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I want to create my own Projections!

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I want to create my own Projections!

Postby GucciBaseballs » Wed May 26, 2004 6:05 pm

Most of us take projections from big services. But we never really think about how they come up with these projections.

What i want to do is create my own set of projections and be able to back each one up mathematically.

I want to start off by using 3 year averages, but then after that I am lost...

Basically, what do you guys who make your own projections use to formulate them? And do you have any methods that you think are worth a shot (I will test them for you)? Help me please ;-)
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Postby GucciBaseballs » Wed May 26, 2004 6:06 pm

Madison and Wveres i know you guys make your own, and i am really looking foward to hearing what you guys use.
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Postby Chuckles » Wed May 26, 2004 6:18 pm

This is barebone basic, and I've never done them myself, although I'd like to try sometime. But, take 70% of the players' last year, 20% of their stats two years ago, and 10% of their stats three years ago. Just a thought though. For rookies, I'm not sure!!!
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Postby Amazinz » Wed May 26, 2004 6:24 pm

I use 3-5 year averages to develop my projections but I don't have a magic mathematical formula that pops out golden eggs. :-b

What I do is a create a profile of each hitter based on three year averages. What I mean by a profile is a matchup of the stats with the player's age and experience while producing those stats.

Using the Lahman database I then (this is automated) compare that profile against every player who has ever played looking for matching profiles. A matching profile doesn't neccesarily have the same stats but it does have the same trends, meaning that the two players compared matured in a similar way.

All the matches are then compared to find the average trend for each player that matches the profile. I then apply that trend to the players stats from last year. I can't take credit for this system I copied it from another source but you will find (at least I have) that this system is much more accurate than projection formulas.

Does that make sense? If not I will try to explain it better LOL. :-D
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Wed May 26, 2004 6:32 pm

Interesting, but doesnt that take a hell of a long time? And what is the Lahman database?
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Postby GucciBaseballs » Wed May 26, 2004 6:33 pm

Chuckles wrote:This is barebone basic, and I've never done them myself, although I'd like to try sometime. But, take 70% of the players' last year, 20% of their stats two years ago, and 10% of their stats three years ago. Just a thought though. For rookies, I'm not sure!!!


I actually disagree with this formula. I have run these calculations before with dollar values and the results make me think this formula is garbage. Basically about 2/3 of all players have a change of $5 or greater in their value from their previous year, while 1/3 stay within $5 value of the previous year.

So basically, if anything the 2 previous years should be valued higher than the last.
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Postby Amazinz » Wed May 26, 2004 6:34 pm

Bloody Nipples wrote:Interesting, but doesnt that take a hell of a long time? And what is the Lahman database?

This is the Lahman database. A must have for any serious stats junkie and its free! :-D

It would take a long time to do by hand but computers are wonderful inventions. :-)
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Wed May 26, 2004 6:36 pm

Amazinz wrote:
Bloody Nipples wrote:Interesting, but doesnt that take a hell of a long time? And what is the Lahman database?

This is the Lahman database. A must have for any serious stats junkie and its free! :-D

It would take a long time to do by hand but computers are wonderful inventions. :-)


Thanks. I'll check that out in a second. Do you use excell to get the projections?
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Postby Amazinz » Wed May 26, 2004 6:38 pm

I use Access and Excel but I do most of the work by writing a script or a small program.
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Postby GucciBaseballs » Wed May 26, 2004 6:39 pm

Amazinz wrote:I use Access and Excel but I do most of the work by writing a script or a small program.


thanx for the help amazinz. I'm sure i can find some use for those when i make projections.

Does anybody have a set of formulas that they like to use. I know some people have some age based formulas.
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