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Alfonseca

Postby umjewboy » Mon Jun 24, 2002 12:07 pm

Anyone know the odds of Alfonseca getting dealt? more than 50% less than 50? about 50? I'm in an NL-only league, could use some saves help, but if he gets dealt he becomes utterly useless to me. He' s been offered to me in exchange for Brent Butler, straight up.

Other information that's probably useful: 11 team, NL-Only, 5 x 5 keeper league. Butler is signed at $5 through 2004 and Alfonseca is signed at $19 through 2003. Salary cap is $280. Alfonseca would replace Guillermo Mota in the starting lineup, whereas Butler would be replaced by, ugh, either Delino DeShields or Ronnie Belliard. Finally, my placement in categories are (and everything except strikeouts, I can move up in)....AVG (4) HR (3) RBI (7) RUNS (7) SB (7, but just acquired Luis Castillo, so subject to change very shortly), W (4) SV (4) ERA (6) WHIP (1) SO (6, like 60 down from 5, thats why I probably won't move up)

Is making this trade worth the gamble that Alfonseca gets moved and becomes useless? What do people think here?
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Postby Arlo » Mon Jun 24, 2002 5:02 pm

It's very, very hard to try to put a percentage on something like this, so take this with a grain of salt... All things considered, I'd say the odds of a trade involving Alfonseca are slightly higher than 50% (55-60?). Assuming Gordon's recovery goes well (not quite a given yet), shopping Alfonseca would make sense for the Cubs, both in terms of their needs and their salary situation.

The recent rumor involving the Angels may or may not actually come to pass, but there's enough logic (as well as confirmation that the Angels are indeed interested) to take it seriously.

Keep in mind that even if he stays in Chicago, he may wind up playing second fiddle to Gordon. On the other hand, it's also conceivable that he is traded to a team that hands hiom the closer's job. There a lots of unknowns in this equation, not the least of which is the status of the talks between players and owners...

It's a tough call now that you have Castillo. If butler keeps playing the way he has so far, at least at Coors, he'll be worth a closer with greater job security. Of course he might also fizzle, leaving you with nothing. Either way, it's a gamble.

If you can, see if there are any better offers out there for Butler. Barring that, try to acquire Tom Gordon. If you succeed and complete this deal, you'd be guaranteed the Cubs' saves.

If neither works, you're left with a tough choice. I'd probably stick with Butler - that's a great price for a player of his potential in his situation, and the odds that he'll lose his job seem smaller than those of Alfonseca losing his.
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Postby AirTimid » Mon Jun 24, 2002 10:06 pm

From everything i've read, Gordon will be the setup man in Chi-town if/when he comes back. A team can't put much faith in a guy who's been seriously hurt the last few years. If the Cubs do deal Alfonseca, it's basically a signal they've given up on this year and are dumping salary. Poor Cubs fans.
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Postby Arlo » Tue Jun 25, 2002 4:06 am

I'm not sure - that would seem logical, but the Cubs have flip-flopped on this before. Gordon should have the setup role initially, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that he'll end the season there (assuming a full recovery).

Also, it's possible that the Cubs could deal Gordon after he shows he can pitch. Seems to me that just about anything is possible here, which doesn't make it easy on fantasy owners...
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