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Trade rumors everywhere round Seattle even Ichiro not Safe??

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Postby blankman » Mon May 31, 2004 12:47 am

HOOTIE wrote:
bibsybob wrote:maybe theres that whole runs created stat or something like that, just dont know how taht works. But how do u compare 120 runs to 120 rbi.


Runs and rbis are team dependent stats, influenced alot by # of abs, spot in order. Unless a player hrs, he's totally dependent on his team to get either. Runs created has nothing to do with either.

BLANKMAN Nice job. ;-D
I have never noticed you as a sabermetric person before? Was i sleeping, or did you turn over a new leaf?


I was originally against the movement, because I liked what I knew- batting averages, RBIs, Runs. Knowledge of these stats was I guess somewhat comforting because I thought I could determine who was better by just looking at the triple crown numbers.

After reading a lot of your posts and seeing how you won pretty much every debate with your stats and after reading some of Bill James' stuff, I guess you could say I've turned over a new leaf. I still do tend to look at what I know more about first, but I'm trying to change.

It also helps that these stats back up the assertion I had in 2001 that Ichiro was overrated without knowing anything about sabermetrics at the time. I was incredibly mad when Ichiro won ROY instead of Soriano (although the rules stated Ichiro as a rookie and I will admit that he was more deserving of an award over Soriano) but when he got MVP over Giambi, who was on Oakland at the time (no team bias there) I was extremely mad. Its kind of interesting how voters changed their definition of rookie last yr with Matsui, but thats another story. ;-)
Last edited by blankman on Mon May 31, 2004 12:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby HOOTIE » Mon May 31, 2004 12:47 am

Runs and rbis are dependent on a lineup. That's why they are misleading.

Runs created is a way to value a hitter of what he does himself. Runs created is not dependent on the team.

Here is the simple formula.

(Hits + Walks) * (Total Bases) / (Abs + Walks).
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Postby HOOTIE » Mon May 31, 2004 12:49 am

Capnpitz wrote:There's a possibility here that I think is being missed: just because some players who are as good or better than Ichiro don't have as much prestige as he does doesn't necessarily mean he is overrated. Maybe Salmon et al are simply underrated. Maybe they are rated lower than they should be, whereas Ichiro is getting what he deserves. Maybe Ichiro is just...rated.



Maybe, but look at the RF link on page 1. He's almost at the bottom for RF OPS. His 01 year was star material. He's living off that year.
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Postby blankman » Mon May 31, 2004 12:54 am

Capnpitz wrote:There's a possibility here that I think is being missed: just because some players who are as good or better than Ichiro don't have as much prestige as he does doesn't necessarily mean he is overrated. Maybe Salmon et al are simply underrated. Maybe they are rated lower than they should be, whereas Ichiro is getting what he deserves. Maybe Ichiro is just...rated.


Interesting comment, but I still assert that Ichiro IS overrated. Why? Because Ichiro is typically identified as a superstar, a player on the same level as players such as Manny, Maggs, Vlad. He is clearly not on this level and since so many people think he IS on that level, he is overrated. Not to spark more arguement, but the case was the same with Jeter a year or two ago, when many people (most of them not fantasy players) thought he was on the same level as A-Rod.
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Postby bibsybob » Mon May 31, 2004 12:56 am

Ppl seem to think these stats create a universal value system in which to weigh players who do different things. Its a bit more complicated than that and many more factors have to be calculated in... Anyway, back to original post, ichiro is in my mind overrated and it is indeed that stellar first year that has kept him in ppl's minds as the prototypical and model leadoff guy. He has dropped off quite a bit.
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Postby HOOTIE » Mon May 31, 2004 1:03 am

BLANKMAN Nice to see you expanded your horizons. Yes, many want to stay with the simple stuff. Heck, i didn't want to give up cassettes for cds lol. But i quickly learned cds were much better. And i quickly learned simple stats don't give REAL value.

Btw, Giambi was the mvp in 01. While the win shares were fairly close, due mainly to defense and speed,


Giambi 38
Ichiro 36

OPS+ was a joke

Giambi 202
Ichiro 127

And runs created had a huge difference

Giambi 162
Ichiro 119

Giambi CREATED 43 more runs. That's alot.

As a Seattle fan, sure i will take the mvp that year. But Giambi was the true mvp.
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Postby blankman » Mon May 31, 2004 1:05 am

HOOTIE wrote:Btw, Giambi was the mvp in 01. While the win shares were fairly close, due mainly to defense and speed,

As a Seattle fan, sure i will take the mvp that year. But Giambi was the true mvp.


Glad to see you agree. I sent you a PM about Win Shares; if you could check that out, it'd be great. I've got to get to bed now though, I'll check back on this topic when I get up.
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Postby HOOTIE » Mon May 31, 2004 1:18 am

bibsybob wrote:Ppl seem to think these stats create a universal value system in which to weigh players who do different things. Its a bit more complicated than that and many more factors have to be calculated in...


Give me the factors that need to be calculated in?

Hitters may do different things, but the job of every hitter is still to create runs.
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Postby bibsybob » Mon May 31, 2004 1:51 am

factors such as where they hit in the order, potency of lineup, etc. Think of it this way, how will ichiro fare in the middle of the order as a number 3 hitter? How about some guy like salmon as leadoff. yes, i will agree that they both attempt to score runs in whatever way possible. However, certain types of hitters fit more into a certain role such as leadoff because of the frequency they get on base, mobility around the bases, and more. They get into position for the power hitters behind them to drive them in. power hitters may have a high on base percentage but they lack speed and the nature of the game dictates that these hitters hit in a certain part of the order where they can be most effective, which is driving in the "table-setters." In terms of fantasy value, the categorization is even further emphasized because of the different categories in which they help out.
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Postby Tavish » Mon May 31, 2004 2:43 am

Not to turn this into one of my Bill James is a hard headed SOB, but Runs Created has been proven to breakdown in accuracy with high .OPS players. You should take a look at BaseRuns, which is much more accurate (albeit not a pretty algorithm like RC). Both are still difficult to apply directly to players since they are team oriented calculations, but I guess would work ok for quick comparison. I won't even get into the problems with Win Shares but I digress.

Continue with the trade rumors. ;-D
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