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Struggling SP with a 48/17 K:BB ratio?

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Struggling SP with a 48/17 K:BB ratio?

Postby G-Man » Tue May 25, 2004 7:55 am

interestingly enough this is the ratio that johan santana is sporting right now. kind of hard to believe considering he is getting bombed lately (although his 1.5+ WHIP captures that a bit more accurately).

Does anyone value K:BB as carrying its weight against other measures like Opponent BA and WHIP?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue May 25, 2004 1:33 pm

The three most important statistics for judging a pitcher's current and future performance are HR per 9 innings pitched, K per 9 innings pitched, and K/BB. Hits are heavily influenced by defense and luck, so if you see a pitcher who is doing well on these other three and mainly having high ERAs because of opponent's batting average, I'd stick with him. The defense might not change, but the luck probably will.
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Re: Struggling SP with a 48/17 K:BB ratio?

Postby slomo007 » Tue May 25, 2004 1:48 pm

G-Man wrote:
Does anyone value K:BB as carrying its weight against other measures like Opponent BA and WHIP?


I would be willing to bet Zito is God doesn't. :-b
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Postby DarkShadow » Tue May 25, 2004 2:00 pm

Santana's also given up a lot of HRs
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Postby G-Man » Tue May 25, 2004 2:24 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Hits are heavily influenced by defense and luck


I agree to an extent with this statement, however even groundball pitchers are shielded by the fact that they are not impacted by errors but ARE rewarded for outstanding defensive plays. Obviously luck has something to do with it (bloopers falling in, etc) but the reason I really like this ratio is that it minimizes the "balls in play" aspect and thus hedges the impact that your team defense has (the counter to this is that, for example, an AB resulting in a K may not reflect a ball on the previous pitch that was hit fair but the line judge erroneously ruled it foul).
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Postby Registered_Guest » Tue May 25, 2004 4:28 pm

You don't benefit much being a groundball pitcher on the Metrodome's turf. Being a groundball pitcher has more effects for someone like Zambrano with the slow grass of Wrigley. Santana's given up a bunch of HR's as well.

Santana threw far too many fastballs to the Sox over the weekend. The hits were rockets of the Sox bats (whether on the ground threw the INF or shots over the fence). I

I'd stick with Santana. He'd look much more impressive pitching the lefty-hitting heavy AL West. The Twins can't hit lefties if their life depended on it, but unfortunately he pitches for them. :~(
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Postby slomo007 » Tue May 25, 2004 4:30 pm

Registered_Guest wrote:You don't benefit much being a groundball pitcher on the Metrodome's turf. Being a groundball pitcher has more effects for someone like Zambrano with the slow grass of Wrigley. Santana's given up a bunch of HR's as well.

Santana threw far too many fastballs to the Sox over the weekend. The hits were rockets of the Sox bats (whether on the ground threw the INF or shots over the fence). I

I'd stick with Santana. He'd look much more impressive pitching the lefty-hitting heavy AL West. The Twins can't hit lefties if their life depended on it, but unfortunately he pitches for them. :~(


The Metrodome has new, thicker turf this year. It's actually advantageous to ground-ballers.
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Postby thetongueofire » Tue May 25, 2004 4:43 pm

different pitchers have different styles and tendencies... so im hoping that no ones out there comparing two completely random pitchers. O:-)

but i do agree that these K related stats are pretty telling as long as youre comparing them to a picthers past numbers and kinda factoring in what kind of opponents hes faced...
[size=10]Manny Ramirez....$20 million
Pedro Martinez....$17.5 million
Curt Schilling...$12 million (and a $2 million bonus)
Never hearing a Yankee fan chant 1918 again...priceless. [/size]
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Postby trac02 » Tue May 25, 2004 4:46 pm

slomo007 wrote:
The Metrodome has new, thicker turf this year. It's actually advantageous to ground-ballers.


Except that it's causing errors all over the place. I was watching Santana's last start and they were talking about how bad the turf was making the Twins fielders look this year -- gave some absurd stat about the number of errors the infield has made this year. Balls take funny hops and generally handcuff the fielders. Saw this a couple times in the Santana start.
Oliver Perez watch

3-3, 3.74 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 10 starts

23 BB, 8 HR and 72 K in 65 IP (9.97 K/9)

2 complete games, 1 shutout
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Postby slomo007 » Tue May 25, 2004 4:47 pm

Makes sense....it's a transition period. It would be a good time to make a move for Santana knowing that...by the middle of the season, they will have the turf figured out.
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