This is barebone basic, and I've never done them myself, although I'd like to try sometime. But, take 70% of the players' last year, 20% of their stats two years ago, and 10% of their stats three years ago. Just a thought though. For rookies, I'm not sure!!!
I use 3-5 year averages to develop my projections but I don't have a magic mathematical formula that pops out golden eggs.
What I do is a create a profile of each hitter based on three year averages. What I mean by a profile is a matchup of the stats with the player's age and experience while producing those stats.
Using the Lahman database I then (this is automated) compare that profile against every player who has ever played looking for matching profiles. A matching profile doesn't neccesarily have the same stats but it does have the same trends, meaning that the two players compared matured in a similar way.
All the matches are then compared to find the average trend for each player that matches the profile. I then apply that trend to the players stats from last year. I can't take credit for this system I copied it from another source but you will find (at least I have) that this system is much more accurate than projection formulas.
Does that make sense? If not I will try to explain it better LOL.
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
Chuckles wrote:This is barebone basic, and I've never done them myself, although I'd like to try sometime. But, take 70% of the players' last year, 20% of their stats two years ago, and 10% of their stats three years ago. Just a thought though. For rookies, I'm not sure!!!
I actually disagree with this formula. I have run these calculations before with dollar values and the results make me think this formula is garbage. Basically about 2/3 of all players have a change of $5 or greater in their value from their previous year, while 1/3 stay within $5 value of the previous year.
So basically, if anything the 2 previous years should be valued higher than the last.
"I am ready to meet my Maker. Whether my Maker is prepared for the great ordeal of meeting me is another matter."
- Sir Winston Churchill