead of Brown (Pedro, Mussina, Vazquez, Ramon Ortiz, and Brad Radke), and four other guys with serious potential (Ainsworth, Peavy, Lohse, and Graves) should Brown go down at any point.
I've got to give HOOTIE props for being attentive enough to call kcs261 on the irony of his A-Rod injury prediction thing, but I also think kcs261 defended himself well. However, I must say that I think A-Rod will not at all be affected from the injury, and even if there's a chance, I'll have to quote kcs261 and say
let the chips fall where they may
The upside of A-Rod is just too much to let him slip by. The reports say he can play %100, and that's enough for me.